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ES and the Great POMO Rally
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ES and the Great POMO Rally

  #291 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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redratsal View Post
This is the general rule, but when you are in a trending swing it is difficult & risky to buy away from the Vwap. I am not a big boy but I like to reduce risks by trading close to the vwap and set stops below/above LL or HH. This is how I trade:
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here's an example to show you what I mean. you have a buy order spread over the day with a guaranteed vwap execution price.

if you only buy close to the vwap (ellipse 1 and 2), you'll probably end up with a lousy execution. because sooner or later you'll be forced to finish your order well above the vwap. so it's prudent that you buy below vwap (ellipse 2) as well.

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  #292 (permalink)
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Silvester17 View Post
here's an example to show you what I mean. you have a buy order spread over the day with a guaranteed vwap execution price.

if you only buy close to the vwap (ellipse 1 and 2), you'll probably end up with a lousy execution. because sooner or later you'll be forced to finish your order well above the vwap. so it's prudent that you buy below vwap (ellipse 2) as well.

That is because of your DB, but my DB was on the VWap infact I traded and got 34 ticks. Again if we both win it is fine as long as we feel confortable with each others system.

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  #293 (permalink)
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Silvester17 View Post
here's an example to show you what I mean. you have a buy order spread over the day with a guaranteed vwap execution price.

if you only buy close to the vwap (ellipse 1 and 2), you'll probably end up with a lousy execution. because sooner or later you'll be forced to finish your order well above the vwap. so it's prudent that you buy below vwap (ellipse 2) as well.

The VWAP is a great reference point for intra-day trading, but by definition (average) it means that a trade at the VWAP will not be the cheapest or most expensive. When I am looking to initiate a position or swing trade, I already have an area identified as support or resistance, and my trade entry is based on that level, irrespective of the VWAP. When the market rotates to that level, I initiate the trade. The fact that 1300.00 was at an extreme (-2SD) was a positive sign to me, because I knew that there were going to be trapped shorts, that were going to fuel the ensuing rally. It also meant that I would probably have to take less heat than a trade placed at the VWAP.

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  #294 (permalink)
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The market staged a strong reversal day rallying off the daily 20EMA and psychological 1300 level, once again testing the monthly pivot to the upside. As noted yesterday, Monday’s late day sell-off appeared to be EOM settlement related and an apparent bear trap, as the market snapped quickly back, trapping shorts in the process. The Fed today, conducted an even bigger reverse repo than yesterday, sending a clear signal that QE2 is over. In the face of this news, and the recent negative headline and economic news, the market continues to attempt to extend recent gains, demonstrating the bulls strength and resiliency. Tomorrow begins the employment trifecta with the release of the ADP Employment report, followed by Initial Claims on Thursday, and the BLS’s Employment Statistics on Friday. Bearish seasonality continues through Thursday, with the Treasury auction ending tomorrow and the last day of the month on Thursday, so along with the potential for an out-of-line employment statistic, lies the the possibility of another shakeout of weak longs. Friday sees strong bullish seasonality with the first day of the new month and quarter, and the release of the labor statistics.

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ES and the Great POMO Rally-es-06-11-135-min-3_29_2011.jpg   ES and the Great POMO Rally-es-06-11-daily-8_11_2010-3_29_2011.jpg  
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  #295 (permalink)
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Just some Fib Retracements for the same chart.

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  #296 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
Just some Fib Retracements for the same chart.


If Fibonacci levels were that reliable then everybody would be rich. Have you ever wonder what makes a level of support/resistance a reliable point of reference ? I am sure you have but nonetheless i think it's important to keep in mind.

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  #297 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
If Fibonacci levels were that reliable then everybody would be rich. Have you ever wonder what makes a level of support/resistance a reliable point of reference ? I am sure you have but nonetheless i think it's important to keep in mind.

If there is any tool in trading that is truly reliable, please let me know. Perhaps, Fat Tails can create an indicator that will give us the following day's close. I would only have to use it once and then I could pass it on to you.

As a aficionado of MP, I don't have to tell you, that ultimately, we are all trading the same thing - supply and demand; as they evolve over whatever time-frame we are trading. There are a myriad of ways of looking at supply and demand, i.e., Market Profile, Market Delta, candlesticks, etc., and different tools to help us, VWAP, pivots, fib levels, etc.

We all know that self-fulfilling prophecy plays a big role in all of the above, but in the end, does knowing why or why not something works, really matter? The important challenge is to become proficient with the various tools that are available, and then create your own approach and trading style that makes sense to you.

Mastering the ability to interpret price action, along with perfecting one's execution and risk management skills is far more promising than looking for ever more reasons to put on on not put on trades. As traders, all we can do is be patient and wait for the market to show it's structure before putting on a trade, relying on support/resistance from trading ranges and pre-planned price levels as potential targets.

A keen observation of price action allows you to interpret real-time shifts in supply and demand. This is not theory, nor the Thomas theorem at play. It is not dojis and evening star patterns, fib levels, an overbought RSI reading, or the POC. This is simply how the market is trading and the yin and yang of supply and demand in the market. Combine this skill with your subliminal data base of historical market tendencies, and you have created for yourself a reliable (as you are going to get) edge.


Attached Thumbnails
ES and the Great POMO Rally-es-06-11-1-tick-pointandfigure-3_29_2011.jpg   ES and the Great POMO Rally-es-06-11-15-min-3_29_2011.jpg   ES and the Great POMO Rally-es-06-11-30-min-3_29_2011.jpg  

Last edited by tigertrader; March 30th, 2011 at 11:01 AM.
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  #298 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post

If there is any tool in trading that is truly reliable, please let me know. ...

I think the dynamic profile tool in Market Delta and I/RT is by far the most reliable tool to 'objectively' spot where initiative buying/selling is taking place and where you would want to make business but unfortunately it is not available in Ninja.

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  #299 (permalink)
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Small caps continue to make new highs and are threatening to take out ‘07 pre-crash highs, while the broader market languished in a 5 point range / inside day. Going into the last day of the month a bit overextended, I was expecting to see a better effort by the market to partially fill the upside gap left by Wednesday’s opening, but would not be surprised to see that expected sell-off in tonight’s session. Tomorrow is of course, the BLS’s Employment Statistics release and the strong bullish seasonality associated with the report and the first day of the new month and quarter. The market has already rallied into the report, so both a positive or negative number could cause an early sell-off and a potential bear trap. However, I would look for the bulls to step up and support their position, in any event.

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ES and the Great POMO Rally-tf-06-11-daily-3_31_2010-4_1_2011.jpg   ES and the Great POMO Rally-es-06-11-daily-3_31_2010-4_1_2011.jpg  

Last edited by tigertrader; April 1st, 2011 at 08:14 AM.
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  #300 (permalink)
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Looking to book profits @1337.00 level, with a possible small flip if divergences are present.

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