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ES and the Great POMO Rally
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ES and the Great POMO Rally

  #441 (permalink)
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Swing trading, i usually make judgement calls by the weeks end. I do have a protective stop, and i thought we would go a little bit lower, but it pretty much double bottomed. When the Nas didn't follow suit and made higher lows with the russell, I held. All those moving averages and indicators do nothing. Only thing you watched that made this a tradable swing trade was huge spike in volume with inability to move lower. You can take everything else off( chart patterns, MACD... etc)
Hope that helps.

I no longer have the time to day trade, so all are swing trades only. BTW... Notice i got a 40+ move on what most poeple are calling a crash. Took about 10 pnts worth of heat, and i called the trade with the market was actually trading below my entry.

Trust me, all you need to watch is price and volume. Indicators and moving averages don't help, specially when it comes to intraday trading, completely useless. I keep saying it.

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  #442 (permalink)
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Michael.H View Post
Swing trading, i usually make judgement calls by the weeks end. I do have a protective stop, and i thought we would go a little bit lower, but it pretty much double bottomed. When the Nas didn't follow suit and made higher lows with the russell, I held. All those moving averages and indicators do nothing. Only thing you watched that made this a tradable swing trade was huge spike in volume with inability to move lower. You can take everything else off( chart patterns, MACD... etc)
Hope that helps.

I no longer have the time to day trade, so all are swing trades only. BTW... Notice i got a 40+ move on what most poeple are calling a crash. Took about 10 pnts worth of heat, and i called the trade with the market was actually trading below my entry.

Trust me, all you need to watch is price and volume. Indicators and moving averages don't help, specially when it comes to intraday trading, completely useless. I keep saying it.

Great trade. I'd have to disagree with your statement here about moving averages, etc. But that's fine, everyone is entitled to their own opinion and their unique way of trading.

Cheers,
PB

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  #443 (permalink)
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Private Banker View Post
Great trade. I'd have to disagree with your statement here about moving averages, etc. But that's fine, everyone is entitled to their own opinion and their unique way of trading.

Cheers,
PB


i have to agree with PB, the way prices react to moving averages is almost spooky to me :P even for intraday


QE2 is ending today. do you guys see a down trend for Jul? The market feels so bullish now.

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  #444 (permalink)
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Hi PB,

I was wondering if you can tell me the pros and cons of trading in a Wall Street firm as to trading on your own as Main Street?

Also, if a Hedge fund were to hire a trader, what would they want to see in that trader...in terms of track record, type of statistics, character of individual, etc...

Thanks

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  #445 (permalink)
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jonc View Post
i have to agree with PB, the way prices react to moving averages is almost spooky to me :P even for intraday


QE2 is ending today. do you guys see a down trend for Jul? The market feels so bullish now.

What we've been seeing since price found support on the 200 day moving average is a complete short squeeze/reversal. This has happened quite a few times in the last year or so. We have now retraced a little more than half way back from the high in May and are now hitting a bearish trend line. Which means we are on the verge of a technical break out again.

Keep in mind a lot of this move was "window dressing" being done by many funds as the end of the 3rd quarter has drawn to a close (as of today). It will be very interesting to see what happens now that the Fed will not be giving free hand outs to the PD's going forward. It almost appeared that they had a big intent to go out with a bang so to speak that last few days. I don't trust the long side at all and will continue remain neutral by just intra-day trading the ES (long or short) even if it means intra-day trading all the way up a wild bull market.

Wow, now that POMO is done, my thread here may be as well. I may have to think up a new one to create, lol! Of course I'll continue to post things as they develop.

And I would agree with your thoughts on moving averages. I feel it's important to be watching what others are watching to understand why the market is moving the way it is. I've used them my entire career and I have an extensive background in investment management where I learned to utilize these tools successfully. I think people should use what works best for them and not worry about what other people think. I think I've said this a million times, there's no holy grail in trading. If you make $1,000 trading off an indicator vs $1,000 off market profile (which is an indicator) or Fibs, what's the difference at the end of the day? Nothing, we're in this for ourselves and you have to trade with what works best for us. There's no better way to trade than another provided you are consistently profitable.



