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Lost & losing hope
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Created: by xevanchan Attachments:30

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Lost & losing hope

 
Elite Member
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Lost & losing hope

Well, i'm back. You may remember me "catastrophic loss days". I really hate to come on this forum just to beg for help, but I am truly at a loss and am contemplating giving up trading the /ES, something that has consumed my life for nearly a year now. I'm not usually so pessimistic or dramatic, but I am truly lost and have no faith. I'm doubting everything I know, and this may very well be my last post so i'm pouring it all out.

I just cant get it. I have weeks, like last week (1/7/18), where I am immensely profitable, followed by this week, where I have lost almost every trade for 3 consecutive days and been margin called. This cycle has repeated itself many, many times. I sim trade until I am profitable for weeks, and then I switch and can't replicate the results.

I took advice on my last post (https://futures.io/emini-index-futures-trading/45814-catastrophic-loss-days.html); I now trade on a 7500 volume heiken-ashi chart instead of 30s, and aim for 3-X point targets with a minimum 2-1 risk reward ratio. I've studied al brooks price action and his H1/H2 method, and have read Anekdoten's ET thread in which he details price action. Despite the pictures, I no longer really use indicators and trade solely off price action. I don't I suffer as much from overtrading anymore; I believe that almost every entry I take has good signals. These methods have helped me become a better trader... on some days.

It seems every week I go negative, I identify problems and solve them, yet each recurring week new problems spring up; my portfolio is akin to a boat that is being continuously shot and sinking as I try to patch holes.

My strategy in a bull trend is as follows; I identify trend, using price action. Next, I wait for a retrace of at least a few points depending on market conditions. Once I see the first bar with HH/HL I will set a stop by 1-2 ticks above the high of that bar. Assuming the market moves in my direction, I let my profits run as far as possible while moving my stop to BE or higher. I exit when I begin to see trend exhaustion. I'll also use basic patterns, like triangles, as well as trend lines and S/R lines. This strategy is fantastic on some days, but I've become convinced some days are just untradeable. I try to completely avoid trading in chop.

One of my biggest (current) problems is not being able to find viable entries. I really still don't whether to use limit or stop buys; I've tried both and they have their pros and cons. I use a HH/HL method, similar to a 123 reversal pattern; this means on a 7500 vol chart often I am too slow to catch moves, and whole retracements can begin and end before I get an entry signal. I refuse to chase for obvious reasons; as a result, in strong trends I often miss out the the entire movement because there are no retraces for me to enter on. I end up just trading in chop, every time. My stop buy is often triggered by a fake out that immediately backs off and triggers my stop, though this may just be due to a small stop.

I never seem to know when trends end, and never seem to know when the market will stop ranging. I attribute my down days to to lower trading ranges and markets more susceptible to chop and unpredictability, which is inevitable. I don't know what to do. I'm attaching images of my last three days. Many of the trades are clearly bad trades, as a result of my impatience, something i need to work on. Maybe I do still over trade. The 3 point gain today was a sim trade; I seem to do much better in sim, on a consistent basis. Last week I averaged 3 points a day sim trading.

In summary; I'm lost at sea in a boat with more holes than I can patch, and have lost hope that the boat will ever sail again. I genuinely appreciate everything this forum has given me and apologize for the long rambling and whining. All advice is greatly appreciated, as I may just give the /ES one last shot. I will take any help I can get, so feel free to PM me.

Attached Thumbnails
Lost & losing hope-es-03-19-7500-volume-heiken-ashi-2019_01_16-11_15_13-am-.png   Lost & losing hope-es-03-19-7500-volume-heiken-ashi-2019_01_15-11_16_01-am-.png   Lost & losing hope-es-03-19-7500-volume-heiken-ashi-2019_01_14-11_16_34-am-.png  
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xevanchan View Post
I sim trade until I am profitable for weeks, and then I switch and can't replicate the results.

Hi xevanchan

You're definitely not alone in your struggle. Many many people have gone through what you are going through.


I want to stress, I don't mean to trivialize what you wrote by saying others have gone through that too, but I believe for many it's the nature of the beast.

In particular, the quote above is common to many I think.

Take myself: last time I checked I was committing 3x mistakes (trading errors) in live Vs SIM. I have seen other successful traders share a similar issue.


May I ask, how many live trades do you have under your belt?

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Market Wizard
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first off these past two weeks have been very different then what we have seen before. I think you need to be able to identify this. Its hard to be able to turn to different entries/edges but its something we have to do. I normally trade pull backs/rallies well lately its been all about selling tops and buying bottoms because we are stuck in a range. Be sure to keep an eye on the daily charts.

On the flip side we can "pop" any moment and start a trend either up/down

But from the looks of your pictures you are trading momentum plays in a ranging market not to mention you have a very tight s/l which is fine when we are trending with lots of momentum in one direction but the current state you need to give trades room to work.. its hard I struggle with it and im sure others do to.

Don't change what has worked in the past, change what isnt working right now...

