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Analyse CAC40 par Anas
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Analyse CAC40 par Anas

  #1541 (permalink)
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ngu yen View Post
Ah ! en cloture de quelle unité ?Merci Anas.


3745 c'est en intraday.

En clôture journalière c'est la zone 3730 du 13 juin.

C'est vrai qu'il y a des valeurs dans le vert, d'autres en petite baisse, AXA sur des plus hauts de 2 ans...signe qu'il n y a pas de programmes de ventes chez les gérants et qu'à ce stade ça reste une consolidation.


Last edited by AnasParis; June 20th, 2013 at 05:50 AM.
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  #1542 (permalink)
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Il y a une chose que je rappelle aussi c'est que l'hebdomadiare est passé baissier dès lors qu'on a clôturé vendredi dernier sous 3860. Le rebond à 3920/50 ne devait intervenir qu'en journalier. C'est un pullback dans l'impulsion baissière en cours.

L'objectif actuel de l'hebdo est la zone 3550/600 avec rebond intermédiaire à 3650 mais pas plus que 3720.

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Lien si vous voulez suivre les taux.

Ici le 10 ans US à 2.38 actuellement.


US Generic Govt 10 Year Yield Chart - USGG10YR - Bloomberg

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  #1544 (permalink)
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Désolé de ne pas faire de graph.

Je n'aime pas faire de l'analyse graphique ni trader dans les conditions actuelles. Si ça marche ça relèverait plus de la chance que du bon sens et la pértinence des arguments.

Beaucoup moins de plaisir à trader depuis l'été 2011 et aucun depuis l'été dernier au moment où les banques centrales sont intervenu massivement.

Vous analysez une situation en vous y mettant toutes vos ressources (expérience, connaissances, energie...) et un élément totalement imprévu vient tout casser.

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  #1545 (permalink)
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2,41 à l'instant.

Je reste flat en attendant une entrée short.



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Lien si vous voulez suivre les taux.

Ici le 10 ans US à 2.38 actuellement.


US Generic Govt 10 Year Yield Chart - USGG10YR - Bloomberg


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  #1546 (permalink)
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J'espère que vous avez compris l'idée que je voudrais vous transmettre depuis ce matin. Certes le marché peut rebondir mais il y a une épée de damoclès au dessus qui peut tout anéantir.

Heureusement qu'il n y a pas bcp de porteurs comme en été 2011 sinon on serait à -10%

Là il y a quelques gros opérateurs qui ont les moyens financiers de tenir même pas nous.

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2.42 et ça contamine l'Europe et le reste du monde.

J'espère que l'ensemble des banques centrales vont intervenir d'un coup sinon la FED seule ne peut y faire face.

Pour info, le marché obligataire fait environ 4 fois le marché actions.

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- Possible rebond au moins intraday à partir du niveau actuel.

- Si toutefois on descend à +/-3700 il y aura saturation en journalier et surtout en horaire et un rebond est quasi acquis.

Je n'ai aucune idée de l'objectif exacte mais 3820 est possible.

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Chute continue cette nuit pour beaucoup de valeur:
indices (ES,...), euro/usd, metals (gold, silver, hg), energy (crude oil), bonds (10, 30)

- gold atteint 1300
- us bond 10 ans casse support important.... us bond 30 ans proche support important
- ES va ouvrir avec gap ~ -10/12 pts. Tendance baissiere pour l'instant. Niveaux important 1600 & 1590 vers le bas, 1622 vers le haut. (rajouter ~ 6 pts pour ES juin).


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En attendant la prochaine mise à jour que j'espère faire ce soir:

1/ C'est mort pour 3900/50.

2/ C'est presque mort pour 3850 (confirmation demain en clôture). J'espère seulement un rebond à 3800/20.

3/ Le CAC descendrait à 3550/70 environ courant juillet (vague (c)) avant nouveaux plus hauts sur les indices.

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