ES and the Great POMO Rally - Emini Index Futures Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


ES and the Great POMO Rally
Updated: Views / Replies:92,365 / 926
Created: by Private Banker Attachments:620

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 620  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

ES and the Great POMO Rally

  #171 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,314 given, 31,870 received


MXASJ View Post
Tiger you are not playing delta neutral/vol, right? So the puts are independent bets or are they a hedge?

It is not a trick question. I've been buying/writing stuff as well but the distinction between directional play and hedge has become blurred. That is not necessarily a good thing for me as I've been taught not to make money on hedges.


Purely intended as a directional play. I've been putting on these kinds of positions in the beans and bonds for 30 years. Most of the time they don't work, for reasons you are well aware of, BUT when they do work, they work big. I like being in the market (in this manner), because it's the best way to catch tail moves. Contrary, to what a lot of traders believe, good things can happen when you are in the market.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
  #172 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Columbus, OH
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT 8, TOS
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Silvester17's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,332 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 4,579 given, 10,313 received

tigertrader,

first thank you very much for posting. needless to say that most here can't keep up with your knowledge.

btw I really like your buying puts strategy. I'm doing this sometimes too (not saying I'm on your level). looking for low premiums, and if you're lucky and volatility increases, you can make money even if the underlying doesn't move much. and if it moves, it's like a home run. but for me it's strictly gambling, because there will be more losers. but doesn't have anything to do with my view of the market.

Reply With Quote
 
  #173 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,314 given, 31,870 received



Silvester17 View Post
tigertrader,

first thank you very much for posting. needless to say that most here can't keep up with your knowledge.

btw I really like your buying puts strategy. I'm doing this sometimes too (not saying I'm on your level). looking for low premiums, and if you're lucky and volatility increases, you can make money even if the underlying doesn't move much. and if it moves, it's like a home run. but for me it's strictly gambling, because there will be more losers. but doesn't have anything to do with my view of the market.


It's not gambling it's trading, albeit it is speculative in nature. And it's probably counterintuitive to most people because they are a lot happier when they are right frequently. But being right frequently is not necessarily consistent with long term success. The percentage of winning trades in any given sample, does not determine the samples profitability, it is
the dollar change in the sample.. A few big winning trades will often have a much greater impact on the samples performance than the percentage of winners in the sample.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
  #174 (permalink)
Senior Member
Fullerton, CA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Tundi's Avatar
 
Posts: 201 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 33 given, 98 received


tigertrader View Post
It's not gambling it's trading, albeit it is speculative in nature. And it's probably counterintuitive to most people because they are a lot happier when they are right frequently. But being right frequently is not necessarily consistent with long term success. The percentage of winning trades in any given sample, does not determine the samples profitability, it is the dollar change in the sample.. A few big winning trades will often have a much greater impact on the samples performance than the percentage of winners in the sample.

+1

Reply With Quote
 
  #175 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,314 given, 31,870 received

This morning’s Employment Situation (unemployment rate dips to 8.9%) was again better than forecasted looking at the household survey, and slightly below expectations from the payrolls number (January and December revised for the better). However, after the weak shorts were driven out yesterday, and undoubtedly some new longs were trapped, ES futures made a lower high and sold off 23.25 points from the RTH - R1 @1334.5 and closed in the lower half of the days trading range. The fact that the market failed to rally on a positive number and bullish seasonality, along with CL continuing it’s climb above 100$ a barrel, indicates that ES has made the transition from a buy-the-breaks mode to a sell-the-rallies mode. This also leads me to believe that we will take out the bottom trendline of the consolidating wedge pattern early next week.

Attached Thumbnails
ES and the Great POMO Rally-es-03-11-135-min-3_4_2011.jpg  
Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
  #176 (permalink)
Elite Member
La Jolla, CA
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker/Data: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Favorite Futures: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,759 received

This was a very interesting week. The rally in equities is definitely being tested. From a big picture perspective, we've been range bound but as TigerTrader mentioned, there is some serious reversals taking place, trapping traders on both ends. I was surprised to find that the lowest extreme tick level was - 1201 and +1177. I would think if and when we see serious capitulation, we will see some really low Ticks printing. That will be interesting to watch for. I've wound out of most of my longs at this point with only a few contracts remaining anticipating the potential of a true trend change to the short side.

Like I said before, what we are seeing in today's markets are extraordinary. The USD appears to really be losing it's reserve status as it continues to crash. US Treasuries even though have slightly bounced, are still looking relatively weak and could continue to fall in turn spiking interest rates. Commodities and precious metals continue to shoot higher. Meanwhile, the MSM particularly CNBS continues to try and convince the "Joe Investor" to continue buying equities with their masterful spin doctors/talking heads that know nothing about the markets or economy.

