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Analyse CAC40 par Anas
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Analyse CAC40 par Anas

  #1351 (permalink)
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Quelques infos.

- Turkey Q1 GDP at +3% +2.3% expected (impressionnant!)

- Bank of Finland report :cuts 2013 growth forcast to -0.8% from +0.4% cuts 2014 to +0.7% from 1.4%

- Germany's Schaeuble: No Doubt ECB Acting Within Mandate.

- Les taux de tous les pays continuent de monter. 10 ans US à 2.26 maintenant. J'ai dit ce matin qu'à proximité de 2.5 il y aurait des ventes forcées sur actions. Le CAC pourrait par exemple perdre 100 pts en inraday comme le 4 février.

- Production industrielle britanique inchangée.

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  #1352 (permalink)
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FCE 30 mn.

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Ca va être dur de rebondir: oblique + MM noires et rouges + MACD sous 0 + S&P baissier en horaire et il vient de casser 1635.

Celà dit on doit pas faire des folies à la baisse car support horaire à 3810

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Pullback 3845/50 puis 3810


L'était bon celui là mais je n'ai pas shorté

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  #1354 (permalink)
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Rappel.

Quand je parle d'un niveau de prix, sauf indication contraire, c'est en clôture dans l'unité de temps évoquée.


Je crois que c'est clair.


La je viens de passer long mais pas rassuré à cause de la volatilité sur les taux qui s'accentue.

Je me contenterais d'un 3825/30 cet aprèm car nous sommes en excès horaire.

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Vous voyez,

c'est toute la difficulté du trading en ce moment. Ce n'est pas que graphique comme au bon vieux temps. Ca dépend des taux, des annonces politiques et de plein de choses...etc.

Pour peu que cet après-midi quelqu'un fasse une promesse "pavlovienne" et le marché remonte. Si le 10 ans US fait +2% et ça risque de s'effondrer.

Rien n'est à son prix, par la volonté des banques centrales, jusqu'au jour où ça leur échappera.

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P'tit update DAX

Pour montrer la situation Ichimoku dans le Dax 30 minutes:

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On voit que le prix est maintenant en dessous du Kumo et - normalement -
sort de l'autre côté avec au moins la même distance qui a été fait en descente.
Ca veut dire qu'on est toujours à la baisse.
La flèche jaune montre vers une base... mais les prix peuvent tomber toujours
beaucoup plus bas.
Il faut être très attentionné pour eviter les résultats négatifs - au moin jusqu'au
triple witch vendredi dans une semaine (21 juin).

GFIs1

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  #1357 (permalink)
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ES journalier.

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Je vous parle souvent du MACD car selon moi c'est le meilleur indicateur de tendance. Du fait qu'il soit loin de sa ligne de signal m'a fait penser que le rebond n'était qu'un retracement. Il y a évidemment plusieurs autres arguments.

En journalier, retour probable à 1605/10 et la cassure de ce niveau envoie à 1570/80.


Au regard de la faiblesse persistante du CAC, je serai obligé de revoir l'objectif à la baisse encore plus bas. Genre entre 3600 et 3650. C'est un objectif hebdo conforme aux objectifs de tous les indices qui étaient déjà passé baissiers sur cette UT la semaine dernière.

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Je remercie GFIs1

pour ses graph pértinents, notamment ceux de la semaine dernière.

D'après mes obsrvations, le DAX fait souvent ses target à la fin des impulsions, à la hausse comme à la baisse.

A cet instant, avec les indices US, il est le seul encore au dessus de sa MM10 hebdo.

Si ça tourne mal, il a un objectif entre 7550/600.

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CAC

Le niveau des 3780 est un support intermédiaire. Je vous avais dit dimanche qu'on y irait car le FCE l'a fait mais pas le cash.

Ce niveau est relativement important et il devrait provoquer un rebond technique d'ici demain, objectif 3840/50.

Une clôture en dessous serait catastrophique car il n y a aucun support identifiable jusqu'à...3650 !!

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CAC 15 mn.


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J'espère que 3780 vont tenir. Si c'est le cas, je vois les choses comme ça: résistance à 3800 pour 3840/50 d'ici demain.

Sous 3780 en clôture jour ce n'est pas bon.

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