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ES and the Great POMO Rally
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ES and the Great POMO Rally

  #461 (permalink)
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jonc View Post
PB, how do you intra-day trade ES? Take the example of last night, did you buy at the jump that happens at 10 am and short in the middle of the day when ES reaches it's peak?

Hi Jonc,

Yes, my intra-day trades are target based and I trade with the intra-day trend. Traded to the upside in the morning and then noticed a trend change around noon and started taking short entries all the way into the close. I'm obviously using larger time frames as a reference for key levels of support and resistance while smaller time frames for my trade management.

I'm fine with doing this right now as the volatility has increased providing many nice intra-day trades while essentially remaining neutral bias.

Cheers,
PB

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  #462 (permalink)
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Hello PB,

From my Good, Bad, Ugly post you mentioned the euro and bonds might start a domino effect into our economy. And thereís a reason why Iím not working in Wall Street because Iím somewhat clueless in understanding why or how it is possible.

Because as an intraday trader I stay away from news and just read the headlines. Also, Iíve notice when the Euro falls in price the USD rises in price and vica versa. So why would the collapse in the Euro-zone bring the US down?

In order for me to understand the complex EUís financial crisis I had to just break it down to a simple scenario. From the news in the EU their current problems are Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy, and Spain. Each of these countries have large debt problems but Greece and Ireland has accepted additional BAIL-OUT CASH. And the other three are very close in following suit.

You see this is where I donít understand and my scenario is this: If I have a first and second mortgage on a home and fall on hard times and canít pay the notesÖand then the Credit Co. ruins my credit scoreÖand my kids (Greece workers) for some reason canít work to assist in paying the bills, why would the same bank or any bank give me MORE money, give me a 3rd and/or a 4th additional mortgages?

IF I CANíT PAY FOR THE ORIGINAL MORTGAGE, WHAT MAKES THE BANK THINK I CAN PAY FOR THE ADDITIONAL DEBT?

So right now, Iím thinking this is a house of cards? Can Germany and France really bail out the other three nations Italy, Portugal, and Spain?

But even if this FAILED EXPERIMENT, Euro-zone collapse, how is the US economy connected to this?

And then heard that the US BANKS are insuring the Bonds that EU has bought from these failing countriesÖis this true PB?

So the scenario is like the AIG scenario when they couldnít pay the mortgage insurance? Only this isnít just homes where talking aboutÖweíre talking about NATIONS!

So if these Nations default on their debt, then the US Banks are left holding the bag, because the EU is going to want to collect on their insurance policies? Bank Stocks Worthless?

What happens to the dollar if this NIGHTMARE scenario plays out?

Will we be forced to use a new one world currency?

How will this affect trading?

Sorry, Iím not smart enough to figure this stuff outÖand I'm sincerely concerned.

Thanks

"Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen." --- "Therefore, I Believe it and I will see it. And every day and in every way, I am healthier, wealthier, and wiser."
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  #463 (permalink)
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rtrade View Post
Hello PB,

From my Good, Bad, Ugly post you mentioned the euro and bonds might start a domino effect into our economy. And thereís a reason why Iím not working in Wall Street because Iím somewhat clueless in understanding why or how it is possible.

Because as an intraday trader I stay away from news and just read the headlines. Also, Iíve notice when the Euro falls in price the USD rises in price and vica versa. So why would the collapse in the Euro-zone bring the US down?

In order for me to understand the complex EUís financial crisis I had to just break it down to a simple scenario. From the news in the EU their current problems are Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy, and Spain. Each of these countries have large debt problems but Greece and Ireland has accepted additional BAIL-OUT CASH. And the other three are very close in following suit.

You see this is where I donít understand and my scenario is this: If I have a first and second mortgage on a home and fall on hard times and canít pay the notesÖand then the Credit Co. ruins my credit scoreÖand my kids (Greece workers) for some reason canít work to assist in paying the bills, why would the same bank or any bank give me MORE money, give me a 3rd and/or a 4th additional mortgages?

IF I CANíT PAY FOR THE ORIGINAL MORTGAGE, WHAT MAKES THE BANK THINK I CAN PAY FOR THE ADDITIONAL DEBT?

So right now, Iím thinking this is a house of cards? Can Germany and France really bail out the other three nations Italy, Portugal, and Spain?

