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Analyse CAC40 par Anas
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Analyse CAC40 par Anas

  #1341 (permalink)
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Analyse SP daily.

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  #1342 (permalink)
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Bonjour,

CAC journalier:

Le MACD est passé sous sa ligne 0 en clôture. Cela va provoquer une faiblesse dans les jours à venir d'autant plus qu'il s'est déjà montré faible ces dernières séances.

Les prix sont toujours sous l'oblique baissière. Elle va passer à 3865 environ aujourd'hui. Au dessus, une autre résistance à 3900/20.

Hier soir le 10 ans américain est monté de près de 2% et a atteint un plus haut annuel à 2.21. Je pense qu'à 2.40/50 il y aurait des ventes forcées sur les actions. A surveiller.

Au regard de ces éléments, et tant qu'un niveau d'achat satisfaisant ne sera pas atteint, je ne jouerai pas la hausse sur le CAC, contrairement à ce que j'ai proposé hier, car ça sera frustrant et risqué. Je préfère chercher un point d'entrée short.


Graph FCE jour:

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En attente d'un point d'entrée short.

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ES journalier.


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Malgré le rebond, le MACD reste sous sa ligne de signal. MM10 reste baissière et ne soutient pas les prix. Le plus probable est une rechute au moins à 1605/10

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CAC

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On a gapé la MM50 (rose) à l'ouverture. Une hausse à 3900 reste techniquement possible mais improbable. On se dirige vers un croisement baissier de la MM10 et 50 d'ici 2 jours. Objectif 3780 puis 3700 à terme.

Pas achetable pour moi.

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  #1345 (permalink)
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Petit long à 3825 car nous sommes en

excès en 30mn. Pas trop risqué car support horaire à 3810/15


PS: je parle du FCE

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Les 3830 sont touchés (bravo Anas), je sors partiellement les shorts, 3800 pour le reste .Petit long quand meme pour prendre pied à 3800 (pour le mt).

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  #1347 (permalink)
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ngu yen View Post
Les 3830 sont touchés (bravo Anas), je sors partiellement les shorts, 3800 pour le reste .Petit long quand meme pour prendre pied à 3800.

Bonjour Ngu Yen,

Bah les 30 points de la sortie du squeez d'hier.

Journalier: vaut mieux shorter les rebonds pour le moment.

Horaire: baissier jusqu'à 3810

30 mn: excès. Pullback possible de 3845/50 CAC cash.

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Scénario 30 mn.

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Pullback 3845/50 puis 3810

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  #1349 (permalink)
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A propos de Quantitative Easing.

Vulgairement: la FED crée de la monnaie et s'en sert pour acheter des bons du trésor et des créances subprimes (MBS).

Elle le fait depuis 2009.

Dans la version 3 en cours, elle depense 85 milliards $ par mois.


La FED a commencé dès le mois d'avril à réfléchir au moins à une diminution de ce montant. Elle se réunit le 19 juin prochain.

Il se trouve que le 10 ans américain monte fortement depuis le 5 mai.

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Au regard de cette hausse et celle de tous les taux dans le monde depuis 2 mois, je pense que la FED a déjà commencé à dimunuer ses achats. Mais elle ne le dit pas car elle ne veut pas affoler les marchés et ainsi éviter un crash obligataire qui contaminerait l'ensemble des actifs.


Pour info, je suis sorti de mon long à 3845 CAC. Je suis flat.

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En attente d'un point short car


je pense qu'on peut remonter jusqu'à entre 3850 et 3860. Pour viser 3810/15.

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L'ES est passé baissier en horaire. Support jour à 1635, sa cassure donne 1620 puis 1605/10.

Tout retour à 1640 est shortable.

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