Cheers,
PB

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ES and the Great POMO Rally-es-09-11-daily-7_6_2010-7_1_2011.jpg  

Last edited by Private Banker; June 30th, 2011 at 10:00 PM. Reason: Added chart
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  #446 (permalink)
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rtrade View Post
Hi PB,

I was wondering if you can tell me the pros and cons of trading in a Wall Street firm as to trading on your own as Main Street?

Also, if a Hedge fund were to hire a trader, what would they want to see in that trader...in terms of track record, type of statistics, character of individual, etc...

Thanks

Sure, here are some thoughts on that.

Working for a firm on Wall Street

Pros:

- You receive a salary with some sort of bonus structure typically plus benefits
- You are constantly around other traders and the opportunity for learning and advancing your knowledge is very high
- You gain unequivocal experience in managing money that many never get to have
- You're trading OPM and the psychological factor is far different
- Your tools and access to the markets are phenomenal


Cons

- You have to answer to a boss and live within the corporate culture/politics
- Depending on your role, you may have to answer to clients and deal with their BS
- Your performance is closely watched and you have to be accountable for your mistakes
- You're a W2 wage earner
- You're income is somewhat limited over the long term unless you're a stellar CDS trader or something
- Compliance/risk management personnel
- You have to adhere to a schedule

Trading on your own

Pros:

- You're free to do what you want and trade what you want
- Your income is unlimited
- You have a significant tax advantage if structured correctly
- You make your own schedule and can trade from anywhere you have access to a work station
- You can create your own methodology for the way you trade

Cons

- You have to be profitable or you will go broke
- There is a distinct psychological difference between trading OPM vs your own
- Your tools and access to the markets are limited
- You have to pay for everything such as equipment, internet connections, commissions, fees, etc.
- You're on your own and have no one to turn to for advice typically (unless you want to pay for it)

I will say this, if you ever get the opportunity to work on Wall Street, I highly recommend it for the learning aspect of it. I was on the Street my entire career before deciding to go out on my own. The amount of knowledge you gain is worth it's weight in Gold.

As for what Hedge Funds look for I can tell you it is a case by case basis. It depends on what they're looking for specifically but generally I would say that they would be looking for someone who:

- Has a background in Finance and is an excellent financial communicator (MBA, CFA, CAIA, etc.)
- Is extremely knowledgeable with the capital markets
- Has an established track record for trading
- Can grasp a new trading concept immediately
- Can handle stressful situations while following instructions, thinking clearly and remaining composed
- Someone who is creative and extremely intelligent, who can think outside the box

The list can go on and on but those are some basics. But like I said, there are all sorts of hedge funds out there managing money in all sorts of asset classes and investment disciplines so it's pretty broad to try and nail down anything specifically. For example, let's say the fund specializes in trading an emerging market such as Brazil. I would imagine they would want someone that not only meets the criteria I've listed above but also has a working understanding of Brazil's markets specifically and can fluently speak Portuguese, etc. So, it really depends on the specific fund.

Hope that helps! Please let me know if you have any more questions.

Cheers,
PB

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  #447 (permalink)
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Scaling some out here at 1313.... have half a position left..... Have a happy 4th everyone. Not gonna be here tomorrow, going out for the holiday weekend.

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Thought I might point this out here for your consideration...head and shoulders on weekly
<
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kbit View Post
Thought I might point this out here for your consideration...head and shoulders on weekly
<
Attachment 42494

Wow, look at the body on that candle! That's the biggest up Weekly candle I've seen in a long time. Lol! Good observation on the H&S, we'll have to see what happens there. What a short squeeze! Five days in a row closing at the daily high's. QE2 going out with a bang. Crazy! The nice thing about this run up has been at least the big moves up have occurred during RTH allowing for some great intra-day trades as opposed to an over night ramp where we get side ways chop all day during RTH.

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My 2c



kbit View Post
Thought I might point this out here for your consideration...head and shoulders on weekly
<
Attachment 42494

Assuming Kbit is right, and it makes sense, on a bigger picture we could be in a 3 hills and a mountain pattern (Suri Duddella). If the H&S will be correct its base would be below the 200 EMA and would lead ES to retrace on 61.8% Fib level from it's H at 1153 and reverse for the moutain formation with new HH.



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also from the bottom March 09 the Fib extension 61.8 falls on today's levels, in the coming days it will be a bull/bear fight, in both cases volatility should increase
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just my thoughts


Last edited by redratsal; July 4th, 2011 at 05:24 AM.
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