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ES and the Great POMO Rally
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ES and the Great POMO Rally

  #161 (permalink)
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Well, what another interesting day. This looks like a potential reversal taking place in equities with another day of continuous selling. It appears equity investors might finally be realizing just how wrong "The Bernank" is after all.

What we are witnessing in today's markets will be discussed for years and years to come as one of the great blunders in central planning. The million dollar question is, how much longer can Bernanke take the heat? He's been proven time and time again wrong on all of his beliefs. How much more can not just the US but the world take from him? I can't wait to watch this all unfold.

Today we saw the USD make a new low of 76.765 before a small bounce. Meanwhile, precious metals and other commodities ripped way higher. All of this in the face of Bernanke's statement of subdued inflation? Come on!

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ES and the Great POMO Rally-es-reversal.jpg   ES and the Great POMO Rally-2011-03-01-gc.jpg   ES and the Great POMO Rally-2011-03-01-si.jpg   ES and the Great POMO Rally-2011-03-01-usd.jpg   ES and the Great POMO Rally-corn.jpg  
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  #162 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
1313.00 (ESH) is a critical area....must hold for the bulls to remain in control, otherwise it's lights out!

And indeed, it did! Crazy day all around!

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  #163 (permalink)
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Correlations


All times on this chart are Pacific. CL panel 1, YM panel 2, ZN panel 3.

At around 8AM it became apparent that oil was seriously going up, and the Dow started down.

At around 9AM oil stopped going up, Dow retraced up, and ZN began a move down.

Plenty of good trades here.

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  #164 (permalink)
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This market is amazing, it just keep going up.

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  #165 (permalink)
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jonc View Post
This market is amazing, it just keep going up.

Are you long?



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  #166 (permalink)
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Zondor View Post
All times on this chart are Pacific. CL panel 1, YM panel 2, ZN panel 3.

At around 8AM it became apparent that oil was seriously going up, and the Dow started down.

At around 9AM oil stopped going up, Dow retraced up, and ZN began a move down.

Plenty of good trades here.

Correlations come and go. Don't waste too much time on that.

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  #167 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
I made these predictions on Investor Hub at the end of last year. I still think my SPX prognostication will come to fruition.


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tigertrader
Share Thursday, December 31, 2009 11:56:34 AM Re: LongCYRX post# 4930

Post # of 7249


End of the Year, End of the Decade

In keeping with the time honored tradition, I offer these year-end predictions, for discussion...

Looking at the 15 year chart of the SPX, one can't ignore the massive double top, with the first top formed in March 2000@1553, and the second top, formed in October 2007@1576. We are STILL firmly entrenched in a secular bear market that began with the formation of the first top in 2000, and could conceivably last for up to 5 more years. My prediction is the that the current bear market rally in the SPX will top out in 2010 around the 1250 area. The stronger the economic numbers released, the sooner the top. Conversely, the weaker the economic numbers, the later the top. Whatever the time frame, the market will take out the March 2009 lows.

Cryoport will successfully commercialize their product,and capture market share, although the road to profitability, will be an arduous one. The stock price will move higher, but will not follow the linear path, that everybody hopes for. This will be the case,of course, until the shit hits the fan again.

Dominant themes will be emerging markets, gold, and basic materials & commodities.

Dollar will rally, and then collapse. Bonds will make new lows, yield curve will steepen, and the banks will reap the benefits.

Dominant trends in VC/Private Equity will be Clean/Green Tech and Cloud Technology.

Bears will win the Super Bowl in 2010, Lovie Smith will be the next Mayor of Chicago, and the Cubs will win the World Series 4-0.

I'm still waiting to see who else is still short. I give tigertrader credit for sticking his neck out. But you have to remember, what he said was nothing but a "prediction". You won't be profitable trading that.
I hope you guys are understanding how the markets work now, and how to trade it. Stop listening to the news.

There will always be something wrong in our economy that we need to fix.
The last bull market, all they talked about was social security and how its gonna bankrupt our economy. Well, we managed to do that in 1 year, and markets are still going up. I really hope nobody was short during that whole time.

Watch volume, watch how price responds to volume. Check under the hood of the market( market leading stocks like appl, google.. etc and how they react). Watch the different sectors. yes its important, and they all matter.

When you realize that the markets are more complex and diverse than a bunch of moving averages crossing each other with oscillators, then trading is no longer impossible. Everything should be examined in context.

When the markets changes trends and goes down, i will be here telling you guys to go short, while everybody will probably buy because stocks are just too cheap....lol Can't tell you how many times i've heard that when the markets were crashing.

I've mentioned in another post that i will be reducing my time in this forum, but i still do check in once in a while, and this thread is sort of a personal hobby of mine. I like watching how people react( mostly in frustration if you read this thread, since the market is not agreeing with their personal opinions, which is why most lose money).
Keep up the posts.


Last edited by Michael.H; March 3rd, 2011 at 11:49 PM.
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  #168 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Are you long?



Mike

No Mike, not the indices

But I'm long precious metal and energy stocks.

I do intend to get in on the indices if there is a substantial correction. It seems never to come.

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  #169 (permalink)
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Michael.H View Post
I'm still waiting to see who else is still short. I give tigertrader credit for sticking his neck out. But you have to remember, what he said was nothing but a "prediction". You won't be profitable trading that.
I hope you guys are understanding how the markets work now, and how to trade it. Stop listening to the news.

There will always be something wrong in our economy that we need to fix.
The last bull market, all they talked about was social security and how its gonna bankrupt our economy. Well, we managed to do that in 1 year, and markets are still going up. I really hope nobody was short during that whole time.

Watch volume, watch how price responds to volume. Check under the hood of the market( market leading stocks like appl, google.. etc and how they react). Watch the different sectors. yes its important, and they all matter.

When you realize that the markets are more complex and diverse than a bunch of moving averages crossing each other with oscillators, then trading is no longer impossible. Everything should be examined in context.

When the markets changes trends and goes down, i will be here telling you guys to go short, while everybody will probably buy because stocks are just too cheap....lol Can't tell you how many times i've heard that when the markets were crashing.

I've mentioned in another post that i will be reducing my time in this forum, but i still do check in once in a while, and this thread is sort of a personal hobby of mine. I like watching how people react( mostly in frustration if you read this thread, since the market is not agreeing with their personal opinions, which is why most lose money).
Keep up the posts.

Of course, you conveniently neglected to mention that I was spot on about the market rallying from 1115 to 1250 and just about everything else in that post - very nice curve fitting. Granted that's not the point, but ironically...you are totally missing my point...see my post #163 on this thread.

BTW: I'm going to buy more puts, post unemployment volatility drain - bumping my position up to 5% of my risk capital, in spite of the fact you haven't told "us guys" it's O.K. to go short.






Last edited by tigertrader; March 4th, 2011 at 10:52 AM.
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  #170 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
BTW: I'm going to buy more puts, post unemployment volatility drain - bumping my position up to 5% of my risk capital, in spite of the fact you haven't told "us guys" it's O.K. to go short yet.

Tiger you are not playing delta neutral/vol, right? So the puts are independent bets or are they a hedge?

It is not a trick question. I've been buying/writing stuff as well but the distinction between directional play and hedge has become blurred. That is not necessarily a good thing for me as I've been taught not to make money on hedges.

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