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Lost & losing hope


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Lost & losing hope

  #131 (permalink)
Silicon
Gilbert Arizona
 
Posts: 6 since Mar 2017
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This is strictly my personal opinion, through my own experience.

Stop trading futures.

There have been plenty of studies on how it's a 50/50 chance every trade. Technicals are worthless as the markets are pure random.

Check out tasty trade.

Put some context around risk, and let the math work out.

Once you build your account size to over ~100k, then you can scalp a few ticks or add some static delta.

Otherwise, quit putting yourself through the misery.

In my opinion, if you have some taste for some risk, sell some far 10-20 delta OTM 45day calls or puts.

Good luck out there!

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  #132 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
Legendary Retail Failure
 
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Can you send me those studies?

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  #133 (permalink)
Silicon
Gilbert Arizona
 
Posts: 6 since Mar 2017
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Check out tasty trade.

In my opinion,

There is no edge in trading futures from a retail trader perspective.

HFTs, different story.

A edge lies in selling overstated implied volatility.

Do these and you can find better results,
Liquidity
Diversification
Trade small
Trade often
Solid mechanics

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  #134 (permalink)
 
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 Anagami 
Cancun, Mexico
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Silicon View Post

There is no edge in trading futures from a retail trader perspective.

I agree with you 99.9% of the time. But, there is that 0.1% of the time when the markets are not efficient to the point when even a retail trader can spot it. Not exactly a high frequency incidence... but a significant one... from a retail perspective.

You are never in the wrong place... but sometimes you are in the right place looking at things in the wrong way.
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  #135 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
Legendary Retail Failure
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Trading: MNQ
Posts: 677 since Sep 2018
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Silicon View Post
Check out tasty trade.

In my opinion,

There is no edge in trading futures from a retail trader perspective.

HFTs, different story.

A edge lies in selling overstated implied volatility.

Do these and you can find better results,
Liquidity
Diversification
Trade small
Trade often
Solid mechanics

What's your take on options trading?

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  #136 (permalink)
 
MiniP's Avatar
 MiniP 
USA,USA
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Silicon View Post
Check out tasty trade.

In my opinion,

There is no edge in trading futures from a retail trader perspective.

HFTs, different story.

A edge lies in selling overstated implied volatility.

Do these and you can find better results,
Liquidity
Diversification
Trade small
Trade often
Solid mechanics

no edge in a retail trader? lets see.

* does not have to get permission to trade an idea
* can trade what he/she wants
* has the chance of keeping a small overhead
* does not have the stress of big banks and other large intuitions


there are tons of individuals on this forum who benefit from trading from a retail stand point,

trade often? unless you are a HFT a retail trader should be taking less positions

-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
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  #137 (permalink)
Silicon
Gilbert Arizona
 
Posts: 6 since Mar 2017
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Thanks Received: 4

Im struggling to see how those give you a credible edge.

Volatility has a proven history of reverting to the mean(edge).

Another good argument would be, well since markets are so efficient, there is no arbitrage(edge) opportunity, which makes for a zero sum game.

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  #138 (permalink)
 
Fluid Fox's Avatar
 Fluid Fox 
Bangor, Maine
Legendary Retail Failure
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Trading: MNQ
Posts: 677 since Sep 2018
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So the retail futures traders that apparently have edge, are in reality, just lucky?

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  #139 (permalink)
 
MiniP's Avatar
 MiniP 
USA,USA
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Zachary Standley View Post
So the retail futures traders that apparently have edge, are in reality, just lucky?

there will always be a little luck in this game but the whole idea is how to get some luck on your side its that simple no one knows where the market is going.

-P

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
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  #140 (permalink)
 
Salao's Avatar
 Salao 
Los Angeles CA
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Silicon View Post
Check out tasty trade.

In my opinion,

There is no edge in trading futures from a retail trader perspective.

HFTs, different story.

A edge lies in selling overstated implied volatility.

Do these and you can find better results,
Liquidity
Diversification
Trade small
Trade often
Solid mechanics

Yeeeeeeaaah...selling premium is way safer than trading futures? With all due respect my friend...the question isn't whether or not you will nuke your account, the question is when. Be safe.

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