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Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
Yeah CL has been noise for the most part lately. ES has been great! We're sitting right on the 200 MA currently. I would think we re-test the 1252.25 area next. This is getting wild though and has been very similar to the end of 2007. Pretty amazing.
I'd be very careful at these levels - remember the Fed's economic summit is currently taking place in Jackson Hole, and last year, it marked the beginning of a +500 point rally(SPX). Additionally, everybody and their brother is looking for 1250 level right now- could be a massive bear trap.
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
I would agree which is why I'm only intra-day trading. Anything can happen in the next few weeks so, just trading the intra-day moves which has been excellent.
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
There's a potential repeat from yesterday happening. Started off weak, then rallied up to the 61.8 level from yesterday's high which coincided with yesterday's RTH VAL and has since stopped the market. We also filled the overnight gap which was impressive. Some great long trades all the way up. Let's see what happens next. Wild stuff going down.
Negative economic releases across board imply the Fed has little choice but to continue to "prop"up the market. It could be another "Weekend at Bernanke's", if Ben once again leaks hints of Fed action. Despite the budget impasse, the market has held up rather well, and is currently trading at or near long term value. IMO, the market should continue it's bear market rally off the March 2009 recession lows and take out the March 2007 highs - but not by much. To date the market has rallied 106% which is not out-of-line with other post recession rallies. In fact, if the market were to rally to 1574, it would represent a 136.4% rally off the March 2009 lows, which would be the average post recession, bull market, bottom to peak, gain. This would also represent an almost perfect symmetrical move off the June 2010 reactionary low. Until the bulls are truly trapped, we will not have seen a top to the current rally. A contiued rally which makes new highs allows for the bulls to get trapped. The straw that breaks the market's back will probably be an a dramatic rise in interest rates. Thers's a reason why PIMCO is positioned the way they are, albeit their timing may be off. Nevertheless, when it comes to the Bond market, PIMCO is rarley wrong for long. I'm looking for a rally into the fall and a market collapse before the end-of-the-year, that will be of greater magnitude than the previous one.
After last night's market reactions to the ISM Manufacturing PMI readings - supposedly, I read of nothing but bearish articles and outlooks on the net today.
To think just last week, many analysts were commenting on the great earning reports and stated once the debt deal is over the market would rally on fundamentals.
Who knows, next week we might have a massive rally because of some "positive" news ...
