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Analyse CAC40 par Anas
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Analyse CAC40 par Anas

  #1191 (permalink)
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Résistance à 3962.

On peut y rester une heure. Prendre de l'élan à 3946 et la casser pour remonter finalement vers 3975/80.

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  #1192 (permalink)
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SP 2013/05/31 pre-market

Chute Europe amene SP: 1655 -> 1645 avec low 1641
Series de hauts (1,2,3) de + faible valeur
Test des 1631 aujourd'hui?

Niveaux hausse:
1660
1656
1652.75

Niveaux baisse:
1641
1635
1631

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  #1193 (permalink)
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Analyse de ce matin


Réplique baissière possible sur 3891 !

Ces derniers jours et en cette fin de mois de mai des tensions sont perceptibles sur les rendements obligataires qui poussent probablement certains investisseurs stressés à effectuer des ventes de précaution !
Le retour de la volatilité et la configuration qui prend un biais négatif en intraday sont les signes avant coureurs d'une tendance plus alternée dans le meilleur des cas ou de fortes perturbations à venir.

En intraday, la tendance restera Négative entre 3951 sur le contrat future juin !

Le CAC40 alterne le bon et le moins bon depuis le 23 mai et, au gré des situations de surachat et de survente en intraday, est entré dans une phase d'indécision qui pour l'instant n'est pas dramatique !
Pour conserver une tendance haussière à court terme, il faut déjà préserver 3920 en base clôture mais surtout ne pas enfoncer la zone 3891/3863. Comme précisé dans notre note d'hier,
l'Indice parisien a enfoncé facilement ce matin la borne basse d'une figure en V bottom (4010.5-3951-4010) et le risque d'une réplique de 60 points à la baisse sur 3891 ne peut être écarté .
Néanmoins, la réalisation de ce mouvement dépendra de la vitesse à laquelle il pourrait s'effectuer. En revanche, le maintien au-dessus de 3920 et le retour au-dessus de 3951 détendraient l'atmosphère.
Ensuite, pour écarter la pression vendeuse, il faudra au minimum franchir 3981 (pivot de la figure) en clôture. Au-delà, 4011 (borne haute) reste la résistance à dépasser pour réactiver le biais acheteur.

A contrario, la pression devrait rester présente en intraday sous 3951. Pour espérer atteindre 3891 d'ici la clôture (niveau de rachat idéal en base 1 heure), 3920 doit être cassé en séance ou en clôture.
Sous 3920 en clôture, la tendance haussière à moyen terme prendrait un bais négatif même si celle-ci restera positive au-dessus de la zone 3810/3785. Néanmoins, pour commencer à envisager
cette perspective, il faudra enfoncer 3891 et surtout 3863 (niveau de retracement en base Daily). La perte de cette zone déboucherait sur une réplique baissière dont 3720 serait le scénario du pire !

En conclusion, du tangage en vue !

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  #1194 (permalink)
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On a pas encore fait le plus haut. Encore quelques points.

3960 devient support intraday pour...3985/88 !!

Et free lunch pour 3880 mais d'ici mardi je pense.

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  #1195 (permalink)
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CAC 30 mn.

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  #1196 (permalink)
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DATA US

US Personal Income 0.0% exp 0.1%, Pers Spend -0.2% exp 0.0%, PCE deflator (MoM) -0.3% exp -0.2%

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  #1197 (permalink)
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Idée...

ES: objectif intraday 1650/52 . J'imagine qu'ils vont les faire pendant le POMO de 5 milliards entre 16h15 et 17h20.

Ils vont probablement commencer par descendre à 1640 (38) à l'open.

Ca donnerait un CAC à 3955 puis rebond pour faire 3985/88 puis....

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  #1198 (permalink)
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Goldman Sachs lowers Q2 GDP estimate to 1.8% from 2.0%


Ils sont short

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  #1199 (permalink)
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DAX

Objectif à la baisse vers 8080 mais il peut faire 8020.

Vers le 12/14 juin :-)

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Chicago PMI 58.7, Exp. 50.0


C'est une blague?!

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