ES Statistics - Emini Index Futures Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


ES Statistics
Updated: Views / Replies:5,149 / 27
Created: by Laserdan Attachments:0

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

ES Statistics

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
North Carolina
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker/Data: Ninja Trader Broker / Continuum
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 57 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 4 given, 56 received

ES Statistics

I am going to start posting statistics for ES. I hope you will find them useful. The open is at 4:30pm EST(6pm on sun) and these stats show the probabilities of a target being hit by the CLOSE tomorrow. So if the targets(YH, YO, YL) are taken out in the after hours or PreMarket session those count as well. If they are not taken out, than they are still good for the RTH session. So with that lets go:

From Globex Open @ 1120 on 9-23-10
Distance to Yesterday Low = -2.75 Chance to get down to 1117.25 = 86.23%
http://screencast.com/t/NTFhMTM1N

Distance to Yesterday High = 14.5 Chance to get up to 1134.50 = 26.15%
http://screencast.com/t/MmRkMDFjMTct

Distance to Yesterday Globex Open = 10 Chance to get up to 1130 = 33.80%
http://screencast.com/t/YTEzZGZl
These stats are based on Globex data from Sept 1998, filtered as shown in images.

Laserdan
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Laserdan for this post:
 
  #2 (permalink)
Quick Summary
Quick Summary Post

Quick Summary is created and edited by users like you... Add FAQ's, Links and other Relevant Information by clicking the edit button in the lower right hand corner of this message.

 
  #3 (permalink)
Elite Member
Berlin, Europe
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,653 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,226 given, 25,602 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



Laserdan View Post
I am going to start posting statistics for ES. I hope you will find them useful. The open is at 4:30pm EST(6pm on sun) and these stats show the probabilities of a target being hit by the CLOSE tomorrow. So if the targets(YH, YO, YL) are taken out in the after hours or PreMarket session those count as well. If they are not taken out, than they are still good for the RTH session. So with that lets go:

From Globex Open @ 1120 on 9-23-10
Distance to Yesterday Low = -2.75 Chance to get down to 1117.25 = 86.23%
http://screencast.com/t/NTFhMTM1N

Distance to Yesterday High = 14.5 Chance to get up to 1134.50 = 26.15%
http://screencast.com/t/MmRkMDFjMTct

Distance to Yesterday Globex Open = 10 Chance to get up to 1130 = 33.80%
http://screencast.com/t/YTEzZGZl
These stats are based on Globex data from Sept 1998, filtered as shown in images.

How do you use these stats?

Reply With Quote
 
  #4 (permalink)
Elite Member
North Carolina
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker/Data: Ninja Trader Broker / Continuum
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 57 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 4 given, 56 received

Well I dont really USE them per say. But I do think that they can be useful in certain situations. Like today, YL had an 86% chance of being taken out. But it never did...they are just statististics. Highly probable != certain.

Now if i see that pice action is in an up trend AND YH hasnt been taken out AND stats say that YH is a reasonable target with a reasonable chance of success AND its not too far away, than I might, repeat might, put a target up there near YH.

So a lot of things have to line up for me to ue it in my trading. I thought i would share the stats each day. Use them in your trading as you wish,or don't use them at all. just my little contibution to the community.

Laserdan
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Laserdan for this post:
 
  #5 (permalink)
Elite Member
Berlin, Europe
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,653 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,226 given, 25,602 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Laserdan View Post
Well I dont really USE them per say. But I do think that they can be useful in certain situations. Like today, YL had an 86% chance of being taken out. But it never did...they are just statististics. Highly probable != certain.

Now if i see that pice action is in an up trend AND YH hasnt been taken out AND stats say that YH is a reasonable target with a reasonable chance of success AND its not too far away, than I might, repeat might, put a target up there near YH.

So a lot of things have to line up for me to ue it in my trading. I thought i would share the stats each day. Use them in your trading as you wish,or don't use them at all. just my little contibution to the community.


I use some similar concepts, but in a different way.

Your statistics are about volatility and conditional probabilities. The volatility is interesting, I use it by plotting yesterday's low and high, pivot levels and pivot ranges. The conditional probability that you indicate is less interesting. When the market opens - or for Fridays after the news release, which is prior to the open - one of several scenarios can be validated.

