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ES and the Great POMO Rally
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ES and the Great POMO Rally

  #811 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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...The question is not, if I had to place a trade now and keep it opened for 10 days, what would it be? Because, I don't have to place a trade -right now. I'm more concerned with, what am I going to do, if the market does this? The burning question is, and always is, "what will I do if the market rallies/breaks to a certain level, or reacts to an economic report or news in a certain way...

The reason i formulated my question like this was because it is not always evident to synthetize your comment into actionable knowledge. Something similar to what Mirus is sending every day could compliment your analysis nicely:

This was for today prior to the opening.

Pivot: 1184

Our Preference
: LONG positions above 1184 with targets @ 1222 & 1230.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1184 will call for a slide towards 1167 & 1155.

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  #812 (permalink)
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bANZAI bERNANKE!

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  #813 (permalink)
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1180 price target by Friday, although they may take it up one more time, to shakeout the weak shorts, trap some more longs, and get shorter. Would still get short against 1231-1233.

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  #814 (permalink)
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The market rallies as though all the problems that brought the steep decline for the past weeks no longer exist.

But I do wonder if it is this type of rallies that would draw in new buyers to sell the market down to a even lower level.

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  #815 (permalink)
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The problem with technical analysis is that it can be very subjective and open to interpretation, which is a critical factor to keep in mind. It is the technicians and not the market itself, that perceives these abstract formations, assign significance to them, and then base their decisions upon this analysis, thereby fulfilling their prophecy.

In the first 2 charts, we can see a classic bear flag, followed by a bear pennant, both of which carry a strong implication of a bearish continuation in price. In the 3rd chart we see an interpretation of a diamond formation.

Diamond formations turn out to be continuation patterns the majority of the time, but can also be a reversal pattern, albeit less frequently than they are a continuation pattern, and more often as tops than bottoms.

Nevertheless, the market appears to be headed lower, unless of course - it goes higher, in which case the technicians will be calling the pattern, a diamond reversal formation.


Diamond reversal, it is...

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  #816 (permalink)
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LOL - i just see a BIG 'W' formation in development.

Regarding subjectivity related to our analysis you mark a point but certain techniques are more prone to favor it. Namely, pivot points, Fibonacci studies, Elliot waves, patterns are all techniques that enter into this category. In fact, most techniques based on mathematical equations are prone to favor subjectivity. On the other hand, techniques that identify supply/demand objectively based on volatility and volume at price are less prone to subjectivity and consequently more reliable. That's my subjective opinion and i am sure open to dispute.

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  #817 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
LOL - i just see a BIG 'W' formation in development.

Regarding subjectivity related to our analysis you mark a point but certain techniques are more prone to favor it. Namely, pivot points, Fibonacci studies, Elliot waves, patterns are all techniques that enter into this category. In fact, most techniques based on mathematical equations are prone to favor subjectivity. On the other hand, techniques that identify supply/demand objectively based on volatility and volume at price are less prone to subjectivity and consequently more reliable. That's my subjective opinion and i am sure open to dispute.

You have to read my original posts, #794 and #797, otherwise my last post is out of context.

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  #818 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
You have to read my original posts, #794 and #797, otherwise my last post is out of context.


I was just listening to a recording by Jim Dalton from 2000 in which he states that one of the hallmarks of a good trader is that they can tell you all the things the market COULD have done and didn't. His point was that it is important to understand the implications of what the market did, but it is equally important to understand what it could have done and did not do. This later type of analysis tells you a lot about the composition of the market's participants.

For instance, today could have balanced all day, or could have balanced early and then broken out to the upside with a continuation of the existing week-long trend up from the lows. Right now (3:30 est) it looks like the market balanced early and broke lower - perhaps closing on or near its lows.

I expected balance up here (betw 710 and 735 on the russell) and a break to the downside but I expected that the market would simply balance today and possibly break in response to the employment situation tomorrow. I am eager to see what tomorrow brings...

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  #819 (permalink)
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I was just listening to a recording by Jim Dalton from 2000 in which he states that one of the hallmarks of a good trader is that they can tell you all the things the market COULD have done and didn't. His point was that it is important to understand the implications of what the market did, but it is equally important to understand what it could have done and did not do. This later type of analysis tells you a lot about the composition of the market's participants.
...

I understand this point but again i think it is not necessary to go that far to make money specially if you just scalp for a few ticks of profit at a time. This later type of analysis as you wrote is more akin to developing an ability like playing a musical instrument. In that sense, it's an art. But hopefully, you can play good music without learning how to read it.

Most systems we see on futures.io (formerly BMT) are in that league. They are systems to scalp a few ticks here and there. They can be used without being too much concerned with the overall market context as exposed in this thread.

However, if you can develop this ability then i suppose it may open the door to a less stressfull way of trading and to more opportunities because you can plan ahead of time different scenarios. I am not there i can't tell for sure but this is how i see it at my stage as a trader.

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  #820 (permalink)
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Just a heads up for possible support - confluence of 50EMA and Wolfe target support, et al.

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