But even if this FAILED EXPERIMENT, Euro-zone collapse, how is the US economy connected to this?

And then heard that the US BANKS are insuring the Bonds that EU has bought from these failing countriesÖis this true PB?

So the scenario is like the AIG scenario when they couldnít pay the mortgage insurance? Only this isnít just homes where talking aboutÖweíre talking about NATIONS!

So if these Nations default on their debt, then the US Banks are left holding the bag, because the EU is going to want to collect on their insurance policies? Bank Stocks Worthless?

What happens to the dollar if this NIGHTMARE scenario plays out?

Will we be forced to use a new one world currency?

How will this affect trading?

Sorry, Iím not smart enough to figure this stuff outÖand I'm sincerely concerned.

Thanks

Wow, good post! You're correct on what you've said here. It is true that the US Banks are creditors and insurers of this debt via bond ownership and credit default swaps. The PIIGS bail out isn't a bail out of the countries themselves, it's a bail out of the creditors and insurers. Just like the credit crisis here in the US. Most of the bank stocks are already worthless. They've been manipulated by accounting tricks that are very similar to what Enron did back in the day and the SEC and the Accounting board are allowing it.

In a nightmare scenario like this, institutions/people take a fast flight to safety (cash) to the world's reserve currency which happens to be the USD. So if the sh*t hits the fan, you'll see a rush to cash. Until the US loses that reserve currency status, you'll always see the dollar move higher (more demand) when risk is off the table. If you notice the risk on appetite since QE1 & 2 have started, the USD has been getting crushed.

I can't imagine there being a one world currency. As the EU has shown, it's hard enough with neighboring countries.

How will this affect trading? It will increase volatility similar to 2008. If you're an intra-day trader, it was some of the best times ever. I've noticed volatility really starting to pick up lately which has been amazing. No more small doji days! Lol!

That's good that you're concerned but treat it like an opportunity to make some good money. That's the beauty of trading. We can hedge against catastrophic events such as these and benefit from them.

Hope I answered everything correctly.

Cheers,
PB

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  #464 (permalink)
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I added to the position today. i'm going to manage this one seperately from the previous trade. I bought the NQ as opposed to the ES, and its a very light position. STill holding the original from a few weeks ago with half position still open.

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  #465 (permalink)
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rtrade View Post
Hello PB,

From my Good, Bad, Ugly post you mentioned the euro and bonds might start a domino effect into our economy. And there’s a reason why I’m not working in Wall Street because I’m somewhat clueless in understanding why or how it is possible.

Because as an intraday trader I stay away from news and just read the headlines. Also, I’ve notice when the Euro falls in price the USD rises in price and vica versa. So why would the collapse in the Euro-zone bring the US down?

In order for me to understand the complex EU’s financial crisis I had to just break it down to a simple scenario. From the news in the EU their current problems are Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy, and Spain. Each of these countries have large debt problems but Greece and Ireland has accepted additional BAIL-OUT CASH. And the other three are very close in following suit.

You see this is where I don’t understand and my scenario is this: If I have a first and second mortgage on a home and fall on hard times and can’t pay the notes…and then the Credit Co. ruins my credit score…and my kids (Greece workers) for some reason can’t work to assist in paying the bills, why would the same bank or any bank give me MORE money, give me a 3rd and/or a 4th additional mortgages?

IF I CAN’T PAY FOR THE ORIGINAL MORTGAGE, WHAT MAKES THE BANK THINK I CAN PAY FOR THE ADDITIONAL DEBT?

So right now, I’m thinking this is a house of cards? Can Germany and France really bail out the other three nations Italy, Portugal, and Spain?

But even if this FAILED EXPERIMENT, Euro-zone collapse, how is the US economy connected to this?

And then heard that the US BANKS are insuring the Bonds that EU has bought from these failing countries…is this true PB?

So the scenario is like the AIG scenario when they couldn’t pay the mortgage insurance? Only this isn’t just homes where talking about…we’re talking about NATIONS!

So if these Nations default on their debt, then the US Banks are left holding the bag, because the EU is going to want to collect on their insurance policies? Bank Stocks Worthless?

What happens to the dollar if this NIGHTMARE scenario plays out?

Will we be forced to use a new one world currency?

How will this affect trading?

Sorry, I’m not smart enough to figure this stuff out…and I'm sincerely concerned.

