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Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
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No, I've been in real bull markets when we would have huge range, huge accumulation/volume up days. This is something very suspect as the range and volume are very dismal.
By me saying the market is "broken" is a bit of an exaggeration with tongue in cheek .
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
PB, I don't think you're exaggerating all that much when you say the market is broken. It is completely disconnected from economic reality. It's no longer an open market; it's a contrived market based on an IV drip of valueless paper dollars, hence the consistent incline, the small ranges, and the low volume. Dr Bernanke is the economic equivalent of Dr Kevorkian.
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
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Thank you! That's a good analogy! A lot of what I'm referring to here is obviously big picture stuff but I find it very interesting to see what's going on. To add to the big picture perspective, I've attached a few monthly charts for analysis.
I've included the ES, USD, 10 Yr. and 30 Yr. All are offering some interesting insight that is contrary to what the MSM is trying to convey to the general public. I'm no conspiracy theorist or anything, I just like to state the facts I guess.
- The ES still appears to be within a bearish divergence but if it gets up to or above the double top all bets are off obviously.
- The USD is looking to be in a precarious situation and could really head south from here. I'm seeing a small double top coupled with a bearish divergence on the MACD with the averages dropping below the zero line. This is technically danger zone.
- Both the 10 Yr. and 30 Yr. are looking to both just have had bearish divergences and could be well on there way south. Maybe even breaking par.
- I've also included multiple other commodities charts as I believe a majority of the spikes are being heavily influenced by the Fed's QE. As you will see, these spikes are going to hurt and will be remembered for years and years. It's all for the sake of inflating the stock market of course .
As always these are just big picture observations and shouldn't be construed as trade signals, etc. But I wanted to bring this forward as we are truly in interesting times.
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
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I'm not quite sure what your point is here as one liners are hard to understand and are not descriptive enough. Are you trying to say this is a true bull market? From looking at a pure price appreciation perspective, the market has been "bullish" since Sept 1st 2010. If you stayed long from May of last year through August thinking we were still in a "bull market", than I would have to laugh as there were some great opportunities on the short side and if your trading futures, you would have gotten annihilated. From a fundamental perspective, the market is only at these levels because of the Fed and there's clear evidence of that by their daily POMO's hence the purpose for me starting this thread and it's title.
I think it's important that you understand where I'm coming from when reading this thread. It is clear that there is some intervention taking place in the equity markets which is why I find it interesting enough to write about it. Sure other markets could be getting goosed but it's not as obvious and you don't have Bernanke admitting it outright as he has with equities. I definitely welcome other points of view, I think it's great to hear how other people are interpreting the markets. But for the benefit of everyone reading this, please try to provide a bit more description as to how you are arriving with your thoughts.
By the way, and I've said this before, I'm neither Bull nor Bear, I'm a Trend Follower. I've been doing this for a long time and have made great money doing so managing money for clients (as a Portfolio Manager) and my own money. From a trading perspective, I've been swing long since Sept. and have wound out of most of my positions which were in ES, NQ and TF on the equities side.
Out of curiosity, you proclaimed that if I were to show you a monthly chart with price below the the 20 SMA, you could show me a swing long. So I did (attached). I'm very interested and looking to learn.
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
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Thanks! Yes I am however, there hasn't been anything as of late. We almost had a break down on the ES on Nov. 30th but the following day got bought up off the 50 day MA. I don't expect to see anything soon but you never know.
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
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Well, today was an interesting day for the ES and equities in general. There was a nice gap fill in the morning followed by a retracement/run up to the 61.8% level from the high of 1343. From that point, it was a steady sell off throughout the remainder of the day with a close at the lows. As of now, the market is sitting right on it's 20 day MA. Not sure if this was an actual trend changer or simply another day of profit taking. I am seeing a nice divergence on the RSI as it has now fallen out of an overbought level as a result of today's selling.
The next few days should be interesting to watch and see where price will go. Can the Fed and PD's keep this train moving along at 2 miles per hour or have they finally lost control? I won't get excited until we see a close below the 50 day MA and see the MACD drop below the zero line. It's interesting to note that today and Jan 28th are the only days since Dec 1st 2010 that failed to attract a late afternoon ramp job.
If you're long, stay nimble but certainly no signs to go short just yet.
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
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I'm still holding a small long position as I've wound out of most of it. I don't plan to add anything to it as I've made plenty on the trade and feel the risk/reward is too high at these levels. I'm happy with where I'm at but am also cautious for a break down in trend in the next few days. I'm afraid we could see a massive sell off far beyond yesterday's if this catches steam. This market is weighing down hard on the 20 day MA. We'll have to see how it goes.
This could get very interesting. I have a hunch that there's going to be huge pressure on Bernanke to pull his liquidity scam. If that happens, all bets are off. We're going way down.
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
Today saw another day of steady selling before finding some support around 1297 area. There was then an attempt to bounce which brought the market back to the 61.8% area from globex high's before losing steam again. Part of that may have been fueled by Plosser's polyannish comments regarding the economy. But the market ended up fading back down and closed below it's VWAP.
Going forward, I would like to see how the market reacts to the 50 day MA still before making a change in position.
.
