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Analyse CAC40 par Anas
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Analyse CAC40 par Anas

  #1531 (permalink)
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marcopolo1 View Post
Monte jusqu'a 2.5???

Finis pour la journee... Je vais me detendre un peu parce que ces mouvements rapides ca tue nerveneusement...puis il faut analyser tout ca...



Si ça monte à 2.5 les actions baisseraient fortement.


C'était violent en effet. Repose-toi !

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  #1532 (permalink)
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2 éléments contradictoires.

1/ Le VIX en baisse = les opérateurs soulagés.

2/ Forte hausse des taux US = vente


Mais la réaction du premier jour n'est jamais la bonne.

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Le 10 ans US vient de faire 2.36 un plus haut depuis 16 mois.

Si la tendance ne s'inverse pas dès cette nuit, il y a un risque de sell-off demain sur les actions.

On va voir comment l'Asie va réagir cette nuit.

Parmi toutes les déclarations que Bernanke a faite, une ressemblait à un aveu d'échec de sa politique. C'était quand il a parlé de l'inflation basse.

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  #1534 (permalink)
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Un petit résumé de la situation.


1/ S&P cash:

Il a clôturé à 1628. Vague (b) toujours en cours car le MACD jour et horaire est au dessus de 0.
Support à ne pas casser en clôture jour = 1616. Au dessus de ce niveau, on peut toujours remonter à 1670/75 avant de baisser à 1540. Si 1616 casse en clôture, la vague (b) prend fin et la suite c'est une baisse à 1540.

2/ CAC:

Le support à ne pas casser demain en clôture est 3795. Si jamais on y descend, il vaut mieux rebondir rapidement pour qu'une hausse à 3920/50 reste possible dans les jours qui viennent. En dessous en clôture, la (b) serait terminée à 3882 lundi et l'objectif serait vers 3550/3600.


3/ 10 ans US:

En très forte hausse ce soir. Il a fait un plus haut à 2.36 mais commence à baisser un peu. Actuellement à 2.33 et il faudrait vérifier demain à combien il est avant toute initiative. C'est une situation que j'attendais dans une semaine mais elle est intervenue dès ce soir.


Je ferai à nouveau le point d'ici demain matin.

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  #1535 (permalink)
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Pour moi on termine la baisse ce matin ou début de l'ouverture US , puis hausse vers les 3920 probablement le 26/6.

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  #1536 (permalink)
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Bonjour,


Gros problème avec broker. Pas disponible tant que ce n'est pas réglé.

Je déconseille l'achat dans les conditions actuelles. 10 ans US a atteint un niveau critique qui peut provoquer un sell-off. Je vous en parle depuis plus d'un mois de ce niveau de 2.40/50...

En plus le FCE ouvre sous 3790/95.

Je pense tout au plus à un rebond intra vers 3810/20

Je n'ai pas tous mes moyens là.

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3745 est le dernier support ce jour. S'il ne provoque pas de rebond, c'est mort.

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ngu yen View Post
Pour moi on termine la baisse ce matin ou début de l'ouverture US , puis hausse vers les 3920 probablement le 26/6.

Je vise entre 3690 et 3730

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3745 est le dernier support ce jour. S'il ne provoque pas de rebond, c'est mort.

Ah ! en cloture de quelle unité ?Merci Anas.

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@ Ngu Yen,

Je ne sais pas si tu as déjà vécu un crash obligataire et ses répercussions sur les actions, mais quand ça arrive l'analyse graphique ou toutes atres considérations n'ont aucune importance.

Depuis hier, 20h, il y a une situation exceptionnelle, c'est la forte hausse des taux US. Depuis longtemps je vous ai parlé de la zone critique 2.40/2.50 sur le 10 ans qui provoquerait des ventes mécaniques sur les actions. Actuellement on est à 2.37 et les opérateurs peuvent appuyer sur le bouton vendre au même temps sans qu'il y ait d'acheteurs en face contrairement aux autres fois vu que le marché est robotisé maintenant.

Alors, on peut tout à fait rebondir et monter au niveau que tu mentionnes mais le danger est celui là.

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