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ES and the Great POMO Rally
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ES and the Great POMO Rally

  #251 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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it sure looks to me that we're very close to a major move. if the market is showing weakness tomorrow, I might buy some puts. not sure yet if spx or iwm puts. depends how expensive they are.

this is the moment for me to do some gambling. I'm fully aware that we also could see new highs, but I think it's worth the risk.

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  #252 (permalink)
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Silvester17 View Post
it sure looks to me that we're very close to a major move. if the market is showing weakness tomorrow, I might buy some puts. not sure yet if spx or iwm puts. depends how expensive they are.

this is the moment for me to do some gambling. I'm fully aware that we also could see new highs, but I think it's worth the risk.

If you want to get short, why would you get short the strongest index (RUT), and not the weakest (COMP)?


Last edited by tigertrader; March 24th, 2011 at 11:03 PM.
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  #253 (permalink)
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Bill Gross article, which echoes Charles Hugh Smith's comments below. The article highlighted in Smith's quote is a must read!

PIMCO | Investment Outlook - Two-Bits, Four-Bits, Six-Bits, a Dollar


>>As I noted in Sorry, Fed and People's Bank of China: You Can't Have It Both Ways (March 15, 2011), you can't pump up money supply and credit to goose "risk trades" in stocks and commodities without inflating asset bubbles and triggering runaway input-costs, i.e. inflation that destroys profit margins and impoverishes stagnant-wage households.

But if the Fed takes its hands off the game controller and allows the dollar to rise, then equities crash anyway.

In other words, the dollar is at a point where either path leads to stocks crashing. Go ahead and destroy the dollar, and the rising-input-costs monster will gut stocks and impoverish households. Back off and let the dollar rise, and the risk trades (equities and commodities) will plummet.


Take your pick: the result is the same.<<

QE2 is scheduled to end June 30, 2011!

If the Fed’s large scale asset purchase (LSAP) program, popularly known as QE, is to continue uninterrupted, it will need to be announced in the April 27, 2011 FOMC statement. As an aside, that announcement will be released at 12:30 pm instead of 2:15 pm, as the Fed is taking the unprecedented step of initiating press briefings post-announcement four times per year. April 27 will be the first of these.


Last edited by tigertrader; March 25th, 2011 at 10:03 AM.
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  #254 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
If you want to get short, why would you get short the strongest index (RUT), and not the weakest (COMP)?

actually today COMP was the strongest and RUT the weakest. and even so after market. but I do agree the last few days the COMP was lagging behind the others.

in the end I don't think it matters. depends also how the options are priced.

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  #255 (permalink)
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Silvester17 View Post
actually today COMP was the strongest and RUT the weakest. and even so after market. but I do agree the last few days the COMP was lagging behind the others.

in the end I don't think it matters. depends also how the options are priced.

Actually, "in-the-end" is exactly where it does matter... Apparently you're not familiar with the concept relative strength, because it's not only conventional wisdom, but common sense, that dictates you want to buy the strongest instrument, and sell the weakest instrument, i.e., if you want to have the highest probability of success...in the end.

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  #256 (permalink)
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Actually, "in-the-end" is exactly where it does matter... Apparently you're not familiar with the concept relative strength, because it's not only conventional wisdom, but common sense, that dictates you want to buy the strongest instrument, and sell the weakest instrument, i.e., if you want to have the highest probability of success...in the end.

as I said before, this is strictly gambling. but if we should get an explosive down move, my first choice is still RUT. it's normally more volatile than the others.

so you're right, I'm not looking to sell the weakest. I'm looking to sell the most volatile one. but I respect and understand what you're saying.

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ES and the Great POMO Rally-2011-03-25_0002.png   ES and the Great POMO Rally-2011-03-25_0009.png  

Last edited by Silvester17; March 25th, 2011 at 07:50 AM.
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  #257 (permalink)
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Silvester17 View Post
as I said before, this is strictly gambling. but if we should get an explosive down move, my first choice is still RUT. it's normally more volatile than the others.

so you're right, I'm not looking to sell the weakest. I'm looking to sell the most volatile one. but I respect and understand what you're saying.

You may be right, in the end. The RUT led the way up, and it just might lead on the way down.

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  #258 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
Actually, "in-the-end" is exactly where it does matter... Apparently you're not familiar with the concept relative strength, because it's not only conventional wisdom, but common sense, that dictates you want to buy the strongest instrument, and sell the weakest instrument, i.e., if you want to have the highest probability of success...in the end.

would like to add that in general I believe your statement is absolutely correct. here's an example: an investor has 2 positions, one he has a profit and the other one he is losing money. now he has to sell one position. I bet most retailers wold sell the one where they have a profit, in hope the losing position would turn around. and imo this is the wrong approach. here I probably would sell the weak one first.

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  #259 (permalink)
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Friday’s narrow range day was marked on the lower end by the early morning gap fill at 1305.25 and on the upper end by the monthly pivot, day-session-only R2, and weekly R2, from 1314.55 to 1315.75. The market has accepted value at at higher levels, and seems to be preparing for an all out assault on the highs, but may chop around for the next few trading sessions between 1300 and 1320 as we approach the bearish seasonality associated with the Treasury auction on Monday - Wednesday and the last trading day of the month next Thursday.

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ES and the Great POMO Rally-es-06-11-30-min-3_25_2011-mp.jpg   ES and the Great POMO Rally-es-06-11-135-min-3_25_2011.jpg   ES and the Great POMO Rally-es-06-11-30-min-3_25_2011.jpg   ES and the Great POMO Rally-es-06-11-daily-11_8_2010-3_25_2011.jpg   ES and the Great POMO Rally-es-06-11-weekly-week-8_2008-week-12_2011.jpg  
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Private Banker View Post

The last few days I've been building a core short ES position cycling some gains and selling into any retracements. I'm currently short a fairly sizeable position and will look to build upon that provided we continue to see selling pressure. Obviously, there are a variety of reasons why the market is rolling over but it was a long time coming. It just needed a catalyst to get the ball rolling.

PB, are you still holding on to your short position or had you unwound your position?

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