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I just started trading /ES and found something that is really different than what I used to trade(small-cap stocks).
It seems that although /ES loves to move back and forth a lot, the trend we see when the market opens(around 6:40 PST), usually won't reverse till at least 9:00-10:00 PST. Checked through recent charts and it seems to stand.
I'm not sure if it is true as I just started. What do y'all think?
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
It likely makes a reversal because of the imminent close of the European markets. The ES is sensitive to global open/close hours. Most large institutions have their algorithms geared to the first hour, last, hour, large trend shifts, etc.
Yes I agree that after London/Frankfurt closes things can change. I frequently see the last half hour of European markets as positive, then up to a half hour or so of nothing before the New York drift up grips the market.
In a positive way may I suggest you start thinking in Greenwich Mean + time. All the zones confuse things and then those Europeans are so far north that Daylight Savings is three weeks off from in the US. Way easier to say GM +5 or GM +7 https://market24hclock.com/
How many times did Fat Tails have to re-explain market hours settings for his VWAP, I swear the man has the patience of a saint!
By the way Futures Trader 71 says the night session is usually about 10% of the day session. So if you assume that the power hour for US based traders more or less applies to Europe then you would speculate that about 12 to 18% of the volume goes away when they close.
