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ES and the Great POMO Rally
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ES and the Great POMO Rally

  #821 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Support did not hold - new price target 1154.00.

Short @ ~1198.00 ( breakeven stop)

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  #822 (permalink)
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good job, tiger, I use wolfe wave too, one question,
suppose the dash line is wolfe wave patter, how do you define the dot target line? are you using the same angel of dash line?

thanks

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  #823 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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To be quite honest, I'm still playing around with these formations - the symmetry has me intrigued. My projection is a guesstimate based on the pattern of it's counterpart. Just seemed like a logical place (off the triple top) to draw the projection line, but it may not turn out to be accurate. We shall see! I threw a bull pattern on the chart just for balance. It's amazing how they are all correlated and how the 50EMA plays a role in each one.

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  #824 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
In that sense, it's an art. But hopefully, you can play good music without learning how to read it.

Most systems we see on futures.io (formerly BMT) are in that league. They are systems to scalp a few ticks here and there. They can be used without being too much concerned with the overall market context as exposed in this thread.

However, if you can develop this ability then i suppose it may open the door to a less stressfull way of trading and to more opportunities because you can plan ahead of time different scenarios. I am not there i can't tell for sure but this is how i see it at my stage as a trader.

This post is right on TIYF - one of my (many) faults in trading is getting too locked into this kind of "big picture" reasoning and not just trading the chart and price action of the timeframe I trade (which is strictly intra-day). I do strive to develop the ability to "read the music" as you put it - I think that to break into the big, big money you have to develop this ability and I think it takes years of study. Alas, in the meantime, bills must be paid...

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #825 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
1180 price target by Friday, although they may take it up one more time, to shakeout the weak shorts, trap some more longs, and get shorter. Would still get short against 1231-1233.


Right on target / 1154.00 next.

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  #826 (permalink)
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The Wolfe works on shorter time-frame charts also...

BTW: all lines were drawn before the 5 point was made, so it's very forward looking

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Last edited by tigertrader; September 2nd, 2011 at 03:30 PM.
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  #827 (permalink)
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"Obama Care Explained"



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Let me get this straight . . . ...
We're going to be "gifted" with a health care
plan we are
forced to purchase and
fined
if we don't,
Which purportedly covers at least
ten million more people
,
without adding
a single new doctor,
but provides for
16,000 new IRS agents,
written by a committee whose chairman
says he
doesn't understand it,
passed by a Congress that didn't read it but
exempted
themselves from it,
and signed by a President who smokes,
with funding administered by a treasury chief who
didn't pay his taxes
,
for which we'll be taxed for four years before any
benefits take effect
,
by a government which has
already bankrupted Social Security and Medicare
,
all to be overseen by a surgeon general
who is
obese,
andfinanced by a country that's broke!!!!!
'What the hell could
possibly
go wrong
?'








Obama, you're Fired

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  #828 (permalink)
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Michael.H View Post
looking for 125 area on the SPY for an entry. It depends on how the market reacts around there, then ill take a short. this is way too low for a short entry still. That capitulation i was talking about needs time to work itself out.


tigertrader View Post
I bet you we see 105.00 before we see 125.00


Michael.H View Post
Maybe... I just consider that a good entry point. If it gets there, great, if not, then ill figure out what to do then.

Well, we got to 124, which was close enough for a low risk short entry. So far Fridays action helped, and the trade so far is working out great. Good luck to all who are short.

BTW... I just wanted to point out, to everyone that said im too bullish when i kept repeating that you should buy the dips for the past year. I said when the time comes, the market will give an opp to go short, and ill take it. Well, here it is. Im short. You don't need to pick tops in the market.
Just gotta learn to be patient, and stop listening to cnbc. Ill try to check back sometime next week. Good luck everyone.

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  #829 (permalink)
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Michael.H View Post
Well, we got to 124, which was close enough for a low risk short entry. So far Fridays action helped, and the trade so far is working out great. Good luck to all who are short.

BTW... I just wanted to point out, to everyone that said im too bullish when i kept repeating that you should buy the dips for the past year. I said when the time comes, the market will give an opp to go short, and ill take it. Well, here it is. Im short. You don't need to pick tops in the market.
Just gotta learn to be patient, and stop listening to cnbc. Ill try to check back sometime next week. Good luck everyone.

What's your point in quoting me? I didn't say the market wasn't going to rally and then fail. In fact, I did say it would rally and fail. I just said SPY wouldn't reach 125 on the rally - which it didn't. Last time I looked 124 was not 125.

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  #830 (permalink)
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What's Driving the Selloff?

The average stock in the S&P 500 is down 4.61% over the last two days. We wanted to see how a stock's performance during the 8%+ rally from 8/22 to 8/31 has impacted performance since 8/31. To do this, we broke the S&P 500 into deciles (10 groups of 50 stocks each) based on performance during the rally, and then calculated the average performance of stocks in each deciles during the current 2-day selloff.
As shown below, the better a stock performed during the rally, the more it has gone down during the pullback. The 50 stocks that went up the most from 8/22 to 8/31 are down an average of 6.40% since 8/31. Conversely, the 50 stocks that went up the least from 8/22 to 8/31 are only down an average of 2.28%. Investors have clearly been selling their winners over the past two days.


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Bullish Sentiment Up Again

According to AAII's weekly poll of investor sentiment, bullish sentiment rose to 38.62% in the latest week. This now represents the fourth straight week where bullish sentiment has improved. It's hard to believe, but since S&P downgraded the AAA debt rating of the United States on August 5th, bullish sentiment has done nothing but go up.




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Wake Me Up When September Ends

Below we highlight the average monthly performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the last 50 years. As shown, the month of September has been the worst month for the Dow with an average decline of 0.79%.




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Courtesy of Bespoke

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There doesn’t appear to be a strong directional edge, but one thing that is evident in all of these Septembers is that there was high volatility. The 1966 instance saw the smallest range with the market moving a little over 5% from high to low. Six of the eight instances saw ranges of 9.5%+ in September. So I would not look for the action to dull this month.

Courtesy of Quantifiable Edges

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ES and the Great POMO Rally-098410a673988a1ef1722575dba3ece2.png   ES and the Great POMO Rally-20110831-012.gif  

Last edited by tigertrader; September 5th, 2011 at 11:34 AM.
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