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Please don't take offense at my reply to your post.
In my humble opinion; for short-term intraday trading the following parameters have to be present to give one a chance at long-term profitability.
1) Execution
Can you execute consistently at your tested entry/exit with slippage that you account for.
2) Edge
Do you have one? Ways to test this are the simple avg. profit divided by avg. loser or 'profit factor' over time.
3) Winning %
Does your psychology require a high winning % with a lower r:r or can you handle a lower winning % with a higher r:r
Only you can make this decision.
4) How long can you trade intraday consistently
Let's face it; as we get older we tend to not want to sit in front of the market for 7 hours a day; define what you are and are NOT willing to do for trading hours and stick with it.
5) Risk per trade
After doing intraday trading for more than 25+years I have come to the conclusion that for long-term success, for bigger accounts one should NOT risk more than 1% per trade. Have a monthly $$$$ goal (vs roi% or ticks/pts) and hit it consistently.
For small accounts one can risk up to 2.25% per trade and as your account grows gradually and consistently reduce your risk per trade down to 1%.
Honestly, if you are trading a LIQUID instrument--within 18-24 months you will be trading your maximum size (if consistent). At that point you can take your monthly cash flow and begin to diversify.
6) 2 pts per day
This is actually NOT relevant. As I have written if you can keep your dd's reasonable and your method has an edge over time, after 12-18 months you will be able to trade as large as you are comfortable with and then take this 'monthly cash overflow' {after expenses} and either save/invest/diversify it.
A certain amount a day is just being stuck in a wage/salary type mentality IMO. Going to work today I make X an hour and at the end of the week I get a check for Y so I can afford Z on a monthly basis.
Consider if you made 4 points today, didn't trade at all tomorrow you would be averaging 2 points a day.
A hard number pulled out of thin air like this is going to make you put on more bad trades than you would otherwise and not juice good ones. It is just a bad way to approach things. Like in the above you probably would have capped off before even making 4 points with this mindset.
Not to mention 2 points per car is absolutely crushing. Maybe you can get on a streak of winners at this rate but you can't build an atm machine that will do this forever. The OP and being done by 10am is what Edison is referring to I believe in my sig quote.
"if there's a strategy/system out there . . . . that can give me 99% chance I'll make 2 - 3 ticks profit each day on the ES . . . . then I'm dieing to know ? ? ? ?"
I wouldn't even bother going down the route of 2-3 ticks profit per day. Let's say you do 3 trades
1 - lose 3 ticks
2 - gain 3 ticks
3 - gain 3 ticks
Now you are up 3 ticks or $37.50 per contract. You are also most likely paying $12 in commissions per contract. Unless you are paying ultra low commissions, the commissions will kill you.
The other flaw here is the seeking of a ‘system’. There is no system. Forget about looking for a system, it doesn’t exist.
Day trading is a sport. It is not a mental endeavor to find a perfect mathematical system that can be applied blindly. It requires experience which is what you will not get if you are always seeking a system.
It is about swinging the bat before the bowler has let go of the ball.
Not sure what this means and the point you are trying to make? Swinging early means you will still miss completely. (Besides looking a bit silly swinging in fresh air while the bowler still have the ball.)
I like your definition. The one who is faster to click the mouse will win. So moral of this story, search for a good mouse not a system or indicators if you want to win at this game
It's pretty simple. There is no system. It's about you and your ability to read the market and get in without requiring loads of confirmation.
In soccer, when a player takes a penalty kick, the goalkeeper tries to make an educated guess on which way the ball will be kicked. The goalkeeper dives in that direction based on how he sees the shooter line up. He probably also studies how his opponents take penalties too.
The outcome of diving right as the guy is about to kick the ball is that the goalkeeper misses some and saves others. The outcome of waiting for the guy to kick the ball is that you don't save any.
"Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen." --- "Therefore, I Believe it and I will see it. And every day and in every way, I am healthier, wealthier, and wiser
I can not leave false theology go un answered. The first line is from the Bible, but the second sentence is a total misunderstanding of the verse. In religious circles it is called "the name it and claim it gospel" which is totally unbiblical. Just because you have some faith or even great faith, means absolutely nothing if that faith is in the wrong area.
You may have all the faith in the world that you are going to be successful at trading, but if your way of trading doesn't work, it doesn't matter how much faith you have. In the end your faith is misplaced. You need to place it in a winning way of trading.
What if I said it this way: After all loses where my winners cancel out every lose, there are still 10-15 winners left each day in each market. So I say to myslf; today I will have 20 - 30 chances at 20 -30 winners. Then I say to myself: Can I just take 2 of those? I think I can. And can I stop when I have those 2? I think I can. Now I have something that I can have FAITH in.
There were a couple of dozen opportunities today. All I need is two. I have faith in the way I trade.
Biblically speaking, it doesn't matter if you have little or large faith. It just matters that the faith you have, is in the right Person.
