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ES and the Great POMO Rally
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ES and the Great POMO Rally

  #841 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
Back on topic, it is !

Sorry for perverting the true essence of the thread - there will not be any more market commentaries from me.

Excellent article on Bernanke's potential next steps.

http://peaktheories.com/docs/TWPSept092011.pdf

Perhaps you would consider starting a new thread to post commentaries. I for one find your thoughts of value.
Kbit

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  #842 (permalink)
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Private Banker View Post
Lol! This thread has become...

I think one of you guys simply needs to start a new thread, it can just be called "ES futures" or "SP500 ES futures" or whatever. Keep the subject simple, then anything inside will be on-topic if it is related to the ES

I'd love to keep seeing the posts from tiger, you, and all you guys. But maybe the general chat about ES should be moved out of this particular thread so this thread doesn't become a catch-all for everything ES related.

Mike

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  #843 (permalink)
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I think tigertrader does a good job in giving perspective of what's going on in the market. I don't know why your changing your mind about the posts you make. I also follow quantifiable edges, i think his stats are insightful, specially in the short term. All this stuff and everything thats going on is the direct result of POMO. So don't stop posting.

In terms of quoting you previously, don't get so upset. Just saying don't try to make predictions, that was the purpose. I know you said its gonna bounce as well, but just saying don't try to get too specific about where its gonna go, just go with it. Have fun with it. And keep posting and do what your doing if you want in a new thread. We can close this and ill continue to post in the new one if you all like. Just let me know or put a link in this one so i know where it is. Have a good weekend all.

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  #844 (permalink)
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kbit View Post
Perhaps you would consider starting a new thread to post commentaries. I for one find your thoughts of value.
Kbit


Per your suggestion, I started a new thread, "Spoonalysis", where we can all feel free to posit our thoughts about the future direction of the S&P 500.

Maybe it's just me, but I do find it ironic that PB had no problem with ES market commentaries being published on this thread, when he was their author and he was disseminating the analysis. Therefore, I can't help but feel, that his last post was completely disingenuous and hypocritical.




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  #845 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
Per your suggestion, I started a new thread, "Spoonalysis", where we can all feel free to posit our thoughts about the future direction of the S&P 500.

Maybe it's just me, but I do find it ironic that PB had no problem with ES market commentaries being published on this thread, when he was their author and he was disseminating the analysis. Therefore, I can't help but feel, that his last post was completely disingenuous and hypocritical.




Well, if it is/was, then it doesn't matter. Not our place to judge others, nor does it provide any value to any of us.

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  #846 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
Per your suggestion, I started a new thread, "Spoonalysis", where we can all feel free to posit our thoughts about the future direction of the S&P 500.

Maybe it's just me, but I do find it ironic that PB had no problem with ES market commentaries being published on this thread, when he was their author and he was disseminating the analysis. Therefore, I can't help but feel, that his last post was completely disingenuous and hypocritical.




Well, from the words of Jeff "The Dude" Lebowski, "that's like your opinion man"... My overall intent here was to keep things a little more on topic. It just seemed the direction of the thread was really morphing into something else. I didn't mind this for a while and I even contributed to some of this but felt this was starting to become pointless.

I'm glad you started a new thread as I think you do a good job with describing the daily events, etc. for those that are in need of assistance in understanding what's going on. I too, plan to start a new thread of a different topic.

Cheers,
PB

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  #847 (permalink)
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I think the extra volatility lately in the markets translates into extra volatility with peoples moods as well.

We are all friends here, trying to help each other. Keep in mind written words via the internet are a lot harder to interpret than seeing someone in person and having the benefit of body language, or even talking over the phone and having the benefit of hearing inflections in their voice.

LOL! OK so just now I was searching for an appropriate image to attach to the post, something fun... and I found this one.... and even though it has a curse word (gasp!!!) I just couldn't resist.... lol!

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Mike

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  #848 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
I think the extra volatility lately in the markets translates into extra volatility with peoples moods as well.

We are all friends here, trying to help each other. Keep in mind written words via the internet are a lot harder to interpret than seeing someone in person and having the benefit of body language, or even talking over the phone and having the benefit of hearing inflections in their voice.

LOL! OK so just now I was searching for an appropriate image to attach to the post, something fun... and I found this one.... and even though it has a curse word (gasp!!!) I just couldn't resist.... lol!

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Mike

I tried to reverse engineer your " message ", obviously with the intent to bring volatility at lower levels and keep the Great Pomo Dudes on board:

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  #849 (permalink)
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redratsal View Post
I tried to reverse engineer...

Oh boy, what have I done?





Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
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  #850 (permalink)
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OK, back on track and on topic:

This link explains the market situation very well, IMO.
Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: A Reprieve from Misguided Recklessness - August 29, 2011

If his analysis proves accurate, we'll see unbelievably lower lows.

Here's an excerpt:

"Historically, the typical bull-bear market cycle has produced a range of 10-year prospective returns in a band between about 7.5% and 13%. That band presently corresponds to a range for the S&P 500 index between 600 and 1000. A 10% prospective return is right in the middle, at about 800 on the S&P. Once you recognize that profit margins are in fact cyclical, that range is about right, as uncomfortable as it may be to contemplate. Jeremy Grantham of GMO estimates that fair value is "no higher than 950." A tighter norm for prospective return between 9-11% maps to an S&P 500 between 750 and 850.
Finally, while I certainly would not expect it in the absence of extreme macroeconomic upheaval, major secular undervaluation as we observed in 1950, 1974 and 1982 would presently map to about 400 on the S&P 500. When you think of "once in a generation" valuations and "secular bear market lows" - that number, not anything near present levels, should be what crosses your mind. I am well aware that even discussing numbers like these, given the present mindset of investors, is likely to be dismissed as utterly ridiculous. Frankly, I would rather risk the ridicule of those who pay lip-service to research, cash flows, fundamentals, and value than to pretend these outcomes are impossible, when the historical record (and even the experience of the past decade) strongly indicates otherwise."

Yikes!

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