ES and the Great POMO Rally - Emini Index Futures Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


ES and the Great POMO Rally
Updated: Views / Replies:92,405 / 926
Created: by Private Banker Attachments:620

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 620  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

ES and the Great POMO Rally

  #271 (permalink)
Elite Member
La Jolla, CA
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker/Data: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Favorite Futures: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,759 received


Fat Tails View Post
Afterwards the price action always looks meaningful. But were you able to predict, that the VWAP would win against the pivot range?

What I was referring to is more from a portfolio management perspective of establishing a short bias (or adding to one) with your trades achieving VWAP.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
  #272 (permalink)
Elite Member
Quebec
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker/Data: Stage 5 trading/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: ES, NQ, YM
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,697 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 3,041 given, 4,496 received


Private Banker View Post
One thing I noticed in all the Equity indices today was that price was being sold into every time it touched VWAP. That usually is a hint that someone is establishing a short bias with the exception of this morning's initial move. If I were looking to add to my short position today, I would have been selling the VWAP every time.
...

That's a logical observation but at what point did you realise that ? firts, second or third time it occured ?

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:
 
  #273 (permalink)
Elite Member
La Jolla, CA
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker/Data: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Favorite Futures: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,759 received



trendisyourfriend View Post
That's a logical observation but at what point did you realise that ? firts, second or third time it occured ?

Well, let me first say that I wasn't trading ES today but was trading CL. But I noticed this morning that equities hit the top of it's range and did not break out. At around 11AM EST +/-, I noticed that there were signs of selling taking place at the VWAP. Sold off slightly came right back up and got sold into again. This continued several more times before finally falling through the bottom of the day's range.

This is by no means a guarantee for a sell off or that many are building a short bias. It's just something that I would do if I were adding to my short position. I'm still swing short but at a reduced amount. I would like to see more selling before I start adding to my position.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
  #274 (permalink)
Elite Member
Quebec
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker/Data: Stage 5 trading/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: ES, NQ, YM
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,697 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 3,041 given, 4,496 received


Fat Tails View Post
Afterwards the price action always looks meaningful. But were you able to predict, that the VWAP would win against the pivot range?

Typically (and this is a classical Market Profile setup) when there is range extention (at least 4 ticks above/below the initial balance) and at 1:00pm EST, price opens within 1 point from the POC and does not go in the oposite direction of range extention then your best bet is to go in the same direction as range extention after 1 pm. The 1min opening range has acted as an area of resistance along with the open of the day session (RTH).

It's also interesting to note where price went (Thursday's POC at 1302).
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:
 
  #275 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,314 given, 31,870 received


trendisyourfriend View Post
Typically (and this is a classical Market Profile setup) when there is range extention (at least 4 ticks above/below the initial balance) and at 1:00pm EST, price opens within 1 point from the POC and does not go in the oposite direction of range extention then your best bet is to go in the same direction as range extention after 1 pm. The 1min opening range has acted as an area of resistance along with the open of the day session (RTH).

It's also interesting to note where price went (Thursday's POC at 1302).
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Yes it's one of the 80-20 rules, I believe. It also doesn't hurt that today is T+3, prior to Q1 settlement, and it was a big up month.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
  #276 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,314 given, 31,870 received


Private Banker View Post
What I was referring to is more from a portfolio management perspective of establishing a short bias (or adding to one) with your trades achieving VWAP.


Don't you think it would be wiser to or add to your shorts @ +2SD-3SD, and add to your longs @ -2SD-3SD, especially on a day when there is neither a negative nor positive slope to the VWAP line?

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
  #277 (permalink)
Elite Member
La Jolla, CA
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker/Data: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Favorite Futures: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,759 received


tigertrader View Post

Don't you think it would be wiser to or add to your shorts @ +2SD-3SD, and add to your longs @ -2SD-3SD, especially on a day when there is neither a negative nor positive slope to the VWAP line?

Yes, that's definitely possible. When I managed money, whenever we were establishing positions or adding, it was generally around the VWAP (regardless of the slope) which is why I always watch it. I know a lot of big orders are likely to be taking place there.

Now that I only manage my own money, using the VWAP isn't the only way I would look to add to or establish a position however it can certainly be an effective way to do so.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
  #278 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,314 given, 31,870 received


Private Banker View Post
Yes, that's definitely possible. When I managed money, whenever we were establishing positions or adding, it was generally around the VWAP (regardless of the slope) which is why I always watch it. I know a lot of big orders are likely to be taking place there.

