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Analyse CAC40 par Anas
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Analyse CAC40 par Anas

  #1611 (permalink)
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Bonjour anas,

Quand tu dis: "Monter au dessus de 3840 immédiatement ou divergence baissière cachée".
Tu evalues à combien le laps de temps?

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DIANIABDEL View Post
Bonjour anas,

Quand tu dis: "Monter au dessus de 3840 immédiatement ou divergence baissière cachée".
Tu evalues à combien le laps de temps?



Bonjour Abdel,

C'est à dire à partir de cet instant, sans faire marche arrière, même si ça prend 2 ou 3 séances. Comme la hausse du 23 avril et les jours suivants. Si le MACD se retourne à la baisse et que les prix ne sont qu'à 3700 ou 3750 par exemple, c'est la baisse qui suivra.

D'ailleurs, la séance d'hier fût très technique. Elle a démontré que le marché est maîrisé par les bears en ce moment. Il y avait un risque de divergence haussière en journalier tant que les prix ne passent pas en dessous du plus bas du 18 avril. Et bien on a fait 3575 contre 3584 et la divergence haussière invalidée.


Si on monte à 3700, faut voir si l'ES est à 1600 (résistance journalière maintenant) et comment il va réagir. Faut voir le MACD horaire du CAC qui doit rester en dessous de 0 pour la baisse suivante. Si le MACD horaire passe au dessus de 0 c'est que le rebond va continuer les jours suivants.

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En raison de la forte baisse des taux obligataires depuis début mai, un trader à Londres me dit que PIMCO va essuyer la pire perte de son histoire. Environ 10 milliards $ rien qu'en juin.

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Le CAC cash et le FCE n'ont pas du tout les mêmes supports et résistance, toutes UT confondues.


CAC 30mn:

La résistance est à 3664. Sa cassure ouvre la voie des 3710/30


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3710/30 qui est la résistance horaire:

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Pour le moment je vois les choses comme ça. Hausse vers 3710/15 (sur 2 à 3 séances) puis baisse. Sauf si le MACD horaire dépasse 0.

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Feuille de route.


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ESU3 (Sept 2013) - 06/25 PRE-MARKET

Overnight: low: 1558.25 high: 1578.75 - range: ~ 20 pts. ~ 80% volume dessus fermeture 06/24 @ 1566

News:
Durable Goods Orders (hot) @ 08:30EST
S&P Case-Shiller HPI (medium) @ 09:00EST
New Home Sales (hot) / Consumer Confidence (medium) @ 10:00EST

Context: Marche en chute depuis FOMC 06/19. (1649 - 1565 = 84 pts ~ 5%). Rebound a 1553.

Niveaux important: bas 1570 / 1560 haut 1580 / 1686.25 / 1592 / 1596.50 et 1600

Opening: vers 1576 (a 08:40EST)( gap up +10 pts).

Action: Continuation rebound 1553. Test 1686.25 / 1592

**** ZN - 10 years falling at open avec volume - a suivre de pres... ******* (Note: quand je dis 10 ans descend, c'est le prix - le taux lui dont monter)

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Anas,

En daily, y a t-il une possibilité de remonter vers 3830-3840 et construire ainsi une 2ème epaule d'une enorme ETE?

Je ne peux pas poster de graphe.

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Case-Shiller tres bon... ES to the moon - lol.... (1582 deja) et ZN recupere....

Econoday Economic Report: S&P Case-Shiller HPI*June*25,*2013

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DIANIABDEL View Post
Anas,

En daily, y a t-il une possibilité de remonter vers 3830-3840 et construire ainsi une 2ème epaule d'une enorme ETE?

Je ne peux pas poster de graphe.




Non!!

Le max que peut faire l'ES est 1610. Le max que peut faire le CAC est 3730.

La baisse par la suite et la cassure du support à 3570/600 a 9 chances sur 10 de se faire dès le prochain test.

Ce que j'ai proposé aujourd'hui est fouillé et cohérent.


1600/10-------->1490

3710/20 max 3730 -------->3420 max 3380


Puis gros rebond.

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CAC 30mn:

La résistance est maintenant à 3659/60.

On peut monter dès aujourd'hui à 3680 je pense et finir le boulot demain. ES 1590 aujourd'hui puis 1605/10 demain.

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