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ES and the Great POMO Rally
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ES and the Great POMO Rally

  #581 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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$ held it's lows - that's why the ES is having a hard time making new highs - could pull back all the way to the VWAP if the $ rallies - new lows in the $ = new highs in the ES

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  #582 (permalink)
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redratsal View Post
The regression channel is acting as a resistance, if we pass through next level is weekly vwap at 1265 to close the gap

Eh, that channel will be different in a few minutes.. I am not sure I would say it is acting as resistance. I'm sure some fib calculation could also explain it. I try not to look for reasons why a market is doing something, you'll spend all your time doing that and none of them are very reliable in terms of the real "reason" behind it.

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  #583 (permalink)
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No doubt, Mike! Traders like to think in terms of cause and effect, when all it boils down to is more buyers than sellers, and the market goes higher- more sellers than buyers, and the market goes lower.

Prices move as a result of traders’ changing attitudes, and shifts in perception about the market. At the most basic level people buy stocks because they think the price is going to go up, and they sell stocks because they think the price is going to go down. On a more practical level they are either following movement and momentum, or are “trapped” and are exiting their positions.

This thought process is carried out at a very basic emotional level and has nothing to do with fundamentals or technicals, although a fundamental and technical rationale is often trotted to justify why the market is going higher or lower.


Traders can visualize a double-top, a head-and-shoulders formation, and identify a Fibonacci retracement, but the market can’t. It’s the technicians that try to attach a logical meaning to these abstract patterns, and the concomitant phenomena of self-fulfilling prophecy, that makes it appear to play out.

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  #584 (permalink)
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Interesting context right here - as has been observed, a very important chance for the bulls to print a reversal bar on the daily but right now it looks like the bears are winning the short term fight. Very easy to imagine this current down channel as a precursor to a move up into the close. But of course this may be exactly what the bears want traders to think so they can trap a bunch of bulls before closing below the open. Saying its an uphill battle for the bulls may be an understatement... seems easier for the bears to keep it below the open than for bulls to stage an afternoon rally. This is what makes trading so interesting, right?

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  #585 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Eh, that channel will be different in a few minutes.. I am not sure I would say it is acting as resistance. I'm sure some fib calculation could also explain it. I try not to look for reasons why a market is doing something, you'll spend all your time doing that and none of them are very reliable in terms of the real "reason" behind it.

Mike

If I read the chart I can see 3 points where the market rebounced over the reg channel, for what will be happening next we can discuss for hours with any kind of theories, isn't what this thread is all about ? Go long or go short as long as you are convinced about what you are doing.

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  #586 (permalink)
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redratsal View Post
If I read the chart I can see 3 points where the market rebounced over the reg channel, for what will be happening next we can discuss for hours with any kind of theories, isn't what this thread is all about ?

Al, absolutely -- and I encourage discussion. I'm just saying I don't personally think the reg channel has anything to do with acting as resistance. I'm sure you know this, but for others who don't --- the reg channel constantly repaints itself, always repositioning itself, which makes it look incredibly useful up until you take a trade because of it and the next bar it has repainted again.

Mike

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  #587 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Al, absolutely -- and I encourage discussion. I'm just saying I don't personally think the reg channel has anything to do with acting as resistance. I'm sure you know this, but for others who don't --- the reg channel constantly repaints itself, always repositioning itself, which makes it look incredibly useful up until you take a trade because of it and the next bar it has repainted again.

Mike

The reg channel has to repaint as PA goes on, the same way we adjust manually our TL accordingly

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  #588 (permalink)
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News Headlines

This guy calling for 1120, and says 1248-1252 is resistance as the neckline of H&S.

I don't trade these patterns, mainly because if in a week this H&S failed no one calls it a failed H&S but instead there is some new name to justify what happened

But, just sharing..

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Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

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  #589 (permalink)
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Surly View Post
Interesting context right here - as has been observed, a very important chance for the bulls to print a reversal bar on the daily but right now it looks like the bears are winning the short term fight. Very easy to imagine this current down channel as a precursor to a move up into the close. But of course this may be exactly what the bears want traders to think so they can trap a bunch of bulls before closing below the open. Saying its an uphill battle for the bulls may be an understatement... seems easier for the bears to keep it below the open than for bulls to stage an afternoon rally. This is what makes trading so interesting, right?


Added...I'll get out of the another 1/3 of my longs @ 1271.00 and hold the last third. Of course, there is stiil time for "broken dreams" and "heart break"!!!

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  #590 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
It's boiled down to this, as far as protective stops are concerned.

50% position - 1235.00 mental stop

50% position - 1231.00 mental stop


tigertrader View Post
Trading can be addictive - been doing it for 40 years, and I will still put in a 36 hour marathon session, every now and then.

Indeed, I've had a huge week, but I've been pushing it. I decided to take the rest of the day off....

Thanks for your contributions today, it's not often traders take the trouble to post trades real-time. I also see your stop just held, so you caught even a few more points. I'm not comfortable with giving that much back when trading futures, I'd rather secure profits and jump in again later... But that's just me...

Anyway, thanks for sharing and nice trading, I'm sure it helped a lot of the struggling traders out. Using VWAP with SD bands is a good foundation for forming a trading strategy...

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