For example yesterday evening ES tested the Globex low, stopped 1 tick below and immediately snapped back. This is a perfect long setup which was the confirmed by a gap up.

Reply With Quote
 
  #6 (permalink)
Elite Member
North Carolina
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker/Data: Ninja Trader Broker / Continuum
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 57 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 4 given, 56 received

Stats for ES closing on Mon Sept 27

From Globex Open @ 1144 on 9-26-2010
Distance to Yesterday Low = -25.5 Chance to get down to 1118.50 = 5.75%
http://screencast.com/t/MTBkNjZmNjA
Distance to Yesterday High = 0.5 Chance to get up to 1144.50 = 91.65 % - already taken out
http://screencast.com/t/ZjM1NmQ3ZDg
Distance to Yesterday Globex Open = -23.5 Chance to down up to 1120.50 = 14.93%
http://screencast.com/t/YjhmMTE1

Laserdan
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Laserdan for this post:
 
  #7 (permalink)
Elite Member
North Carolina
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker/Data: Ninja Trader Broker / Continuum
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 57 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 4 given, 56 received

Stats for 9-28-2010

From Globex Open @ 1138 on 9-27-2010
Distance to Yesterday Low = -1 Chance to get down to 1137 = 86.60%
http://screencast.com/t/NzM2YjA4Y2M
Distance to Yesterday High = 11.75 Chance to get up to 1149.75 = 25%
http://screencast.com/t/MzUwZTVmNz
Distance to Yesterday Globex Open = 6 Chance to get up to 1144 = 62.22%
http://screencast.com/t/M2ZhZjE1NzU

Laserdan
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Laserdan for this post:
 
  #8 (permalink)
Elite Member
CA
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: Marketdelta and Ninja
Broker/Data: Velocity
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
Posts: 670 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 64 given, 521 received

I trade pretty much how laserdan describes it.... I have statistics, and i look for certain conditions that i look for to see if it agrees... If the risk reward is in my favor(usually 1 point risk per 2 point target), then i take it.

1. when you have a 80% chance of hitting a target, 2. a system(not exactly mechanical, could be anything such as volume or price action) that you use which gives you an edge in terms of trading signals, 3. and if( and only if) the risk:reward is in your favor, then you take it.

Im just pointing out how many stars need to be aligned in order for you to take a trade. You honestly only get 2-3 good setups per DAY if you follow these rules... Most people make 20 trades a day. Thats not right( unless your a scalper, and i haven't met any scalpers that are profitable).

Reply With Quote
 
  #9 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Columbus, OH
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT 8, TOS
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Silvester17's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,332 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 4,579 given, 10,313 received


Michael.H View Post
I trade pretty much how laserdan describes it.... I have statistics, and i look for certain conditions that i look for to see if it agrees... If the risk reward is in my favor(usually 1 point risk per 2 point target), then i take it.

1. when you have a 80% chance of hitting a target, 2. a system(not exactly mechanical, could be anything such as volume or price action) that you use which gives you an edge in terms of trading signals, 3. and if( and only if) the risk:reward is in your favor, then you take it.

Im just pointing out how many stars need to be aligned in order for you to take a trade. You honestly only get 2-3 good setups per DAY if you follow these rules... Most people make 20 trades a day. Thats not right( unless your a scalper, and i haven't met any scalpers that are profitable).

don't want to go off topic, but could you please define "scalping"? because 2 points for me is scalping.

Reply With Quote
 
  #10 (permalink)
Elite Member
North Carolina
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker/Data: Ninja Trader Broker / Continuum
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 57 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 4 given, 56 received

example of analysis


this may be right or wrong, but here goes. I can do more detailed analysis, for example:

IF, I reapeat, IF we get up to YO @ 1144, there will be a 97% chance we also take out YL @ 1137 some time before the close tomorrow.

still there is the 86% chance we take out YL even if we dont get to YO. Look at the chart and the time of this post.

***Crosses Fingers***

Laserdan
Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > > ES Statistics

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Trade Statistics GentleTrader Psychology and Money Management 0 October 22nd, 2010 10:31 PM
Public site statistics Big Mike Feedback and Announcements 0 January 3rd, 2010 02:50 AM
routine for getting range statistics zeller4 NinjaTrader Programming 3 October 15th, 2009 04:22 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:46 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-17 in 0.14 seconds with 19 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.226.34.209