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ES and the Great POMO Rally
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ES and the Great POMO Rally

  #421 (permalink)
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Looks like we're hitting some support here, i grabbed some shares today at 1264 on the ES, im gonna keep it tight on this, but expecting some sort of bounce within the coming days. Maybe ill get a runner out of this, we'll see.

Its actually currently trading at 1262 in after hour right now... Lets see how it opens tomorrow..

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Michael.H View Post
Looks like we're hitting some support here, i grabbed some shares today at 1264 on the ES, im gonna keep it tight on this, but expecting some sort of bounce within the coming days. Maybe ill get a runner out of this, we'll see.

Its actually currently trading at 1262 in after hour right now... Lets see how it opens tomorrow..

Did you hang on to your position today through the gap fill?

ES definitely found support on the 200 DMA as expected but having a hard time with the 10 DMA. I would think we would bounce from here as well for some sort of retracement. A run up to the 20 DMA would be a half way back from the June 1st selling and a run all the way back up to the 100 day MA would be a half way back from the May 2nd high. Then again, who knows what news is coming out of Europe next. It reminds me of 2008 when there were all kinds of crazy announcements coming out over the weekend. The Euro stopped dead in it's tracks today as it retraced back up to the 61.8% level from Tuesday's sell off. Could get pretty interesting.

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Im still holding on to it. I wanted a little bit more follow through. I don't like how we ended the week. I wanted to see a bit more strength. Ill give it a few more days.. 2-3% cushion..

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  #424 (permalink)
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I had been doing some intraday trades on the DAX; mainly shorting. I was doing quite well until yesterday's mid-day rally caught me big time and it was painful to sit through it. The market retreat came at the last few hours - europe time and allow me to close my positions.

I am thinking any rebounce in the market for the next 2 weeks would be difficult to sustain so I'm looking to short the ES if it re bounce next week. You guys think its a good idea?

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jonc View Post
I had been doing some intraday trades on the DAX; mainly shorting. I was doing quite well until yesterday's mid-day rally caught me big time and it was painful to sit through it. The market retreat came at the last few hours - europe time and allow me to close my positions.

I am thinking any rebounce in the market for the next 2 weeks would be difficult to sustain so I'm looking to short the ES if it re bounce next week. You guys think its a good idea?

It looks like price is trying to form a bottom here on the 200 day moving average so, I can definitely see a bounce from this area and a retracement to the 1290.25 - 1300.00 area. I would definitely keep these levels in mind but be sure to just follow your normal trade entry and exit criteria/risk management.

The only issue with this however is an extension short level at 1277.25 which was hit on Friday and sold off from there. If this follows through, I would expect price to get down to around the 1240.50 area next which would be a break below the 200 day moving average and a break of the next swing low of 1241.25 which could signal some major sell programs and create a big drop. Tough to say what will happen but just utilize your rules and trade what you see on the screen. Also, keep an unbiased opinion on what the market will do because who knows, maybe the market just needed a good pullback to attract more buyers and take this thing to new high's. It wouldn't be the first time that happened and we still haven't heard officially from the Fed.

Cheers,
PB

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I just wanted to add another screen shot of the ES because I think we are about to touch a very important trend line that has held the market several times. I'm also noticing a huge wedge formation on the MACD with the average bearing down on the support line. A break in this trend line could be a signal of things to come. I've observed these wedge break outs several times in the past and many have led to nice moves but of course there is no guarantee. This one just happens to be a lot bigger in scale so it will be interesting to see what happens going forward.

Cheers,
PB

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ES and the Great POMO Rally-es-daily-5_23_2008-6_17_2011-big-picture.jpg   ES and the Great POMO Rally-es-daily-3_30_2010-6_17_2011.jpg  
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  #427 (permalink)
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PB, from a fundamental perspectives how do you see the debt crisis in Europe affecting the stock market in the near future? It seems for now that they have agreed on an interim solution for Greece but there are others who say it is going to be a repetition of Lehman brothers on a nations level - leading to a even bigger crisis.

I do in a sense relies on the "fear" factor in the market to cap rallies and I would take a short trade on moves up to key resistance levels.

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jonc View Post
PB, from a fundamental perspectives how do you see the debt crisis in Europe affecting the stock market in the near future? It seems for now that they have agreed on an interim solution for Greece but there are others who say it is going to be a repetition of Lehman brothers on a nations level - leading to a even bigger crisis.

I do in a sense relies on the "fear" factor in the market to cap rallies and I would take a short trade on moves up to key resistance levels.

If the situation in Europe gets worse, we're going to see 2008 all over again, if not worse this time. So, I would agree with the Lehman scenario to a degree. I'm watching this situation closely because I'm very concerned of the contagion affect this will have. If one of the PIIGS go down, I would assume the others will follow. The affect on the global stock markets will be disastrous of course. The CDS market is certainly pricing in a disastrous outcome of all of this. Rtrade posted a link to an article on Zerohedge discussing what the Fed has done in QE2 which makes sense in that the Fed has filtered a majority of the liquidity to the European primary banks to add a buffer in the event of a major blow up. But like the article mentioned, this will certainly not be enough.

If you've been trading long enough, you'll know that news has a funny way of coming in right around an important support/resistance level. To take advantage of the overall situation, just continue to trade what you see on your screens, pay attention to the news and you'll do very well.

Cheers,
PB

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  #429 (permalink)
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Hey PB, can I post some charts for some serious critiquing?

"Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen." --- "Therefore, I Believe it and I will see it. And every day and in every way, I am healthier, wealthier, and wiser."
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rtrade View Post
Hey PB, can I post some charts for some serious critiquing?

Hi Rtrade,

Sure, feel free.

Cheers,
PB

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