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ES and the Great POMO Rally
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ES and the Great POMO Rally

  #21 (permalink)
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I would say just be careful in trying to find things to validate your beliefs on how the market should act.... While optimism is high right now, and i think the chances of a pullback are high because of it, i still don't think we will have another recession. There are too many things holding it back.
There will always be fraud, and there will always be reasons for people to be bearish/bullish on the economy.

I knew someone that was shorting the market and calling tops for almost 2 years before the crash... He got wiped out. He was right about how people where using their houses as ATM machines, tapping in their home equity to buy junk, but he got run over, and he no longer trades. You don't want to end up like him.

I also think its funny how poeple use technical analysis to call the top right now, such as drawing megaphone patterns, or wedges, but someone else just recently pointed out that the famous 50MA crossed over the 200 MA to the upside, signaling to go long for a new bull market. Just shows you how everything is subjective.

I still not a fan of these chart patterns, i don't think they give you any meaningful edge at all, but thats a separate topic.

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  #22 (permalink)
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Looks good. How did you act on these predictions? (did you capitalize on them, and how so)

Mike

Not so much on the equity side because my es time frames are relatively short ; mostly intra-day swing trades. However, it is rare that I don't have a bond position on, whether it's a yield curve play, or an outright position, or an options position.. I did catch some nice pieces of the bond move. To be quite honest , I really don't know what treasuries are going to do, after the FOMC meeting. I'll probably be flat and trade the reaction.

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  #23 (permalink)
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Michael.H View Post
I would say just be careful in trying to find things to validate your beliefs on how the market should act.... While optimism is high right now, and i think the chances of a pullback are high because of it, i still don't think we will have another recession. There are too many things holding it back.
There will always be fraud, and there will always be reasons for people to be bearish/bullish on the economy.

I knew someone that was shorting the market and calling tops for almost 2 years before the crash... He got wiped out. He was right about how people where using their houses as ATM machines, tapping in their home equity to buy junk, but he got run over, and he no longer trades. You don't want to end up like him.

I also think its funny how poeple use technical analysis to call the top right now, such as drawing megaphone patterns, or wedges, but someone else just recently pointed out that the famous 50MA crossed over the 200 MA to the upside, signaling to go long for a new bull market. Just shows you how everything is subjective.

I still not a fan of these chart patterns, i don't think they give you any meaningful edge at all, but thats a separate topic.

I hear you Mike. My day-to-day trading is not predicated on my long term or macro perspective of the markets. My intra-day decisions are based solely on price action. If I do initiate a long term or position trade that is based on technical/fundamental analysis, it will usually be an options play and I will not risk more than 5-10% of my capital. I find it very difficult, not have an opinion about the market and it's future direction. I do have the ability to be objective when I am trading intra-day, but I also feel the need to put my money where my mouth is every now and then.

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  #24 (permalink)
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Michael.H View Post
I would say just be careful in trying to find things to validate your beliefs on how the market should act.... While optimism is high right now, and i think the chances of a pullback are high because of it, i still don't think we will have another recession. There are too many things holding it back.
There will always be fraud, and there will always be reasons for people to be bearish/bullish on the economy.

I knew someone that was shorting the market and calling tops for almost 2 years before the crash... He got wiped out. He was right about how people where using their houses as ATM machines, tapping in their home equity to buy junk, but he got run over, and he no longer trades. You don't want to end up like him.

I also think its funny how poeple use technical analysis to call the top right now, such as drawing megaphone patterns, or wedges, but someone else just recently pointed out that the famous 50MA crossed over the 200 MA to the upside, signaling to go long for a new bull market. Just shows you how everything is subjective.

I still not a fan of these chart patterns, i don't think they give you any meaningful edge at all, but thats a separate topic.

Yes, never take trades based on beliefs alone. You'll most likely be wrong. The rising wedge drawings were merely a comparison to the very similar pattern of this past April. This rally can continue on for a long time as long as Bernanke keeps propping everything up.

As for chart patterns, I never use them for my intraday trading either. You can get nailed real easily. I just like to look at the big picture to stay on the path of least resistance hence this topic of discussion.

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  #25 (permalink)
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Banana Ben got his wish. The consequences however will at some point, be devastating for the U.S. It appears that he is in an above the law status now. When this is all said and done, he'll make "Easy Al' look like a walk in the park...

ES closed at it's highs which was also the top of it's trend line. Today's price action in RTH was a classic gap up sideways chop fest. Hopefully no one got annihilated today. I promise better days are to come.

Cheers!

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  #26 (permalink)
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Private Banker View Post
Banana Ben got his wish. The consequences however will at some point, be devastating for the U.S. It appears that he is in an above the law status now. When this is all said and done, he'll make "Easy Al' look like a walk in the park...

ES closed at it's highs which was also the top of it's trend line. Today's price action in RTH was a classic gap up sideways chop fest. Hopefully no one got annihilated today. I promise better days are to come.

Cheers!

I shut down early and went out for margarita's...drank the entire pitcher by myself. The only one who got rich toady was my clearing house.

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  #27 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
I shut down early and went out for margarita's...drank the entire pitcher by myself. The only one who got rich toady was my clearing house.

Lol! Probably not a bad idea. Cheers!

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  #28 (permalink)
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EuroZone crisis waiting in the wings

Irish Bond Spreads are getting out of hand. Will this crash the equities markets?

The Flash In The East in [Market-Ticker]

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  #29 (permalink)
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POMO magic in action today (November 10)

Wash and rinse day
A Classic Stop And Squeeze: The Fed-PD-Fed Free Money Arbitrage | zero hedge

Schedule of forthcoming POMO days:
POMO Schedule Announced: $105 Billion In 18 Monetizations Through December 9 | zero hedge



Pining for Ninjatrader 3.5, does anyone know where I can get a copy?

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Zondor View Post

Lol! "Welcome to the show that never ends"... What a day. I just trade my intra-day signals which had me short in the morning and bought the divergence around 11am. You know the usual, if the market sells off, count it going right back up to where it was. Big picture ES lower trend line still providing support. I guess we can thank Bernanke once again.

Cheers,

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ES and the Great POMO Rally-wow.jpg   ES and the Great POMO Rally-2010-11-10-tos_charts.jpg  
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