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ES and the Great POMO Rally
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ES and the Great POMO Rally

  #481 (permalink)
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I don't quite understand Greece is set to lead the eurozone's first-ever default with banks across Europe to take as much as 17 billion euro of writedowns on their holdings of Greek sovereign debt and the market is rallying?

Why didn't they default earlier?

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  #482 (permalink)
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Last week, it was a classic head and shoulders pattern which i remember some poeple saying that the ES would go to 500.... Now that the market rallied, it was a fib retracement. Just shows you that these are all useless stuff people teach to newer traders to help explain moves that they don't fully understand. Please DONT take this the wrong way, but you gotta get rid of that stuff. They're all distractions. If you don't believe me, backtest it and tell me how successful it is trading fibs or head and shoulders( or any chart pattern for that matter).... ITs just price and volume.

Im not flat, but i did scale out one more on NQ, still have half position left on ES. Im waiting for the head and shoulders pattern to fail. I've already booked over 25k in 1 month(I did only 6 cars on ES and 4 cars on NQ ). Im not worried about this trade anymore. Remember, my original position was on the ES on 6/16. The NQ trade was just an added bonus. The circles where my entries, which i posted on this thread in real time. No hindsight, you can look back yourself.

Look at that chart and tell me what chart pattern or any other method traders use would give better entry's? And I went all in, meaning you could have looked at my post and gotten better entry's....

Note that chart is only of the ES... You can just look at my post to see where i entered for the NQ......

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  #483 (permalink)
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Private Banker View Post
I would say that this is a continuation of a measured move to the upside. ES retraced to it's 61.8 level on 7/18 and bounced higher. You can also see that there was buying interest at the 50% level so should this play out, we should be seeing new high's. That is of course if nothing bad comes out that would turn this around. At this point, the market ignores bad news and goes sky high on good news. Also, the market has blown through the 61.8 level from the recent high of 1354.50 but it appears to have hit resistance at the 78.6 level which is also last week's RTH high area. On the daily chart, there is also another wedge formation which could provide for a big move.

Cheers,
PB

PB, from a fundamental standpoint do you see that we could rally through the month of August, which is a generally a good month for equities?

All the problems seems to be kicked down the road.

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  #484 (permalink)
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jonc View Post
PB, from a fundamental standpoint do you see that we could rally through the month of August, which is a generally a good month for equities?

All the problems seems to be kicked down the road.

It's definitely possible. The only thing I would say is if any of these issues blow up in Europe or in the US, we'll see a severe reaction I would imagine. But I'm still just intra-day trading the ES given the uncertainty we're going through right now. If you recall in December of 2007, we had a very similar chart pattern occurring where many people had thought a crisis had been avoided. Also, the volatility has picked up quite a bit vs the slow moving days we had during the melt up which signals that there is a power struggle going on with which way the market will go next.

Last night we hit the top of the wedge pattern trend line and have dropped a bit. It will be interesting to see if we blast through it today or re-test the bottom TL over the next few days.

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  #485 (permalink)
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Michael.H View Post
Last week, it was a classic head and shoulders pattern which i remember some poeple saying that the ES would go to 500.... Now that the market rallied, it was a fib retracement. Just shows you that these are all useless stuff people teach to newer traders to help explain moves that they don't fully understand. Please DONT take this the wrong way, but you gotta get rid of that stuff. They're all distractions. If you don't believe me, backtest it and tell me how successful it is trading fibs or head and shoulders( or any chart pattern for that matter).... ITs just price and volume.

Im not flat, but i did scale out one more on NQ, still have half position left on ES. Im waiting for the head and shoulders pattern to fail. I've already booked over 25k in 1 month(I did only 6 cars on ES and 4 cars on NQ ). Im not worried about this trade anymore. Remember, my original position was on the ES on 6/16. The NQ trade was just an added bonus. The circles where my entries, which i posted on this thread in real time. No hindsight, you can look back yourself.

Look at that chart and tell me what chart pattern or any other method traders use would give better entry's? And I went all in, meaning you could have looked at my post and gotten better entry's....

Note that chart is only of the ES... You can just look at my post to see where i entered for the NQ......

