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2018 ES Volatility & Breaking Through to Profitability
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2018 ES Volatility & Breaking Through to Profitability

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
New York, NY, USA
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker/Data: InteractiveBrokers, Kinetick
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 8 since Mar 2017
Thanks: 2 given, 25 received

A few updates:

a. I made a decision to 100% focus on NinjaTrader 8 with IB.

b. Next I decided that I needed more discipline to buy lows and sell highs. For me, Regression Channels seem to work pretty well for that. In NT8, the Regression Channels dynamically redraw during the day. I colored the upper and lower channels differently to remind me whether I should be going long or short. I am reasonably satisfied that regression channels are a useful tool for identifying balance and excess. During the day there are almost always times when the market becomes unbalanced and price travels far beyond your regression channels. Here's an example from EOD today.
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c. I tinkered around with ES Targets and Stops to get different results with Profit Factor, % profitable, etc. Being an engineer and a perfectionist, I often though in terms of very high % profitable. But I never made much progress with that, where progress is defined as getting to somewhere comfortable that's also consistently profitable. So now I've moved to lower % profitable targets with a larger profit factor, and the drama is much less than before.

d. I reverted to paper-trading until I feel comfortable with item c. above. I'm going to give myself until early July and then go back to trading with real cash.

e. I learned that I was exposing myself to too much daily drama. It's not possible to think clearly while having so much drama.

I hope to hear from others who are on the same path.

Thanks for reading.

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  #12 (permalink)
Elite Member
nashville, tn
 
Trading Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja 8
Favorite Futures: es
 
Posts: 78 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 62 given, 11 received

regression

How is the regression channel going? any tips or examples?

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