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ES and the Great POMO Rally
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ES and the Great POMO Rally

  #771 (permalink)
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Incredible as it may seem, FRNYB President Bill Dudley, said the other day, that he expects second half growth should be "considerably firmer" than the first half. But the world's other economists, the bond and stock markets, and the oil market ( crude fell nearly 7%), seem to disagree. Apparently, what he really meant, was they can't get much worse. After the Philly Fed Index ( expected to be +2.0) reported -30.7, which was near the worst levels of the 2001-02 recession and not far from the lowest levels of 2008, he must have felt the odds were in his favor. The always insightful, Charles Hugh Smith, thinks otherwise, of course. He explains why in the following article.


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The Fed Cannot Stave Off the Inevitable Market Revaluation

August 18, 2011


The Fed has yet to learn that you can't fool Mother Nature for very long, but it's about to get a punishing lesson. Did the Federal Reserve's QE2 program last year simply push the inevitable stock market decline forward a few months? It would seem so. In Remind Us Again Why Anyone Should Own Stocks For the Next Two Years (August 3, 2011) and The Junkie in the Pool and False Idols: Faith in Wall Street and The Fed Has Has Eroded (August 10, 2011) I included a chart of the current S&P 500 plotted against the two Great Bear Markets of last century, the Great Depression-era Dow Jones Industrial Average (1929 crash) and the Nikkei stock market from 1989.
It certainly looked like all the Fed accomplished with its $600 billion QE2 was stave off the inevitable by a few months:
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Courtesy of The Chart Store, here is more evidence that the Fed just pushed the day of reckoning forward a few months: the first charts the current NASDAQ market plotted over the Great Depression Dow, and the second plots the current NASDAQ over the post-1989 Nikkei market.
The similarity of the two Bear market progressions is uncanny. As Ron Greiss of the Chart Store notes on the chart, "Did QE2 prevent nature from pursuing its intended course?" Judging by the recent "unexpected" cascade in stock valuations, it seems the Fed has yet to learn that you can't fool Mother Nature for very long:
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Once again it looks like the Fed's attempt to stave off the inevitable crash in stock market valuations was temporary rather than permanent:
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This week we see the same game plan being worked once again: smash the U.S. dollar and juice the risk trade, as if the inevitable recalibration with reality can be staved off forever. Judging by these three charts, that recalibration will take about another two years.
Perhaps when the stock market reaches its inevitable (i.e. unmanipulated) true value some time in 2013, then the Fed's attempts to fool Mother Nature will be seen for what they are: catastrophic failures.
Here is a bonus chart, courtesy of The Chart Store, that overlays the current rally and collapse with the Dow's 1907 crash. The similarity is rather uncanny:
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As we can see, The Fed's QE2 didn't change the future decline, it simply pushed it forward a few months: the current market has now caught up with the 1907 decline.
With inflation rising and the markets falling, just how effective do you reckon QE3 or any other gambit will be in staving off reality?


Last edited by tigertrader; August 20th, 2011 at 01:15 PM.
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Thanks Lornz ... I know whats going on in the market, so no worries about that. I don't want ADR's s simply because i wanted to get paid dividends in norwegians krona, as opposed to US dollars. I can handle the timing of the markets, but need more info on the actual companies. I like norway since they're more stable, and aren't tied to the Euro or the US dollar. I also know of John Fredriksen, he's the richest man in Norway.... I will prob send you a PM so we don't get off topic on this thread, and you can go ahead and shoot me a PM if you need anything. Appreciate the help

BTW, i caught your post in another thread. Its funny how swedes and norwegians like to pick on each other. You can always sense that sibling rivalry. Can't tell you how many swede/norwegian jokes i've heard from my friends.. lol Cracks me up


Last edited by Michael.H; August 20th, 2011 at 06:00 PM.
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Michael.H View Post
Thanks Lornz ... I know whats going on in the market, so no worries about that. I don't want ADR's s simply because i wanted to get paid dividends in norwegians krona, as opposed to US dollars. I can handle the timing of the markets, but need more info on the actual companies. I like norway since they're more stable, and aren't tied to the Euro or the US dollar. I also know of John Fredriksen, he's the richest man in Norway.... I will prob send you a PM so we don't get off topic on this thread, and you can go ahead and shoot me a PM if you need anything. Appreciate the help

BTW, i caught your post in another thread. Its funny how swedes and norwegians like to pick on each other. You can always sense that sibling rivalry. Can't tell you how many swede/norwegian jokes i've heard from my friends.. lol Cracks me up

I apologize, I did not mean to seem condescending. I just wanted to cover my bases; I'd hate for you, or anyone else reading this thread, to lose money on my "advice"...

For the reasons you stated, investing in Norway might be a good idea. It is definitely how I am positioned with regard to my longer term positions. PM me any time, it is always interesting to discuss such topics...

Haha, the Swedes are a great source of comedic inspiration... We've become invaded by them again in recent years; They have taken over the service industry, the wages are so much higher here in Norway (I guess the Euro isn't all positive). I'm happy about it, though. They are significantly more service-minded than Norwegians, I have to give them that. In addition to being the scum of the earth, I mean...

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none taken my friend Ill keep in touch.

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  #775 (permalink)
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Equities down, but dollar closes lower...

Commodities, energy, long bonds, and gold, up... but euro closes higher

Bounce on Monday, or "stagflation" being priced into the market ?

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The market is showing strength today despite the not so good news. If it can close high today, I think we would see a rally all the way to Friday's speech in Jackson Hole.

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jonc View Post
The market is showing strength today despite the not so good news. If it can close high today, I think we would see a rally all the way to Friday's speech in Jackson Hole.

Yes, risk trade, is back on...for now.

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ES and the Great POMO Rally-fut_image.ashx.png   ES and the Great POMO Rally-es-09-11-135-min-8_23_2011.jpg   ES and the Great POMO Rally-es-09-11-135-min-8_24_2011.jpg  

Last edited by tigertrader; August 24th, 2011 at 12:43 AM.
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Looks like we're getting that bounce i was going for. Generally, you want to watch for divergences between markets and stocks to get a good entry. Usually a higher high, higher low... etc
Let see how it works out.

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Michael.H View Post
Looks like we're getting that bounce i was going for. Generally, you want to watch for divergences between markets and stocks to get a good entry. Usually a higher high, higher low... etc
Let see how it works out.

Are you looking to short on the bounce?

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thats the goal

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