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Where is the ES heading to ?
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Where is the ES heading to ?

  #1 (permalink)
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Where is the ES heading to ?

I have drawn this channel manually and i think we are near the edge of something. Of course, we may break the top line but i would be very surprised if it happens tomorrow. Each bar on this chart represents a session (night & day) i like to analyse what has occured during the night VS the day over a certain interval. Anyway, judging price action alone on this chart it looks like we'll break that line or at least test it. What do you think ? Many have this magic number in their mind 1250 before Christmas.

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  #2 (permalink)
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It seems the fed is determined to make corporations as profitable as possible, so I think 1250 by end of year is very easy, and if we get a QE3 and QE4 then we'll likely see 1300 and 1400 sometime next two years.

But what is sad is while corporate america is doing gangbusters, the average american is in poverty with record foreclosures and record unemployment... So, I keep thinking someone is going to wake up and the ES is going to take a nose dive to reflect the true state of our economy. But, the ES is focused on corporations and their profits, which of course are doing well, so my symbology doesn't work.

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  #3 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
It seems the fed is determined to make corporations as profitable as possible, so I think 1250 by end of year is very easy, and if we get a QE3 and QE4 then we'll likely see 1300 and 1400 sometime next two years.

But what is sad is while corporate america is doing gangbusters, the average american is in poverty with record foreclosures and record unemployment... So, I keep thinking someone is going to wake up and the ES is going to take a nose dive to reflect the true state of our economy. But, the ES is focused on corporations and their profits, which of course are doing well, so my symbology doesn't work.

Mike

Think you hit the nail on its head with a few words.

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  #4 (permalink)
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From a TA view point, dare I say this is a pump and dump? I don't take entries from daily charts but this is looking interesting. Meanwhile, equities have been about exciting as a chess match.

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  #5 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
Think you hit the nail on its head with a few words.

don't think we reached record unemployment yet. believe in the 80's we had around 11%. so we still have a little room to "improve".

another problem is liquidity. there could be a massive liquidity coming in the markets. even if it's only a fraction from that available liquidity, s & p could reach 1500 very easily.

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  #6 (permalink)
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I will keep SELLING into new ES highs from here to year end.......that is my play (was a seller of 1237.00 in Dec contract yesterday and made a decent hit). For the Mar contract I will be looking for sell response/signals into any move north of 1235.00's.



Euro NOT in rally mode is holding Equities buying back so far........I will keep watching the Euro (inverse of US dollar) into year end for "the tell" going forward.

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FulcrumTrader View Post
I will keep SELLING into new ES highs from here to year end.......that is my play (was a seller of 1227.00 in Dec contract yesterday and made a decent hit). New contract I will be looking for sell response/signals into any move north of 1235.00's.

good luck with that strategy.

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Silvester17 View Post
good luck with that strategy.

No.......made targets at 1232.00 and 1227.00 down from positions sold at 1237.00 yesterday (SHORT entry was at 1237.00 yesterday....not 1227.00). Decent hits but nothing real big, and I do not expect Equities to just start dumping into last trade days of month unless there is a strong US Dollar rally.

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FulcrumTrader View Post
No.......made targets at 1232.00 and 1227.00 down from positions sold at 1237.00 yesterday (SHORT entry was at 1237.00 yesterday....not 1227.00). Decent hits but nothing real big, and I do not expect Equities to just start dumping into last trade days of month unless there is a strong US Dollar rally.

BTW, all my ES/DAX/6E/CL trades have been posted live in futures.io (formerly BMT).com general text chat box. Big Mike asked me to do a journal here at the site so I am going to try and start that up on Monday if I am not too busy....probably start that Sunday night going into Monday EU session.

I'm not questioning your trades. what I can see, you're pretty successful with what you do.

I'm just saying we could (I repeat could) see a burst in liquidity.

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  #10 (permalink)
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Silvester17 View Post
I'm not questioning your trades. what I can see, you're pretty successful with what you do.

I'm just saying we could (I repeat could) see a burst in liquidity.

With all the cash sitting around that is very possible. One good way to see if all that cash will come off the sidelines is real positive economic numbers (perception game) or a mean Euro rally (US dollar sell off)......so I am always watching for that.

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