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Dissecting this morning's bad /ES trade


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Dissecting this morning's bad /ES trade

  #11 (permalink)
 
TraderTS's Avatar
 TraderTS 
Texas, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: AMP Futures w/ CQG Data Feed
Trading: ES+MES+TechStocks as of 2022 Previous: ES GC CL [4MES2ES as of 2019MAY] and [4MGC2GC as of 2021JAN]
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snax View Post
Dissecting this morning's bad /ES trade

You were against GapFill players @8:20 am ET
Overnight High 2721.50 reTested of 2722.25 WED's Low, it's Double Top and failed Break-out to new High; therefore, Gap players pushed down to fill it and retested Overnight Low 2700.50 at end of day.

iTS


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  #12 (permalink)
 
snax's Avatar
 snax 
Chicago, IL
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Quoting 
A question for you: Had the the trade worked out, would you have considered it a 'good' trade? In other words, are you evaluating individual trades in terms of their outcomes?

That's a great question. I feel like with each trade I make, my answer to this changes. I have made profits on very stupid trades in sim-trading competitions and on some of my very first live trades in January when I couldn't even use the platform properly.

I think the positive to take away from this is there was a lot of clear, rational thought in my set up, I am just missing so much of what's actually going on in the market. But yeah I hate to admit it, but I am evaluating trades in terms of their outcomes, but like I said, I think there was some good aspects in my approach I should hold on to.


Quoting 
You were against GapFill players @8:20 am ET
Overnight High 2721.50 reTested of 2722.25 WED's Low, it's Double Top and failed Break-out to new High; therefore, Gap players pushed down to fill it and retested Overnight Low 2700.50 at end of day.

Thank you so much, this is very good info, there is a lot for me to learn here:

1 - I don't even know what GapFill players are, but I will research.
2 - I didn't even look at the actual number of the Overnight high, just the shape of the chart.
3 - I didn't notice a Double-Top pattern, nor have I researched them enough.
4 - I didn't understand the significance of the re-testing because I didn't attach any significance to previous Highs or Lows.
5 - Therefore I was ignorant that Gap players (who I didn't know about) pushed to "fill the gap(?)" another thing I don't know about but I can learn about.
6 - and I didn't think to attach any significance to the overnight low of 2700.50.

Well that's pretty humbling, I have a lot information to process and research.

Thank you both of you for sharing your thoughts. I'm frustrated but excited to learn!

Cheers

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  #13 (permalink)
 
TraderTS's Avatar
 TraderTS 
Texas, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: AMP Futures w/ CQG Data Feed
Trading: ES+MES+TechStocks as of 2022 Previous: ES GC CL [4MES2ES as of 2019MAY] and [4MGC2GC as of 2021JAN]
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snax View Post
I'm frustrated but excited to learn!

The most important tool to learn is drawing Fibonacci retracement setup -- see link below


That's why it retested ONL and held up 50%Long 2701 for Target 2731 or break to new high.
You were in the right trend, just not the right time, and a high probability setup--aka "my Edge".

iTS


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iTS
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  #14 (permalink)
 
snax's Avatar
 snax 
Chicago, IL
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Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
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This is incredibly helpful, thank you!

So it seems like a couple good areas I could start focusing on are finding some tools to figure out significant price-levels that may play a role in the near-term while trying to start to understand where other market participants are lurking and what their motives/strategies might be?

The Fibonacci retracement looks like it would have helped, it looks simple enough that I don't need a built-in tool. Its actually testing the overnight high as I'm writing this.

Thanks again,
snax

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  #15 (permalink)
 
TraderTS's Avatar
 TraderTS 
Texas, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: AMP Futures w/ CQG Data Feed
Trading: ES+MES+TechStocks as of 2022 Previous: ES GC CL [4MES2ES as of 2019MAY] and [4MGC2GC as of 2021JAN]
Posts: 454 since Jul 2014
Thanks Given: 281
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Exactly, start with that... then Fibonacci Extension (every flat form provided those tools) along with screen time of PA-Price Action.
In addition, you need to learn Risk/Money management before thinking about trading LIVE.

It's a long... long journey ahead of you.


Find the missing piece of the puzzle... Let's be amazing, be awesome in trading today!
iTS
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  #16 (permalink)
 
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 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
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I find the risk-management the easiest part (though there are aspects I haven't learned I'm sure), its easy to quantify and plan, now its the death by a thousand paper-cuts (ie. one winning trade for $75, two for -$100, + fees) due to uncertainty in the market that I need to try and improve/solve.

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  #17 (permalink)
 
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 snax 
Chicago, IL
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I think this looked like a much stronger trade to go long here to grab the surge of the overnight high, but I sat on my hands to see it unfold.


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  #18 (permalink)
 achoo58 
buffalo grove, Illinois/USA
 
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Snax

The advice you are getting from everyone is generally good. However, I detect that you may be becoming overwhelmed. You are getting a lot of suggestions that don't necessarily fit into an organized trading plan. there are many ways to trade and the goal is to find your own way. In your initial post you seem to have been trading with your "gut". please stop this. it is the surest way to lose money.

Trade only sim until you have a coherent plan that makes money! I saw one of your posts that seemed to say that u make $50 on one trade and lose $100 on the next. Please stop trading NOW, if this is the case. Trading is a business! you shouldn't be trading for "fun" or excitement or because you hate your day job. You trade to make money, pure and simple.

Last, it takes a long time to become consistently profitable. the traders i know who have done it are fanatics. they eat breath and sleep trading. If you are not ready for this type of commitment, quit now while you haven't (i presume) lost a lot of money.

hope this helps

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  #19 (permalink)
 
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 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Edge Clear
Trading: MES
Posts: 2,170 since Feb 2019
Thanks Given: 9,613
Thanks Received: 9,622

Thank you for the advice, I appreciate it. Especially the advice to stop trading with my gut, that is something I am working on.

It is overwhelming in fact to learn all these new strategies and concepts but nothing worth-while is easy, and its ok because I don't need to rush into the markets before I'm ready.

As for the commitment necessary, I do in fact look forward to learning and growing as a trader.

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  #20 (permalink)
 
snax's Avatar
 snax 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Price Action Student
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Edge Clear
Trading: MES
Posts: 2,170 since Feb 2019
Thanks Given: 9,613
Thanks Received: 9,622


Sorry to keep piling into my own thread, but if anyone was reading this stuff and cares to follow I'm starting a sim-trading journal over here where I'll be working on all these concepts and strategies:

Thanks to everyone who's been helping me begin this journey.

snax

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Last Updated on April 21, 2019


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