Basically make two play books
1) trending day
2) range day

go back and look at range days and see if you can find common edges that you can use over and over again. I would suggest you look at HOY/COY/RTH open these are all solid points that everyone in the world has to recognize and cant be changed depending on what you or I call support or resistance

-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
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Elite Member
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xplorer View Post
Hi xevanchan

You're definitely not alone in your struggle. Many many people have gone through what you are going through.


I want to stress, I don't mean to trivialize what you wrote by saying others have gone through that too, but I believe for many it's the nature of the beast.

In particular, the quote above is common to many I think.

Take myself: last time I checked I was committing 3x mistakes (trading errors) in live Vs SIM. I have seen other successful traders share a similar issue.


May I ask, how many live trades do you have under your belt?

Yeah you're right. Must be the psych. I have just under 400 live trades with varying contract size. 61% win rate overall with a ton of different strategies.

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MiniP View Post
first off these past two weeks have been very different then what we have seen before. I think you need to be able to identify this. Its hard to be able to turn to different entries/edges but its something we have to do. I normally trade pull backs/rallies well lately its been all about selling tops and buying bottoms because we are stuck in a range. Be sure to keep an eye on the daily charts.

On the flip side we can "pop" any moment and start a trend either up/down

But from the looks of your pictures you are trading momentum plays in a ranging market not to mention you have a very tight s/l which is fine when we are trending with lots of momentum in one direction but the current state you need to give trades room to work.. its hard I struggle with it and im sure others do to.

Don't change what has worked in the past, change what isnt working right now...

Basically make two play books
1) trending day
2) range day

go back and look at range days and see if you can find common edges that you can use over and over again. I would suggest you look at HOY/COY/RTH open these are all solid points that everyone in the world has to recognize and cant be changed depending on what you or I call support or resistance

-P

On range days I always fear that the range will not continue when I want to enter into a trade. I've looked into fading strategies for range days. I'm not familiar COY/HOY- could you clairify? I'd be happy to check them out.

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Market Wizard
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xevanchan View Post
On range days I always fear that the range will not continue when I want to enter into a trade. I've looked into fading strategies for range days. I'm not familiar COY/HOY- could you clairify? I'd be happy to check them out.

COY- close of yesterday
HOY- High of yesterday
LOY- Low of yesterday
RTH- regular trading hours

you have to be able to guage whats going on and its trading nothing is going to continue for ever.
If you are in a range and a new HL starts to form then you might want to move to b/e or watch to see what happens. BUT on range days we sometimes see the range expand for a few points/ticks. This is most likely happening as everyone knows there are stop orders out there and we can add a little liquidity to the mix if we get to this orders. Now that isnt always true but its a good way to think.

Try and place your s/l where 1) there won't be a liquidity hunt 2) where if you are wrong then you are wrong and its good you got out.


-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
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MiniP View Post
COY- close of yesterday
HOY- High of yesterday
LOY- Low of yesterday
RTH- regular trading hours

you have to be able to guage whats going on and its trading nothing is going to continue for ever.
If you are in a range and a new HL starts to form then you might want to move to b/e or watch to see what happens. BUT on range days we sometimes see the range expand for a few points/ticks. This is most likely happening as everyone knows there are stop orders out there and we can add a little liquidity to the mix if we get to this orders. Now that isnt always true but its a good way to think.

Try and place your s/l where 1) there won't be a liquidity hunt 2) where if you are wrong then you are wrong and its good you got out.


-P

Yeah, I suck at gauging the market-I don't have the confidence to confidently predict. I typically move my S/L to one tick below low of previous bar once current bar closes. I do consider HOY/LOY as well as VPOC as well as where the market opens relative to the previous day's range. Not too familiar with this type of analysis yet, but I will continue to look into it. I appreciate the advice.

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xevanchan View Post
Well, i'm back. You may remember me "catastrophic loss days". I really hate to come on this forum just to beg for help, but I am truly at a loss and am contemplating giving up trading the /ES, something that has consumed my life for nearly a year now. I'm not usually so pessimistic or dramatic, but I am truly lost and have no faith. I'm doubting everything I know, and this may very well be my last post so i'm pouring it all out.

I just cant get it.

12:33 PM 2019-01-16

I know its hard and I feel for you but I have no easy answers.
(except toss Al Brooks in the g can)

If one year - 24/7 were enough then millionaires would be mice at a free wine-and-cheese.
(Cheese highlighted.)

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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xevanchan View Post
Yeah, I suck at gauging the market-I don't have the confidence to confidently predict. I typically move my S/L to one tick below low of previous bar once current bar closes. I do consider HOY/LOY as well as VPOC as well as where the market opens relative to the previous day's range. Not too familiar with this type of analysis yet, but I will continue to look into it. I appreciate the advice.

remember you are not predicting what the market is doing you are simply reacting to what the current market is doing and what your edge tells you to do. predictions lead to bias's which lead to shorting the bottom.
React don't predict.

Now there is nothing wrong with have a few overall thoughts on where the market is going to go but be flexible. If you are trading intra day you have to be able to go short after 10 days of bull control etc etc


-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
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