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Analyse CAC40 par Anas
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Analyse CAC40 par Anas

  #1021 (permalink)
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ES - 20130520

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  #1022 (permalink)
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Bonjour,

Mes décomptes Elliott ne sont pas encore terminés, bien que je sois dessus depuis plusieurs jours. Je pense le faire la nuit prochaine et les poster demain matin.

Je tente de faire des mises à jour en Chandeliers à CT. Je les posterai vers 10h.

Je m'attends à une conso pendant 5 à 6 séances. Volatilité faible.

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  #1023 (permalink)
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Ok!


DJIA en journalier:

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La résistance oblique haussière est propre. Il y a un support que je vais faire figurer sur le graph du S&P mais qui est le même sur le DJIA. Il passe actuellement à 14750 mais le temps que la conso se fasse il va remonter à 14800 (trait vert.

Donc le plus probable c'est une conso à 14800 d'ici quelques séances (5 à 6).

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  #1024 (permalink)
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Ok!

S&P journalier:

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- Il n'est pas possible de tracer une résistance oblique haussière comme sur le DJIA. Le S&P (et le Nasdaq) a sousperformé, et puis il s'est rattrapé.

- Il y a ce support oblique haussier depuis novembre 2012. Il va passer dans quelques jours à 1595. Le plus haut de mars est à 1597. Cette zone de 1595/97 est probablement l'objectif de la conso immédiate.

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  #1025 (permalink)
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OK!

CAC journalier:


Ce graph pour voir la confluence des deux obliques à 4026 en zoomant.

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A CT:

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Le plus probable c'est une baisse à seulement 3820. Ca fait -5% par-rapport au top d'hier. C'est conforme à une baisse de 4.5% sur le S&P et 4% sur le DJIA.



Que va t-il se passer après cette éventuelle conso à CT?

Je pense que les indices US feront une autre hausse vers 1700/20 pour le S&P et 15800/900 pour le DJIA. Ca correspond à un CAC entre 4100 et 4150. C'est un niveau que je refuse de préciser tellement il est hallucinant.

N'empêche qu'il ne faut pas rater le short à ce moment là. Une baisse d'environ 15% interviendrait dans la foulée de ces plus hauts.

Le CAC baisserait vers 3400/500.

Je m'y suis pris un peu en Chandeliers un peu en Elliott. Les niveaux collent. Par contre je dois vous préciser le timing d'ici demain.

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Quelques articles + déclarations la nuit dérnières (les plus importants)

Source Reuters + Bloomberg.


- Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said QE Halt Would Be 'Too Violent' for Market.

- U.S. Faces Downgrade in 2013 Without Budget Deal, Moody?s Warns - Bloomberg

- S.Korea Fin Min - Rapid Yen depreciation is a concern for S.Korea.; KRW currency volatility can trigger smoothing operations

- Presidents of Portugal banks BCP and Banco Espírito Santo - 'stop playing with fire' and warns that the 'virus of Cyprus' could spread

- Goldman’s S&P 500 call 3m 1700 6m 1750 12m 1825 (numbers from there Asset Alloc piece released today)

- Fed's balance sheet will be $5 trillion by the time Goldman sees QEternity ending in late 2014. Fed will own 70% of all 5 year+ TSYs

- What to expect from Bernanke testimony and Fed minutes this week | MacroScope

- Caterpillar North America Sales Collapse Suggests US Economy Back To 2010 Levels | Zero Hedge

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  #1027 (permalink)
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Les supports à casser.

30 mn faut clôturer sous 3997 pour aller à 3980
60 mn faut clôturer sous 3980 pour aller à 3960
Journalier faut clôturer sous 3960 pour aller à 3820

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  #1028 (permalink)
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Le CAC journalier se présente comme ça.

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La boll sup a perdu 25 points ce matin.
Le DMI est en divergence baissière.

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  #1029 (permalink)
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bonjour analyse de ce matin

Indice CAC40

Triple top en base daily !

Même si le CAC40 a réalisé 9 nouveaux plus hauts annuels en 13 séances, on sent bien que les relais commencent à devenir difficiles en amont du discours de B Bernanke devant le Congrès ce mercredi !
La formation d'un triple top visible en base daily et notamment sur le contrat future juin (4004.50-4003.50-4004) atteste d'une possible fin à court terme du cycle haussier.

En intraday, la tendance restera Très Positive au-dessus de 3985 sur le cash et au-dessus de 3960 (contrat future juin).

Même si aucune alerte d'un point de vue technique ne s'est encore activée, depuis le débordement ponctuel des 3985 et surtout du seuil psychologique des 4000, le CAC40 manque de relais.
Néanmoins, tant que 3985 sur le cash (3960 sur le future) reste support en clôture, les considérations techniques resteront positives le temps de trouver de nouveaux catalyseurs afin de poursuivre.
On peut donc conserver au-dessus de 3960 (à très court terme) et au-dessus de 3920-3930 (à court terme) pour viser, 4092-4112 (déduction faite des 25 points de dividendes sur juin) soit 4117-4137.

A contrario, difficile de dire encore s'il s'agit d'une fin de cycle à court terme ou d'une énième phase d'accumulation, le temps de trouver du carburant pour poursuivre sur l'été le rallye de ce printemps.
Dans un premier temps, on surveillera 3985 , qui doit être enfoncé pour permettre un retracement plus marqué dont 3960, en cas de rupture, sera un accélérateur supplémentaire à la baisse pour viser 3920.
En-deçà de 3920, la situation devrait se dégrader plus nettement avec 3880/3870 (3850 sur le future) comme cible principale et niveau d'inflexion du cycle haussier à court terme.

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  #1030 (permalink)
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la volatilite


Hello Anas,

lorsque tu dis que la volatilite est faible et que la correction que nous attendons sera moins importante ... peut-on imaginer que la volatilite augmente dans les prochains jours ?

J'imagine que plus le temps passe, plus il sera difficile de descendre bas. La Bollinger daily remonte bien...

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