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Analyse CAC40 par Anas
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Analyse CAC40 par Anas

  #991 (permalink)
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  #992 (permalink)
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Comme toutes les séances de passation de contrat FCE

il y a une poussée haussière vers 11h30 ou 11h45. Il se peut que le CAC soit vers 3985 à ce moment là.

C'est simplement une constatation historique.

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Message pédagogique.


La figure dite "Dead cat bounce"


Illustration par le graph de Alstom:


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C'est arrivé récemment sur le Gold. D'où l'objectif baissier vers 1100$.


Définition par Wiki:

Dead cat bounce - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



500 à 600 figures chartistes ici:

http://thepatternsite.com/

Comptez environ 5 ans pour les assimiler.

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AnasParis View Post
La figure dite "Dead cat bounce"

héhé @AnasParis

Même chôse ici sur le Dax - 2ème haut - s'il résiste:

C'est un double TOP...

même si le trade intraday d'aujourd'hui est tombé dans la merde... la direction a été
conformée.

Bonne journée
GFIs1

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Mise à jour sur S&P, DAX, DJIA et CAC.

Après vérification de plein de choses. Si j'en parle ça prendrait 2 heures.


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Les derniers excès sont pour aujourd'hui. Il y a un POMO de 5 milliards vers 16h30 aux US.

Il faut tenir psychologiquement. Ca ressemble au printemps/été 2007. A l'époque, je me suis fait rincé et mon portefeuille accusait -40% de moins-values latentes car j'avais shorté à partir de 5800 et on s'est trouvé à 6150. Mais je visais le "short du siècle" et il fallait souffrir sur ce coup là. J'avais moyenné jusqu'à 80% de mon porteuille et passé sur des produits valables 1 à 2 ans. Début janvier 2008 ( affaire Kerviel) j'ai tout soldé et mon portefeuille multiplié par 3. Si j'avais gardé jusqu'à octobre, j'aurais fait x 10 peut-être mais il y avais la valeur temps qui courrait et je ne sais pas que Lehman allait faire faillite.

Tout ça pour dire que le trading peut nous faire vivre des moments difficiles mais au bout il peut y avoir des choses positives que ce soit financièrement mais aussi au niveau expérience.

Il y a quelques temps, je prévcoyais que le plus haut annuel se ferait à 3970 max. Je précisais que c'était 4080 moins 110 pts de dividendes. Je constate que les dividendes sont rattrappés dans la journée. Donc le plus haut annuel n'est pas encore fait car en terme de timing, il se ferait lors des élections allemandes.


On va donc jouer cette conso et en suite on va tenter des longs pour viser 4100 environ. Et en temps voulu, on jouera le "short du siècle" à nouveau sur des produits long terme.

Bon courage!

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Indice de confiance de l'université du Michigan.

83.7 contre 78.

Excellent!


De quoi s'agit-il au fait?


Un sondage auprès de 500 étudiants dans la ville de Ann Arbor. Le questionnaire porte sur leurs finances et leur vision de l'avenir de l'économie.

J'imagine que sur les 500 étudiants, la majorité a son argent de poche, possède un I-Phone, n'a jamais payé d'impôts, n'a pas d'enfants pour s'en inquiéter, boit bcp d'alccol, peut-être se drogue...etc.

Ils ne représentent pas l'économie.


C'est quand-même incroyable qu'un tel truc fasse la pluie et le beau temps sur les marchés mondiaux!

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ETE sur l'Euro - dollar

Avec une premiere epaule a 1.317 en septembre 2012, la ete a 1.3711 en fevrier, et recemment la deuxieme epaule a 1.324.

Elle est un peu bancale, mais si realisee (rupture de la ligne de cou vers 1.28, donc c'est peut-etre l'enjeu du moment), elle indiquerait un objectif aux alentours de 1.20. Soit les plus bas de 2012.

Anas, tu en penses quoi ? Elle est valable comme figure?

Bon week-end a tous!

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Emmanuel View Post
Avec une premiere epaule a 1.317 en septembre 2012, la ete a 1.3711 en fevrier, et recemment la deuxieme epaule a 1.324.

Elle est un peu bancale, mais si realisee (rupture de la ligne de cou vers 1.28, donc c'est peut-etre l'enjeu du moment), elle indiquerait un objectif aux alentours de 1.20. Soit les plus bas de 2012.

Anas, tu en penses quoi ? Elle est valable comme figure?

Bon week-end a tous!



Ton ETE:

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Ca se défend. Perso, j'y m'étais pris autrement pour les 1.23

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Les US viennent de faire leurs top je pense.

Conso d'environ 6% maintenant. En 2 à 3 semaines.

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Analyse SP 05/18. J'ai ete surpris par le force a la hausse ce vendredi...
Techniquement le SP est tres 'etendu' et devrait corriger, mais les 1700 sont tres proche -)

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