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2 Points per day from ES??
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2 Points per day from ES??

  #61 (permalink)
Fortitudo et Honor
Austin, TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Family Trader View Post
With due respect...NO absolutely not....if the trader has succeeded in averaging 2 points per day for 6 months it is, in my opinion, reasonable to realize a similar result over a 3 year period provided the strategy and trade management in robust enough to counter any significant behavioral changes in the ES market.

If the trader was successful over the 6 month period to realize those results it has to be reasonable to assume the trader has good discipline and controls...and good luck to them!!

Trader

Really? So let's go down this slippery slope.

Would 5 months translate to a 3 year equivalent? What about 4 months? 3 months? How about 2 weeks? What about 1 day?

If someone called you up and said...hey, I've got a guy who can invest your money and earn 20% a day! What sort of track record or history would you need to believe he/she could do that going forward for say a year?

"A dumb man never learns. A smart man learns from his own failure and success. But a wise man learns from the failure and success of others."
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  #62 (permalink)
Elite Member
Germany
 
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Platform: MT4, StrategyRunner
Favorite Futures: ES,EUR/USD,Oil
 
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RM99 View Post
Really? So let's go down this slippery slope.

Would 5 months translate to a 3 year equivalent? What about 4 months? 3 months? How about 2 weeks? What about 1 day?

If someone called you up and said...hey, I've got a guy who can invest your money and earn 20% a day! What sort of track record or history would you need to believe he/she could do that going forward for say a year?



Well, do YOU have the answer ? Is there an objective answer to this question ? Textbooks in statistics may give some answers but if we're talking about manual/discretionary trading, it's questionable whether employing elaborate statistic analysis is helpful in this context at all.

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  #63 (permalink)
Fortitudo et Honor
Austin, TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Posts: 882 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 128 given, 703 received



TheSeeker View Post
Well, do YOU have the answer ? Is there an objective answer to this question ? Textbooks in statistics may give some answers but if we're talking about manual/discretionary trading, it's questionable whether employing elaborate statistic analysis is helpful in this context at all.

I gave you my answer. There's no "threshold" but only a trend.

The larger the timeframe referenced for performance, the greater correlation and confidence you can have employing that same method/system in the future.

The number of traders who can repeat performance over several years vs several months is quite different.

Even with a "discretionary" style....6 months of performance is not enough to prove conclusively that you've been successful under all the varying conditions the market has to bear.

Like I said, there's no magic number or timeline, just that greater timeframe indicates greater probability of being repeatable and consistent.

"A dumb man never learns. A smart man learns from his own failure and success. But a wise man learns from the failure and success of others."
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  #64 (permalink)
Elite Member
toronto, ontario
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 363 since May 2010
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day trading

if its 2 points or 10 points - its relevent to the time frame and swing factor that the trading strategy employes - i would suggest working on the various strtegies being presented ( if people would be open to them ) and trying to make them a possibility for everyone, maybe even automate them , lets woek together for the benafit of everyone instead of arguing with everyone for the benafit of one

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  #65 (permalink)
Logician
Chicago, IL/USA
 
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zer0's Avatar
 
Posts: 139 since Jun 2011
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Of course it's possible, but your aim is off. You should be looking to take what the market offers you in the time frame of interest. That could be more or less than 2 points, depending on a variety of factors. You need to start by asking the right questions; specifically 'how' not 'if'.

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