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ES and the Great POMO Rally
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ES and the Great POMO Rally

  #541 (permalink)
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Michael.H View Post
Just as a note to anyone that was following... my stop loss got triggered on the NQ when it broke its previous days low ( gave back about 1k on last 2 positions)... so did my ES position as well with a slight profit on the remaining positions. I did from both trades, but NQ was no nearly as big as the ES trade.
I am officially flat.
I realized that i closed the position out near support, but im not turning it to a loser, and i can always get back in and do this again if the market changes its mind. So far, i believe its neutral to bearish. I am not short or am shorting for the time being.

Thanks for the update. You still had a great trade on. Well done!

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  #542 (permalink)
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My gut says long gold, long crude, long euro, long sp500. I think the dollar will continue to weaken, QE42 will continue to pump zillions into the market, gold will continue to see an increase as more traders move into it, and long crude just because it's hard to be short crude.

See you next election

Mike

Maybe it's just that simple. I am starting to struggle psychologically. I've been long various instruments for years, and things should correct soon. But that might take a while... Cognitive bias is a bad thing, I have to pull myself together.

The Dollar Index is at major support, it will be interesting to see if it can push through and down to the 60's. Hopefully it will, that will buy me a few more Big Macs when I return next year...

I can see Crude taking a dive, though... But, as you say, this might just be start of the next bull market, with everything going up, while the buying power of the public plummets...

The only thing I am fairly confident of, is that the volatility is here to stay... Thus my main trading focus will be on that...

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  #543 (permalink)
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dutchbookmaker View Post
It is our own fault these people can get away with such non free market nonsense.
Instead of smug one up manship with posting stupid cartoon videos this should be a lesson in Hayekian philosophy.

‪Hayek's 'The Road to Serfdom' in Five Minutes‬‏ - YouTube

That's the problem with democracies; people get what they deserve... Bernanke is irrelevant, these decisions are not made in a vacuum by the Chairman... He is just put there, so simpletons like myself have someone to make fun of...

Hayek, although being my favorite economist, is dead and buried. Not even his Nobel Prize could get him taken seriously enough in the right circles... His theories appear counterintuitive to most, and will not be taken into consideration until the welfare society ends, if it ever does.

As for "stupid cartoon", you must remember that the epitome of intelligence is wit... Whether or not the video falls under that category, is up for debate, I guess...

If you don't like animation, how about this:

The Big Bank Theory - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart - 12/07/10 - Video Clip | Comedy Central

We can debate whether the apparent incompetence is due to the powers that be having no clue as to how to fix the problem, or that they are inherently corrupt... It really doesn't matter, the outcome is the same...

The major problem is that our societies are founded on economic principles that require perpetual growth. This does not bode well with the markets inherent desire to have "cleansing periods", thus efficiently correcting excess. Instead "we" throw more money at the problems, creating even more excess and unbalance. At some point, at least logic dictates, this will no longer be possible and the correction will be far more severe than it needed to be...


Last edited by Lornz; August 3rd, 2011 at 08:23 AM.
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  #544 (permalink)
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In addendum

It's hard to take someone serious after repeated shameful displays of blatant lies, or worse, a horrifying incompetence..

What's worse, is that people might take his word for it, and have their 401Ks suffer accordingly...


Lornz View Post
Bernanke: There's No Housing Bubble to Go Bust - washingtonpost.com

"That view mirrors Greenspan's. He and Bernanke have both said it is unrealistic to expect the Fed to identify a bubble in stock or real estate prices as it is inflating, or to be able to pop it without hurting the economy. Instead, the Fed should stand ready to mop up the economic aftermath of a bubble.

Greenspan, for example, has rejected suggestions that the Fed should have raised interest rates in the late 1990s sooner or higher to slow soaring stock prices. He says the Fed got it right after that boom by cutting its benchmark rate deeply in 2001, in response to falling stock prices, the recession and the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks."

-------

I find it amazing that Greenspan won't acknowledge the mess "he" created. First with not raising rates during the techboom, and then keeping rates unnecessarily low after 9/11.

