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Analyse CAC40 par Anas
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Analyse CAC40 par Anas

  #1751 (permalink)
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Changement de ton de la BCE. Discours de Draghi contradictoire d'un mois à l'autre afin de calmer les marchés.


CAC journalier:

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La baisse par la suite n'est pas remise en cause mais il faut que je revois les niveaux. J'ai besoin d'un peu de temps.

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Le changement de ton de la BCE concerne le programme LTRO dont elle a parlé en juillet 2012 et qui avait fait monter les marchés à l'époque.

La vérité est que la BCE achète déjà les dettes souveraines de plusieurs pays européens en difficulté depuis l'époque et accepte en garantie les obligations de tout le monde sauf Chypre depuis quelques jours.

Il n y a rien de nouveau en réalité. Ca ne va rien changer à l'économie, car rien ne va ni vers les entreprises ni vers les consommateurs.

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Bonjour,

J'ai rien de nouveau par rapport à hier soir. Une possible conso aujourd'hui à +/- 3770 après avoir touché 3823. Achat sur repli pour viser 3870/80 sachant qu'il y a une résistance entre 3823 et 3840 (gap du 20 juin) mais qui cassera je pense.

Si on arrive à 3870/80, ce niveau est une résistance aussi (17/18/19 juin) et provoquera au moins une conso (vers 3800?) avant reprise de la hausse vers 3920. Ce sont ces deux niveaux qui sont probable pour le moment. Si on doit aller au dessus, vers 4000/4020 par exemple, ça dependera de l'évolution de la force relative des indices européens par-rapport aux indices US.

Comme les US étaient fermés hier, je ne peux pas consulter un ensemble d'indiacteurs. Donc pour le moment achat sur repli si c'est possible à 3770 objectif 3870/80 en attendant les clôtures hebdo.

Le S&P va probablement monter à 1645/50 et le DJIA à 15320/50. Ca correspond à 3880. Mais il faudrait voir si on monte plus vite qu'eux et dans quelle proportion.

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Mon sentiment pour le moment. A confirmer ce week-end après les clôtures hebdo et la vérification d'un ensemble d'indicateurs.

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Petite précision:

Sur le FCE, la conso peut se faire soit à 3780 soit à 3755 (3768/70 sur le CAC cash). C'est donc la zone large 3755/80 à acheter en cas de repli.

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FCE 30 mn:

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Pour le moment, le CAC s'est arrêté à 3822, juste sous le début de la zone de gap à 3823 et s'est replié.

Ca serait bien de consolider à 3770 pour achat sur repli car pas évident d'acheter sous un gap de 20 pts qui peut renvoyer vers la MM20 jour. Porte de saloon violente.

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Il y a quelques signaux de conso à venir en 30 mn. Zone 3775/55.

Patience.

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CAC 30 mn:

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- Commandes industrielles allemandes (Mensuel) -1,3% 1,2% -2,2% (révisé de -2,3%)

- US Generic Govt 10 Year Yield: 2.55

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