I will say that it's nice to see some volatility returning to equities from an intra-day trading perspective. These are the times when you can make a lot of money provided you know what you're doing. But as always, stick to your trading plan for those who are still finding their bearings in trading and be careful!

Cheers,
PB

Attached Thumbnails
ES and the Great POMO Rally-2011-03-04-es.jpg   ES and the Great POMO Rally-2011-03-04-dx.jpg   ES and the Great POMO Rally-2011-03-04-gc.jpg   ES and the Great POMO Rally-2011-03-04-si.jpg   ES and the Great POMO Rally-2011-03-04-cl.jpg   ES and the Great POMO Rally-2011-03-04-rb.jpg   ES and the Great POMO Rally-2011-03-04-zb.jpg   ES and the Great POMO Rally-2011-03-04-nyse-tick.jpg  

Last edited by Private Banker; March 4th, 2011 at 10:38 PM. Reason: Typo
Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
  #177 (permalink)
Elite Member
CA
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: Marketdelta and Ninja
Broker/Data: Velocity
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
Posts: 670 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 64 given, 521 received


tigertrader View Post
Of course, you conveniently neglected to mention that I was spot on about the market rallying from 1115 to 1250 and just about everything else in that post - very nice curve fitting. Granted that's not the point, but ironically...you are totally missing my point...see my post #163 on this thread.

BTW: I'm going to buy more puts, post unemployment volatility drain - bumping my position up to 5% of my risk capital, in spite of the fact you haven't told "us guys" it's O.K. to go short.





I didn't see your post about that rally.
How far do you buy your puts? Are they vertical spreads? naked positions?

Reply With Quote
 
  #178 (permalink)
Elite Member
australia
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: -
 
Posts: 300 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 123 given, 137 received


tigertrader View Post
Purely intended as a directional play. I've been putting on these kinds of positions in the beans and bonds for 30 years. Most of the time they don't work, for reasons you are well aware of, BUT when they do work, they work big. I like being in the market (in this manner), because it's the best way to catch tail moves. Contrary, to what a lot of traders believe, good things can happen when you are in the market.


tigertrader View Post
It's not gambling it's trading, albeit it is speculative in nature. And it's probably counterintuitive to most people because they are a lot happier when they are right frequently. But being right frequently is not necessarily consistent with long term success. The percentage of winning trades in any given sample, does not determine the samples profitability, it is
the dollar change in the sample.. A few big winning trades will often have a much greater impact on the samples performance than the percentage of winners in the sample.

tigertrader, based on my limited experience, I would totally agree with what you had stated. 90% of my gains over the years come from only 5% of the trades I made.

But strange enough, even though I see these results I often act to maximize my winning probability.

My question is is this the only method you use and had they work for you consistently?

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to jonc for this post:
 
  #179 (permalink)
Elite Member
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: ATC/TT, AMP/Zen-Fire, AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: TF
 
bluemele's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,547 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 3,806 given, 2,826 received

This is a great thread, thanks for sharing all of you.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to bluemele for this post:
 
  #180 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,314 given, 31,870 received



Michael.H View Post
I didn't see your post about that rally.
How far do you buy your puts? Are they vertical spreads? naked positions?

I buy out of the money premium, far enough out (cheap enough) that I can buy size, but close enough in, that there is a high probability, it could get in the money. I am in no way a sophisticated options trader. In fact, when I was on the floor, I would walk into the bean options or bond options pit, tell a local what I was trying to accomplish, and he would tell me which strike would afford me the highest probability of success. As a way of saying thanks for the advice, I would give up the edge to him when I put my position on. Obviously, I don't have that luxury now so I make an educated guess.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > > ES and the Great POMO Rally

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Linda Bradford Raschke: Reading The Tape

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

January

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Great frozen pizza Tundi Off-Topic 6 June 10th, 2011 11:47 PM
FED'S SCHEDULE OF UPCOMING $32B IN POMO'S tigertrader Traders Hideout 1 October 13th, 2010 06:58 PM
A great trader to learn from. GoldStandard Traders Hideout 15 February 12th, 2010 12:45 PM
NATURE, OUR GREAT MENTOR. joyginy Psychology and Money Management 12 January 6th, 2010 01:34 PM
ES doing a great job of honoring BBs and TLs Saroj Emini Index Futures Trading 6 July 29th, 2009 03:10 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:59 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-12 in 0.15 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.221.93.187