As for Bernanke, I guess you have to remember that fundamentals were strong:


I am happy we have such trustworthy and competent people in charge. Some people called it though, I remember Jim Rogers saying Citi would be a buy at $5:

Stock market 'winter' is moving in - MSN Money

"Technically, it's bankrupt, with gigantic off-balance-sheet derivatives positions whose value it cannot possibly know," he says. Though he believes some large banks can and will go under in the next year or two under the weight of billions of dollars worth of bad loans and blown-up derivatives positions, he doubts the government will allow Citi or Fannie to fail. "They'll nationalize them in some way. It's wrong, but they can't let the two largest lenders in the nation go down."

The fund manager, who has traveled extensively in emerging markets and lives part of the year in Asia, says sovereign wealth funds in Abu Dhabi and Singapore that recently made large investments in Citigroup and UBS AG (UBS, news, msgs) are likely to lose a lot of money on their ploys. "They're making a big mistake; these banks have many more problems still ahead. They should wait until these companies are really on the ropes a few years from now . . . and trading at $5 a share."

------

It looks like his call for Gold at $2000 is on its way too:

Roubini Says Rogers?s $2,000 Gold ?Utter Nonsense? (Update1) - Bloomberg

Nouriel Roubini, the economist who predicted the global economic crisis, said a forecast by investor Jim Rogers that gold will double to at least $2,000 an ounce is “utter nonsense.”

There is no inflation or “near-depression” to drive gold prices that high, Roubini said today at the Inside Commodities Conference in New York. If a severe depression came to pass, with investors buying canned goods and hiding out in log cabins, “maybe you want some gold in that scenario,” Roubini said.

“Maybe it will reach $1,100 or so but $1,500 or $2,000 is nonsense,” Roubini said.

--------

Sometimes trading/investing is so easy it's difficult. It's not that I have followed Rogers advice, but in times of weakness I have revisited some of his interviews to gain confidence enough to still "hold". To quote Livermore: "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!"
With QE3 on the horizon it appears to still be the way to go....

I completely agree with your post, and I think it's shameful how everything transpired. It's too bad the general population don't have a basic understanding of economics, otherwise maybe things could've been different.


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  #545 (permalink)
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The biggest sell signal was just shot across the bow, lol. This just in... Barton Biggs is bullish on stocks.

But he does bring up a good point that the next QE will most likely have a very different look to it. He predicts the Fed will buy mortgages and... residential RE?

Barton Biggs: Buy Stocks Aggressively, And Get Ready For A "Different Kind Of QE3"

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  #546 (permalink)
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Here's the washout (capitulation) - going to start nibbling at some longs here.

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Private Banker View Post
The biggest sell signal was just shot across the bow, lol. This just in... Barton Biggs is bullish on stocks.

But he does bring up a good point that the next QE will most likely have a very different look to it. He predicts the Fed will buy mortgages and... residential RE?

Barton Biggs: Buy Stocks Aggressively, And Get Ready For A "Different Kind Of QE3"

Haha, he is an excellent fade...

What an amazing day. It's incredible how fast the ES moves, it's almost like trading oil. Oil down substantially today as well... How nice it is to just ride everything down...

But could this be a day with an afternoon rally? Is the ES building a base here, or is it just trapping longs..?

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  #548 (permalink)
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Lornz View Post
Haha, he is an excellent fade...

What an amazing day. It's incredible how fast the ES moves, it's almost like trading oil. Oil down substantially today as well... How nice it is to just ride everything down...

But could this be a day with an afternoon rally? Is the ES building a base here, or is it just trapping longs..?


If anything, it's trapping shorts! Consider them trapped, if the ES trades above 1242.50.

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Lornz View Post
Haha, he is an excellent fade...

What an amazing day. It's incredible how fast the ES moves, it's almost like trading oil. Oil down substantially today as well... How nice it is to just ride everything down...

But could this be a day with an afternoon rally? Is the ES building a base here, or is it just trapping longs..?

Tough to say. I guess it depends on the way you're trading. Market sold off hard retraced to the 61.8 and appears to be dropping again. This is amazing though! ES is replacing CL, lol!

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Needs to get above the VWAP and accept, and we'll be well on our way to a reversal day.

Got a little long about a half-hour ago, and am looking to add if the market is accepted above the VWAP.

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