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Analyse CAC40 par Anas
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Analyse CAC40 par Anas

  #1441 (permalink)
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Une image de la situation.

FCE journalier:

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La MM10 n'a pas encore croisé la MM50. Mais c'est un noeud de résistances entre 3830/40.

Ca peut être une ligne de cou pour deux figures chartistes haussières, une Adam et Eve et une ETEI, dont le potentiel est d'environ 100 points toutes les deux.


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ETEI:

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Dans les deux cas l'objectif est le report des 100 points depuis 3730 au dessus de la ligne de cou.

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Quelques éléments:

- Si les opérateurs décident de spéculer positivement sur la réunion de la FED, et je pense que les banques américaines sont déjà au parfum, que les indices atteignent les objectifs du rebond avant mercredi 20h, le mieux est de tout solder car la FED ne remettra pas de l'argent et les indices ne flamberont pas.

- La figure en Adam et Eve supporterait une baisse jusqu'à 3760.

- L'ETEI supporterait une baisse jusqu'à 3775/80.

En dessous de ces deux niveaux, elles sont invalidées.

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L'effet MACD au dessus de 0 en horaire.

Mais pourquoi ils ont décidé de baisser vendredi soir? quelle énigme!

Maintenant il n y a rien avant 3860/65

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En 30, mn nous sommes un peu en excès mais ça reste haussier.

En horaire, c'est la même chose qu'en 30 mn.

Dans les deux cas, 3820 devient support à CT.

Journalier: 3860/65 est une résistance intérmediaire.

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Alors!

Vous vous souvenez de 3885?

C'est le niveau qui nous a bloqué 2 fois le 7 et le 10 juin. Le marché va s'en souvenir. Des gens commencent à sortir à son approche car une divergence baissière cachée commence déjà à apparaître à 3865/70.

Il est donc possible qu'on consolide à partir de maintenant ou à partir de 3880/85. Ce n'est pas méchant mais un retour sur le support 30 mn et horaire n'est pas exclu. Ce support se trouve actuellement à 3820 mais d'ici qu'on y descende, il va remonter vers 3830/35.

Donc 3870 ou 3880/85 suivi de conso à 3830/35 puis hausse pour faire l'objectif à 3934.

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Jeudi et Vendredi quand l'ES était à 1640, le CAC est resté à 3830. Maintenant l'ES est à 1640 et le CAC a 3875.

Si l'ES clôture ce soir (minuit) ou les jours suivant au dessus de 1640, l'objectif est à 1670/75. Soit 2%.

2% sur le CAC à partir de 3875 = 3950/55.

Hier, je vous ai dit que l'objectif était entre 3900 et 3950 puis affiné à 3934.

On va dire maintenant que l'objectif est entre 3920 et 3955.

Conso possible à 3830/35 immédiatement avant relance haussière.

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Les cycliques (Lafarge, RNO, Schneider, SGO...etc) n'ont pas du tout rebondit. La hausse s'est faite grâce aux poids lourds de la côte: SAN, FP, GSZ, FTE, OR.

Il est donc possible que, pour faire l'objectif du rebond, les cycliques motent un peu (rotations sectorielles)

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ESU3 (Sept 2013) - 06/17 PRE-MARKET

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Je pense qu'on a atteint les hauts du jours à 3883, 1644.5 et 15245.

Un retour au moins à 3840, 1635 et 15150 est possible.

Depuis ce midi, je suis surpris que tous les gérants expliquent la hausse du jour par le même discours:

"Bernanke a voulu tester le marché, mais voyant qu'il y a eu beaucoup trop de volatilité il ne va peut-être rien changer"

Je ne comprends pas. Ils ont tous reçu un mail de la FED ce week-end?

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