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ES and the Great POMO Rally
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ES and the Great POMO Rally

  #531 (permalink)
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My gut says long gold, long crude, long euro, long sp500. I think the dollar will continue to weaken, QE42 will continue to pump zillions into the market, gold will continue to see an increase as more traders move into it, and long crude just because it's hard to be short crude.

See you next election

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  #532 (permalink)
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dutchbookmaker View Post
Vix is disturbingly not afraid of this last month. We are not at max pain at all, not even close. My friends that don't care about the markets at all have not even mentioned this last month as far as causing the herd to stampede for the exit.

The only thing I can see to account for that is that it is really not that surprising if we double dip recession wise here.

Faster than previous expected regime change, is also not that unexpected IMO.
Anyone who started trading post crisis needs to take risk off the table as this is the point that newbs vanish into thin air.

What is really interesting is the overall mindset is getting back to a bull market...
We are range bound like in the 70s as far as the eye can see..
When the idea of a bull market has died, your friends no longer believe they will ever retire with their 401k, that will be max pain and the time to leverage up/all in long.

LEAPS puts are on sale because of this right now.

didn't say we're at max pain - said the most pain would be felt if the market rallied

mentioned the failure of the VIX to make new highs in a previous post and the fact that it looks overextended

not saying ES is ready to take out the May highs quite yet, just saying we're oversold and due for a bounce


Last edited by tigertrader; August 3rd, 2011 at 07:35 PM.
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  #533 (permalink)
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Have I missed something? There is no stimulus plan to my knowledge to help the S&P rally and with all the negative economic news IMO we should see this market continue its bearish move until Bernake creates his next scam.

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  #534 (permalink)
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Bernanke said a third round of quantitative easing could be necessary if the economy fails to regain momentum in the second half of the year.

To me, I see no possible reason the economy is going to "regain momentum" at the rate we're going. Things are getting worse, not better. So, I am betting on QE3. And with QE3, you want to be long. Don't bet against the printing presses.

Now ultimately, longer term, say after the election, then I am going to really become bearish because the world sucks and the US sucks more. But I think between now and the election, QE3, QE4, and so forth will "protect" the market and move it higher. Not to mention, we know QE1 and QE2 have been a failure in everything except raising the sticker price of the SP500 and Dow. That kind of fubar will catch up with us eventually, sending us into a much bigger "double dip" recession than we saw in 2008. In my opinion, of course.

Last -- trade what you see. I have my "feelings" on the above, but I trade what is in front of me and try to leave my bias at the door. It's still fun to make conjecture...

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  #535 (permalink)
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Oh, and it probably wont be called QE3 because of the negative "press" that has received. But no matter what he calls it, result is the same.

Mike

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  #536 (permalink)
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Screen Trader View Post
Have I missed something? There is no stimulus plan to my knowledge to help the S&P rally and with all the negative economic news IMO we should see this market continue its bearish move until Bernake creates his next scam.

High probability for at least a technical rally...

We just completed the 7th consecutive down day for the S&P 500 index.

Since 1988, there have only been 4 times where the SPX was down for at least 7 days in a row. 3 of those streaks were extended into an 8th day, and none lasted for 9 days.

Since 1998, there have only been 2 streaks of at least 7 consecutive down days, with one of those lasting an 8th day.

But to answer you question, " Why is the market going higher?"

The answer is the same as the answer to this question, "Why does a dog lick his balls?"

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  #537 (permalink)
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Just as a note to anyone that was following... my stop loss got triggered on the NQ when it broke its previous days low ( gave back about 1k on last 2 positions)... so did my ES position as well with a slight profit on the remaining positions. I did from both trades, but NQ was no nearly as big as the ES trade.
I am officially flat.
I realized that i closed the position out near support, but im not turning it to a loser, and i can always get back in and do this again if the market changes its mind. So far, i believe its neutral to bearish. I am not short or am shorting for the time being.

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  #538 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Bernanke said a third round of quantitative easing could be necessary if the economy fails to regain momentum in the second half of the year.

To me, I see no possible reason the economy is going to "regain momentum" at the rate we're going. Things are getting worse, not better. So, I am betting on QE3. And with QE3, you want to be long. Don't bet against the printing presses.

Now ultimately, longer term, say after the election, then I am going to really become bearish because the world sucks and the US sucks more. But I think between now and the election, QE3, QE4, and so forth will "protect" the market and move it higher. Not to mention, we know QE1 and QE2 have been a failure in everything except raising the sticker price of the SP500 and Dow. That kind of fubar will catch up with us eventually, sending us into a much bigger "double dip" recession than we saw in 2008. In my opinion, of course.

Last -- trade what you see. I have my "feelings" on the above, but I trade what is in front of me and try to leave my bias at the door. It's still fun to make conjecture...

Mike


Yes I agree, but until then this market more than likely will continue its bearish move.

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  #539 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
High probability for at least a technical rally...

We just completed the 7th consecutive down day for the S&P 500 index.

Since 1988, there have only been 4 times where the SPX was down for at least 7 days in a row. 3 of those streaks were extended into an 8th day, and none lasted for 9 days.

Since 1998, there have only been 2 streaks of at least 7 consecutive down days, with one of those lasting an 8th day.

But to answer you question, " Why is the market going higher?"

The answer is the same as the answer to this question, "Why does a dog lick his balls?"


I understand this technical aspect, but is this market really going to rally if the numbers for unemployment and NFP are worse than expected? And I can't believe their going to be positive. I'll bet on it going short.

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  #540 (permalink)
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Screen Trader View Post
I understand this technical aspect, but is this market really going to rally if the numbers for unemployment and NFP are worse than expected? And I can't believe their going to be positive. I'll bet on it going short.

I would imagine that a weak payrolls number has already been priced into the market. FOMC meeting results Tuesday carries a strong seasonality with it. While the VIX (fear) has not made new highs, this latest break has obviously been predicated on fear, as evidenced by the flight to safety in gold and treasuries. As Big Mike alluded to, the dollar is probably headed lower. If you look at the accompanying chart of the USD, it looks like it is headed MUCH lower if it were to fail from the 75.00 level.

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