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ES Statistics
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Created: by Laserdan Attachments:0

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ES Statistics

  #21 (permalink)
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Laserdan View Post
From Globex Open @ 1141 on 9-29-2010
Distance to Yesterday Globex Open = .75 Chance to get up to 1141.75 = 100%
http://screencast.com/t/MGQ2ZDYzZj
Distance to Yesterday High = 5.75 Chance to get up to 1146.75 = 57.02%
http://screencast.com/t/MjFjZjJkYWI
Distance to Yesterday Low = -5.5 Chance to get down to 1135.5 = 56.18%
http://screencast.com/t/M2Q1MjQ2ZWMt

As you can see opening in the middle of Yesterdays range doesnt give us much insight to tomorrows Price Action. Its pretty much a coin toss.

Now, I personally think the market will go down tomorrow, but thats not the purpose of this thread.

I think what's missing in your stats (which renders them unusefull in their present state) is a second point of reference. Example, the distance to yesterday High = 5.75, what's the probability for price to return to 1146.75 before making an equivalent trip in the opposite direction considering the opening print at 1141. Or if price moves lower after the opening say 1 point lower at 1140 or 2 or whatever value, what's the chance to get up to 1146.75 ? Conditional stats speaks more than generic stats usually. Conditional stats like this provide actionable knowledge that may result in value.

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  #22 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Example, the distance to yesterday High = 5.75, what's the probability for price to return to 1146.75 before making an equivalent trip in the opposite direction considering the opening print at 1141. Or if price moves lower after the opening say 1 point lower at 1140 or 2 or whatever value, what's the chance to get up to 1146.75 ?

I see your point, and that is the rub with working with OHLC daily values...there is no time component. In your example above the Chance to get up to 1146.75 = 57.02%. No matter how far the price drops, the chance remains the same. Only if we take out the YL target would the % change. Then we could look for the % of both YL and YH targets being hit. See post # 10.

We have only had a couple days (maybe one if I remeber correctly) where the stats have been very useful. Some days they are dead on.

Like I said before...tomorrow is a coin flip as far as direction goes. The predictive value of the stats are limited. If they are useful to you GREAT! If not, thats OK too.



Laserdan
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  #23 (permalink)
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New format today...easier on me:

From Globex Open @ 1136 on 9-30-2010
D to YO 5 @ 1141 = 70.27%
http://screencast.com/t/M2E5M2Mw
D to YH 17.5 @ 1153.5 = 12.5%
http://screencast.com/t/ODRkZmEwN
D to YL -4.75 @ 1131.25 = 85.92%
http://screencast.com/t/YjY3ZjI5MGEt

Laserdan
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  #24 (permalink)
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now that YO has been taken out there is a 33% chance to take out YL

Laserdan
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  #25 (permalink)
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Stats for ES close on Mon Oct 4 2010

This doesnt say much:

From Globex Open @ 1143.25 on 10-3-2010
D to YO -7.5 @ 1135.75 = 45.45%
http://screencast.com/t/MzgzYTYzOW
D to YH 3.25 @ 1146.5 = 65.91%
http://screencast.com/t/NjZkYjI4OTc
D to YL -8.75 @ 1134.5 = 46.67%
http://screencast.com/t/MGY3MGMxMGM

Laserdan
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  #26 (permalink)
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From Globex Open @ 1134.75 on 10-4-2010
D to YO 8.5 @ 1143.25 = 47.62%
http://screencast.com/t/OTkzMDhkND
D to YH 9.25 @ 1144 = 39.81%
http://screencast.com/t/Yjk4MjNlMW
D to YL -7.75 @ 1127 = 59.20%
http://screencast.com/t/NmI5Y2VhMD

Another day with pretty much useless stats

Laserdan
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  #27 (permalink)
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From Globex Open @ 1155 on 10-5-2010
D to YO -20.25 @ 1134.75 = 17.86%
http://screencast.com/t/l3CB23Jg
D to YH 3.75 @ 1158.75 = 81.85%
http://screencast.com/t/2Rb99MhyKxi9
D to YL -22.25 @ 1132.75 = 25%
http://screencast.com/t/HhJbjhbNUC

Laserdan
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  #28 (permalink)
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From Globex Open @ 1155.75 on 10-6-2010
D to YO -0.75 @ 1155 = 90.71%
http://screencast.com/t/QFhnIk3ey
D to YH 4.25 @ 1160 = 64.37%
http://screencast.com/t/tFIqFpfQF
D to YL -4.75 @ 1151 = 57.80%
http://screencast.com/t/qmkP2ttf

Laserdan
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