Now that I only manage my own money, using the VWAP isn't the only way I would look to add to or establish a position however it can certainly be an effective way to do so.

I'm sorry, but I'm missing the logic behind your statements. The VWAP is simply the average price of a security traded over a period of time. It is essentially a benchmark for investors that want to be passive in their execution, and are seeking the average price based on volume, i.e., a guaranteed VWAP execution. The implementation of the VWAP was in response to the decimalization of the market and the proliferation of algorithmic trading that resulted from this change, and became popular as a tool to reduce transaction costs and the impact of large institutional orders on the market.

As an active trader/ investor, I don't understand on how the VWAP would offer you any advantages in the timing and placement of you entries or you adds, from a position trading/portfolio management perspective. On the contrary, I would be looking to execute my trades as far away from the VWAP as possible, i.e. plus or minus 3 standard deviations away, or S3/R3.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
  #279 (permalink)
Elite Member
La Jolla, CA
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker/Data: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Favorite Futures: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,759 received


tigertrader View Post
I'm sorry, but I'm missing the logic behind your statements. The VWAP is simply the average price of a security traded over a period of time. It is essentially a benchmark for investors that want to be passive in their execution, and are seeking the average price based on volume, i.e., a guaranteed VWAP execution. The implementation of the VWAP was in response to the decimalization of the market and the proliferation of algorithmic trading that resulted from this change, and became popular as a tool to reduce transaction costs and the impact of large institutional orders on the market.

From the perspective of an active trader/ investor, I don't understand on how the VWAP would offer you any advantages in the timing and placement of you entries or you adds. On the contrary, I would be looking to execute my trades as far awy from the VWAP as possible, i.e. plus or minus 3 standard deviations away, or S3/R3.

Exactly, I wasn't speaking from the perspective of an active trader/investor. I was speaking from the perspective of a fund manager who is looking to put capital to work. From an active retail investor perspective, I can definitely see your point.

Let me explain in more detail what I was referencing. Let's say your fund is looking to become more short bias or put additional capital to work, you're likely to place those orders near VWAP. You aren't concerned with the intraday moves as much as you are with the overall big picture. Your trading criteria is derived from a daily/weekly chart interval with a long(er) term objective. The intraday standard deviations aren't as important when you're working with bigger picture standard deviations that are more annual based and asset class based. You aren't going all in on one trade but you're gradually getting your orders in near the VWAP.

So, to circle back from what I originally said in observing price being sold at VWAP several times today. My thought is there could be some big orders being placed at those levels by large institutions. It's just a thought of course and who knows what will happen for sure.

Cheers,
PB

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
  #280 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,314 given, 31,870 received



Private Banker View Post
Exactly, I wasn't speaking from the perspective of an active trader/investor. I was speaking from the perspective of a fund manager who is looking to put capital to work. From an active retail investor perspective, I can definitely see your point.

Let me explain in more detail what I was referencing. Let's say your fund is looking to become more short bias or put additional capital to work, you're likely to place those orders near VWAP. You aren't concerned with the intraday moves as much as you are with the overall big picture. Your trading criteria is derived from a daily/weekly chart interval with a long(er) term objective. The intraday standard deviations aren't as important when you're working with bigger picture standard deviations that are more annual based and asset class based. You aren't going all in on one trade but you're gradually getting your orders in near the VWAP.

So, to circle back from what I originally said in observing price being sold at VWAP several times today. My thought is there could be some big orders being placed at those levels by large institutions. It's just a thought of course and who knows what will happen for sure.

Cheers,
PB

My point exactly -you're not CalPERS, you're not managing a gazillion dollars, or putting on the kind of size that has to be sliced and diced and insured a "fair" fill basis the average price. As an individual trader (trading your own capital) you want to buy as low as possible, and sell as high as possible - not the average price of the two extremes.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tigertrader for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > > ES and the Great POMO Rally

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Great frozen pizza Tundi Off-Topic 6 June 10th, 2011 11:47 PM
FED'S SCHEDULE OF UPCOMING $32B IN POMO'S tigertrader Traders Hideout 1 October 13th, 2010 06:58 PM
A great trader to learn from. GoldStandard Traders Hideout 15 February 12th, 2010 12:45 PM
NATURE, OUR GREAT MENTOR. joyginy Psychology and Money Management 12 January 6th, 2010 01:34 PM
ES doing a great job of honoring BBs and TLs Saroj Emini Index Futures Trading 6 July 29th, 2009 03:10 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:44 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-13 in 0.15 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.160.245.121