Great trade so far! Thank you for sharing those details. Nice profit off such a small position, that's awesome. Please keep us informed on how it goes.

I would agree that using Fibs as a sole reason for an entry is usually not the right decision but they are good for an after the fact technical analysis tool IMO. By just using price and volume as a means for an entry is fine if it works for you. But just because it works for you doesn't mean 1. It will work for everyone and 2. Is the best methodology. There is no one single best method out there.

You can build a case for and against any method out there. Obviously the best method is what ever works best for each individual trader that allows them to achieve CP. It doesn't matter what other people think of their method as we aren't in this business to try and impress others. At the end of the day, we're doing this to simply make money and if that means someone is using a method that requires them to trade with a Bra on their head (lol!), that's fine. As long as they're making money (and hopefully no one sees them), that's all that matters.

Cheers,
PB

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  #486 (permalink)
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Michael.H View Post
Last week, it was a classic head and shoulders pattern which i remember some poeple saying that the ES would go to 500.... Now that the market rallied, it was a fib retracement. Just shows you that these are all useless stuff people teach to newer traders to help explain moves that they don't fully understand. Please DONT take this the wrong way, but you gotta get rid of that stuff. They're all distractions. If you don't believe me, backtest it and tell me how successful it is trading fibs or head and shoulders( or any chart pattern for that matter).... ITs just price and volume.

Im not flat, but i did scale out one more on NQ, still have half position left on ES. Im waiting for the head and shoulders pattern to fail. I've already booked over 25k in 1 month(I did only 6 cars on ES and 4 cars on NQ ). Im not worried about this trade anymore. Remember, my original position was on the ES on 6/16. The NQ trade was just an added bonus. The circles where my entries, which i posted on this thread in real time. No hindsight, you can look back yourself.

Look at that chart and tell me what chart pattern or any other method traders use would give better entry's? And I went all in, meaning you could have looked at my post and gotten better entry's....

Note that chart is only of the ES... You can just look at my post to see where i entered for the NQ......

Could you give us more clues how did you pick those entries point? Is it because the volume is higher than average and the price is holding at that level?

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  #487 (permalink)
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Thats part of it, but it also has to do with areas of prior resistance/support. You also want to mark areas where important news came out, and market made a big move. Those areas will usually respond when the market revisits. Also, intermarket analysis( bonds is a big one, oil, gold, forex).. and market leading stocks in relation to the actual index. Market sells off on the ES, makes a lower low, while aapl and goog gap up. Greece defaults, market goes higher. Don't listen to reasons why, just look at the what.


I have alot of posts if you use the search function.

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  #488 (permalink)
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Michael.H View Post
Last week, it was a classic head and shoulders pattern which i remember some poeple saying that the ES would go to 500.... Now that the market rallied, it was a fib retracement. Just shows you that these are all useless stuff people teach to newer traders to help explain moves that they don't fully understand. Please DONT take this the wrong way, but you gotta get rid of that stuff. They're all distractions. If you don't believe me, backtest it and tell me how successful it is trading fibs or head and shoulders( or any chart pattern for that matter).... ITs just price and volume.

Im not flat, but i did scale out one more on NQ, still have half position left on ES. Im waiting for the head and shoulders pattern to fail. I've already booked over 25k in 1 month(I did only 6 cars on ES and 4 cars on NQ ). Im not worried about this trade anymore. Remember, my original position was on the ES on 6/16. The NQ trade was just an added bonus. The circles where my entries, which i posted on this thread in real time. No hindsight, you can look back yourself.

Look at that chart and tell me what chart pattern or any other method traders use would give better entry's? And I went all in, meaning you could have looked at my post and gotten better entry's....

Note that chart is only of the ES... You can just look at my post to see where i entered for the NQ......


Hi, what is your status now? Are flat? Are you still holding? Are you going to reverse and start shorting? Thanks

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A chart of tonight's ES gap, inserted by typing [chart]es[/chart]



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  #490 (permalink)
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Yup, i saw we're down 1%, but thats not even near my NQ entry point.... Im gonna hold for now.. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

I really want to start scaling out on new monthly highs.... I don't want to sell down here.

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