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Analyse CAC40 par Anas
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Analyse CAC40 par Anas

  #1771 (permalink)
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Avant clôture:


Le chômage US, meilleur que prévu, a provoqué un mini crash obligataire en intraday mais ajouté aux variations de ces dernières semaines, la facture devient salée pour les fonds.

Celà provoque des ventes forcées sur l'ensemble des actifs y compris les actions.

Graphiquement, on peut toujours monter à 3870/80 ou au moins faire un double top à 3840 en début de semaine prochaine. Mais c'est la baisse qui reprendra.

Le CAC se defend bien.

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  #1772 (permalink)
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Je vais faire le point graphiquement dès ce soir vers 19h car pas disponible ce week-end.

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  #1773 (permalink)
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ES journalier:

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CAC hebdomadaire:

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CAC journalier:

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  #1774 (permalink)
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DAX:

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  #1775 (permalink)
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DAX:

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Bonsoir Anas

Merci pour le Dax - je vois toujours ces 7340 comme support très probable (situation discuté
dans les 2 threads avec les graphs)
On verra les prochains mouvement dès Mercredi prochain!

Bon weekend
GFIs1

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  #1776 (permalink)
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Les indicateurs de sentiment militent pour 2 à 3 petites séances de hausse encore. De quoi probablement aller à 3870/80 max 3900/10 (petit cercle orange) avant reprise de la baisse. ES 1640/45.

Ca ne se fera pas en ligne droite. Je posterai un graph 30 mn lundi matin pour le chemin.

Bon week-end à tous

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  #1777 (permalink)
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AnasParis View Post
Bonjour Marcopolo

Merci de prendre de mes nouvelles !! je vis avec ...

Quand tu auras le temps, ça serait bien que tu nous dises en quelques lignes comment ta ville fête le 4 juillet

Bonjour Anas,

Le 4th aux USA, c'est surtout une fete famille / amis avec barbecue pendant l'apres-midi. Un break qui permet de se decompresser - y'a pas beaucoup de jour feries ici.... Il y a en general un feu d'artifice le soir mais cette annee c'etait pluie.... Il ya un petit defile local dans les villes parfois... mais c'est pas trop mon truc...

Les locaux ne fetent pas le 14th Juillet.... mais bon ca sera l'occasion d'un bon petit repas....

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Marche a un croisement.... A voir si la tendance haussiere (indices) et baissiere (bonds) continue.... ou pas....
J'ai rajoute le Russell 2000 qui est plus volatile que SP 500 et est revenu au plus haut...

News:
07/08 & 07/09:
Rien aux US
ECB President Draghi Speaks @ 08:30 EST & 09:30 EST
07/10:
FOMC Minutes (important) @14:00 EST
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks (important) @16:10 EST
07/11:
Jobless Claims (important) / Import and Export Prices (moyen) @08:30 EST
Treasury Budget (moyen) @14:00 EST
07/12:
Producer Price Index (important) @08:30 EST
Consumer Sentiment (moyen) @09:55 EST
FOMC Member Bullard Speaks @13:00 EST
2013 Economic Calendar
FRB: What's Next
Economic Calendar - Investing.com

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  #1779 (permalink)
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bonjour Analyse du jour

Indice CAC40

L'été boursier pourrait être volatile !

Le CAC40 réagit ce matin en reprenant de la hauteur mais nous pensons que l'alternance devrait rester de mise car le contexte actuel ne devrait guère changer tout au long de l'été !
Même si la BCE a assuré de son soutien, les perspectives de croissance ont été mises de coté au moins jusqu'à la fin de l'année et un risque de tensions demeurera sur les pays de la Zone Euro.
Au-delà de cet aspect, les résultats trimestriels des sociétés américaines qui pourront servir de catalyseur supplémentaire seront très observés car ils sont attendus plus mitigés !
A noter que cette semaine et compte tenu des considérations techniques, le CAC40 restera probablement entre 3830/3850 et 3750/3715 au plus près et entre 3880/3890 et 3670/3660 au plus large.

En intraday, la tendance restera positive au-dessus de 3750 !

A court terme, il faut privilégier le sens acheteur au-dessus de 3750 pour viser 3840 (+ ou - 10 points) et dans l'idéal 3880/3890 (Stop > 3715). 3890 ne devrait pas être débordé en début de semaine.
Dans le cas contraire, le CAC40 doit s'installer au-delà de ce palier important pour assurer une continuité. Au-dessus de 3890, le prochain objectif de référence serait 3980 (+ haut de juin).

A contrario, 3755 a servi de soutien vendredi soir (+ bas à 3751 sur le contrat future juillet). De ce palier, une survente en base 1 heure a été constatée et elle a permis un rebond technique marqué.
Néanmoins, en l'absence de catalyseur, ce rebond restera probablement limité. La stratégie du jour consisterait à vendre au plus près contre 3825 ou au mieux contre 3850 pour jouer un nouveau reflux en direction du point bas du 5 juillet (Stop de protection > 3890 en clôture). Dans un autre cas, seule une clôture sous 3750 mettrait à mal la dernière configuration haussière actuelle. En deçà de 3750,
la zone 3670/3660 reste le palier à enfoncer pour confirmer un signal de vente. Même le si dernier signal reste haussier avec une réplique possible en direction de 3880/3890, nous pensons que pour neutraliser le risque d'une rechute, il faudra au minimum s'inscrire au-dessus de 3832 en clôture, ce qui sera très difficile sans vrai motif.

En conclusion, pour l'instant, il n'y a aucune raison de croire que le CAC40 sorte par le haut ou par le bas de la zone principale placée entre 3890 et 3660

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Earnings 3ieme trimestre arrive

Bespoke Investment Group - Think BIG - Earnings Reports by Day This Earnings*Season
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liste: Earnings Calendar - 2013 Economic Events Calendar - TheStreet

*** Correction: c'est le2ieme trimestre *******


Last edited by marcopolo1; July 9th, 2013 at 10:05 AM. Reason: erreur dans trimestre
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