Thanks

There's a phrase from a well known old UK sit-com "don't panic Mr Mannering..."

This is a free essay that's a relatively easy read on a complicated subject, giving a decent over view.
LRB ∑ John Lanchester ∑ Once Greece goes?

Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile...

Last edited by zt379; July 16th, 2011 at 12:34 AM.
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  #466 (permalink)
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This might interest some.
It's 4 hours long, !!!
It appears to be quite profound. Being that Pension Funds make more money than almost any corporation and because of the way pension funds are funded, more by the Employer, who is the government via the tax payer, rather than the Employee, the government actually has the highest ownership share in leading corporations such as microsoft and apple etc..and leading banks.
But the tax payer is not the beneficiary of the profits the "funds" makes.!!

Hope it's of interest and not off topic for the thread.

‪THE GREAT PENSION FUND HOAX - Corporation Nation 2‬‏ - YouTube

Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile...

Last edited by zt379; July 16th, 2011 at 04:05 PM.
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  #467 (permalink)
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Private Banker View Post

That's good that you're concerned but treat it like an opportunity to make some good money. That's the beauty of trading. We can hedge against catastrophic events such as these and benefit from them.

Hope I answered everything correctly.

Yes, of course, you did. I'm just trying to figure out how prepare in the event that the Hopeful Best doesn't happen and the Expected Worst does.

I guess as trader, if the worst does happen....US Dollar worthless, Bonds follow the dollar, Interest rates go Hyper-inflated, Commodities like the Softs, Grains, Metals, Energies go through the roof. I can always trade the Swiss Franc. Why, because the Swiss are the best money launderers in the world....so instead of having worthless green backs in my wallet, I'll carry Swiss Francs? As the Marine Corps saying goes...."Adapt and Overcome."

"Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen." --- "Therefore, I Believe it and I will see it. And every day and in every way, I am healthier, wealthier, and wiser."
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  #468 (permalink)
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rtrade View Post
Yes, of course, you did. I'm just trying to figure out how prepare in the event that the Hopeful Best doesn't happen and the Expected Worst does.

I guess as trader, if the worst does happen....US Dollar worthless, Bonds follow the dollar, Interest rates go Hyper-inflated, Commodities like the Softs, Grains, Metals, Energies go through the roof. I can always trade the Swiss Franc. Why, because the Swiss are the best money launderers in the world....so instead of having worthless green backs in my wallet, I'll carry Swiss Francs? As the Marine Corps saying goes...."Adapt and Overcome."

Yeah, it's good to be thinking ahead. The best thing to do as a trader though is to be reactionary rather than biased. We have no idea what could transpire out of the next crisis. The best thing to do is have a plan in place for whatever event may arise. Semper Flexibilis! So, owning alternative currencies such as the Swiss Franc could be one option for sure. But like I said before, the USD is the world's reserve currency. It has more to do then just credit quality. It also has to do with stability as a country (vs. 3rd world countries) and commodities being priced in USD, etc.

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  #469 (permalink)
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Michael.H View Post
I added to the position today. i'm going to manage this one seperately from the previous trade. I bought the NQ as opposed to the ES, and its a very light position. STill holding the original from a few weeks ago with half position still open.

Great trade so far! I take it you are all in at entry and scale out at certain levels. It's interesting to see how others manage swing trades. This is very different than how I would go about it but it is obviously working out well for you. Please keep us posted on how it goes.

Cheers,
PB

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  #470 (permalink)
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Private Banker View Post
But like I said before, the USD is the world's reserve currency. It has more to do then just credit quality. It also has to do with stability as a country (vs. 3rd world countries) and commodities being priced in USD, etc.

Sorry PB, but I don't want seem like I'm harping on this, but what I was getting at was - What happens if the USD is no longer the world's reserve currency? What happens then? I know it will be speculation but what would be a "likely" scenario?

I mean I hear that China, Russia, and other nations are working to undermine the USD as the world reserve currency. Kbit just posted a video of Jim Rogers shorting USD and says the USD is done. (yes, it's one opinion)...but then there's other talking heads saying that Crude Oil will be the next reserve currency....how is that even possible?

That's why I'm asking...because I really don't know what to expect if the USD is no longer the reserve currency...hope you can understand.

"Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen." --- "Therefore, I Believe it and I will see it. And every day and in every way, I am healthier, wealthier, and wiser."
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