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Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
Yes, I agree. It's been amazing! These markets are really coming alive. Nice trade on the 1250 puts! Once we broke below the 200 day moving average, I knew we would test the 1252 area. Surprisingly, we blew through it like it wasn't even there. Price stopped at the year's open for a little bit and then dropped below that as well. Pretty amazing markets.
Yes, as I think I wrote earlier in this thread, I assumed we would retest the 1250's. But I wasn't expecting it to blow through all those levels like that. Incredible!
The only problem I have, is that this has been the worst summer in Norway for years. And the few days we have temperatures in the high 70s, volatility picks up. I was planning on taking a few days off, but no such luck...
Been scalping CL for the most part, and haven't taken any ES positions in a while, but I am seriously considering getting long. Just too much bearishness out there, and I think max pain would caused by a rally right now. Today was the 7th day in a row that the ES has traded below the prior days low, and this occurance has bee a pretty reliable indicatior of a short term bottom in the past. Long term trend is still intact as the ES is holding the 50MA on the weekly and is trading within it's bull regression channel. Of course that could all change tonight or tomorrow. Congrats to all who caught this downdraft, but caveat vendor, at these levels.
Vix is disturbingly not afraid of this last month. We are not at max pain at all, not even close. My friends that don't care about the markets at all have not even mentioned this last month as far as causing the herd to stampede for the exit.
The only thing I can see to account for that is that it is really not that surprising if we double dip recession wise here.
Faster than previous expected regime change, is also not that unexpected IMO.
Anyone who started trading post crisis needs to take risk off the table as this is the point that newbs vanish into thin air.
What is really interesting is the overall mindset is getting back to a bull market...
We are range bound like in the 70s as far as the eye can see..
When the idea of a bull market has died, your friends no longer believe they will ever retire with their 401k, that will be max pain and the time to leverage up/all in long.
Exactly what I have in mind and as a matter of fact right at the level we're at now
Edit: wouldn't be looking for a homerun though...I suspect we might be around here by the time of the fed meeting so as to help Bernanke decide to fire up his helicopter
It is our own fault these people can get away with such non free market nonsense.
Instead of smug one up manship with posting stupid cartoon videos this should be a lesson in Hayekian philosophy.
