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Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
Market is still in trouble obviously. ES got held at the 61.8% level from the same anchor of 1303.75 yesterday and last night. As of now, we have a low of 1251 from yesterday and a low today of 1255.50. If we break below both of those, I'm looking for 1238.75's. We also had an extremely low NYSE Tick print of -1391. Look out below!
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
Wow! That's a nice spike up! It's alive! There's a nice trend line I've been watching in play on the ES. Market has been held by it every time so far. It's been an amazing run so far!
Equities were already oversold, and the result was a 30 point rally off last night's lows. Headline risk from Japan includes continued reactor deterioration . Resistance is the RTH R1 with the potential for a reversal at 1274 basis the 500MA(15M).
Bill Duryea of the Institute discussed the current state of the rally. Bill presented a technical drill down of the long term trend, the most recent leg of the rally off the July 2010 low and the probability of the market pulling back to its 200 day price average before going on to rally above the current Feb high.
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
Thanks for that, that was very interesting and very well explained. Bill makes some great cases there and I greatly respect his knowledge. Personally, I make it a point to try to avoid making market predictions. I only trade what I see on the charts which has kept me out of trouble. If the ES ran all the way down to the 200 day MA, I'd be happy with that. In fact, I'd ecstatic and probably reduce some of my position around that point any way in the event of a major bounce there.
All the market references I've made here are from a swing trade perspective which can last weeks or even months. So, if the market pulled all the way back to the 200 MA, that would be a great move as I'm still in the process of building my position and would begin to scale out around those levels for some very nice gains.
May i ask you as a swing or longer term trader, what time of the day do you perfer to manage your trade ? Is it always at the end of the day around 4:00pm EST or at the Globex open ? As a medium/long term trader, one of the thing i'd find difficult to deal with are situations where my short term bias would be to the downside while the possibility of one or more quick pops to the upside would still be present. During the regular session (RTH) you can react to this possibility but if i would manage my trade at a fixed time every day i would be afraid to fall into a bad position. That's why i am interested to know at what time of the day do you evaluate your position ? Is it a variable time or a fixed time ?
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
Great question. It's a variable time based more on particular price levels. But when building a position, I actually try to trade it RTH, selling retracements (for a short) and buying retracements (for a long) and taking profit on small amounts to build in some profit/cushion. I usually do this for a few days until I feel I'm holding a good core position at that point. It also depends on the market you're trading of course. But that's what I typically do to get the ball rolling. I try to add or reduce during RTH but if I see price hit a target area, I'll take advantage of that during ETH for sure.
