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These were my targets, prior to the currency intervention, I got stopped out of another 1/3 of my postion @1254.00 overnight, while I was sleeping - I just couldn't pull an all-nighter. I still have the other 1/3, despite Japan's actions, because I'm long from essentially the bottom. I have a stop below on the remaining 1/3 of my position, that if elected is still a decent profit. If the market is good, it will rally despite Japan's actions, but the intervention definitely threw a wrench in the works. I really have no idea what's going to happen next , until how I see how the market trades this morning, but I still believe I am right the market. Hopefully, this will have served to trap more shorts, and add more fuel to the fire. Either way, it should make for some more volatility, which is always welcome.
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
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Here's a few things I've been watching from a big picture perspective. The shorts should be well short since the 1300 levels with the break of the wedge pattern and should've been adding to their position as all those levels of support have been taken out. It seems that yesterday's RTH session stopped right at the 2011 opening price area, drifted higher overnight and has since reversed. It seemed to me like yesterday was some profit taking and we could see more selling once we run into an area of resistance. I was thinking we would test the bottom of the previous supporting trend line but it looks like we're having a tough time getting up there. It would make sense that we make a run for 1171 area as it has been a key level in the past. Who knows though, I'm just loving the volatility.
Can't really disagree with what you posit, except for the fact that "dumb" money has the largest short position, albeit, not that large on a relative basis. In fact open interest, hence liquidity, is extremely low. So the market is not "too" short, which supports your case. The longs however, are commercial longs who are hedged and don't have to get out, so any further sell-off would have to be fueled by new shorts.A continued strong dollar as a result of the Japanese devaluation is certainly bearish.. I have obviously been stopped out of the last 1/3 of my longs, but I can't get short in front of the FOMC meeting, so its a trading affair for now. But like you stated, the volatility make that alot of fun.
Here's a bit of big picture analysis. I think my chart is self-explanatory. The basic idea is a question of whether we're seeing the first signs of a reversal in the "flight to safety" - indicating the beginnings of a turn towards more risky investments - back into the dollar, stocks, and commodities.
I'm curious to hear what you guys think - you've been doing this way longer than me and I'm still learning about these "macro" concepts.
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
Agree that we are not moving to risk now but my thought is whether this is an early sign of a change - maybe over the coming 2-3 weeks. Thanks for your comment TT.
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
