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Am I ready to go live?
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Am I ready to go live?

  #1 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Costa Mesa, CA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: emini SP500
 
Posts: 4 since Jan 2017
Thanks: 3 given, 3 received

Am I ready to go live?

With aspirations of being a professional day trader of ES, I started paper trading May 18 this year. I think I’ve been doing well enough to begin live trading (starting with $25k). My living expenses are already covered.

I’ve been using Barry Taylor’s “Better Indicators” and no other “system” to make my entries and exits. Here are my results so far:
31 trading days as of last Friday, June 30th.
356 trades, 205 gainers, 151 losers - 1.36 gainers to losers ratio, average 11.48 trades per day
Profits net commissions $10,108 to date, losses $7,277.30, net profit $2,830.70, profit:loss ratio 1.39
Expectancy” (not sure if I’m using the correct formula, although I’ve seen different formulas in the various sources I’ve studied). I used $200 for R (4 point stop loss).
(% gainers .5758 X $10,108 ÷ no. gainers 205 ÷ $200) – (% losers .4242 X $7,277.30 ÷ 151 ÷ $200) = .040
Or $7.95/trade = .040 X $200

My maximum drawdown has been $1,337. My most losers in a row were 7 trades.

I projected my results using one contract per $8,000 equity (rounded down). Four point stop loss being 2.5% of $8,000 of equity and considered that risk reasonable with the results so far. The projection showed compounding rich results within two~three years.

I will be working to reduce my number of trades while trying to win better than $7.95/trade.
How do you think I’m doing? Am I ready to start trading real money?

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
stony brook new york usa
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: cqg ibroker
Favorite Futures: emini
 
Posts: 1 since Jul 2017
Thanks: 4 given, 1 received

good job



DougStewart View Post
With aspirations of being a professional day trader of ES, I started paper trading May 18 this year. I think I’ve been doing well enough to begin live trading (starting with $25k). My living expenses are already covered.

I’ve been using Barry Taylor’s “Better Indicators” and no other “system” to make my entries and exits. Here are my results so far:
31 trading days as of last Friday, June 30th.
356 trades, 205 gainers, 151 losers - 1.36 gainers to losers ratio, average 11.48 trades per day
Profits net commissions $10,108 to date, losses $7,277.30, net profit $2,830.70, profit:loss ratio 1.39
Expectancy” (not sure if I’m using the correct formula, although I’ve seen different formulas in the various sources I’ve studied). I used $200 for R (4 point stop loss).
(% gainers .5758 X $10,108 ÷ no. gainers 205 ÷ $200) – (% losers .4242 X $7,277.30 ÷ 151 ÷ $200) = .040
Or $7.95/trade = .040 X $200

My maximum drawdown has been $1,337. My most losers in a row were 7 trades.

I projected my results using one contract per $8,000 equity (rounded down). Four point stop loss being 2.5% of $8,000 of equity and considered that risk reasonable with the results so far. The projection showed compounding rich results within two~three years.

I will be working to reduce my number of trades while trying to win better than $7.95/trade.
How do you think I’m doing? Am I ready to start trading real money?

good luck guy

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  #4 (permalink)
Elite Member
Wiltshire, United Kingdom
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: TSTrader(Tradovate)
Broker/Data: Working on a TST combine
Favorite Futures: ES, NQ
 
matthew28's Avatar
 
Posts: 356 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 310 given, 407 received


DougStewart View Post
Am I ready to start trading real money?

I would suggest before you start live you write out a trading plan containing your exact details of how you have been trading. Don't just specify what to do but also how to react if or when you find yourself in a situation outside your rules. Example topics to cover might be:

1. When you won't trade, eg. futures markets open but it is a holiday in the US, if you feel unwell, have a bad headache etc.

2. Maximum number of contracts you will trade at a time, and in total if scaling in. What to do if you exceed your limit ie. Exit the extra contracts immediately, don't try to get back to scratch on them if you shouldn't have them on in the first place. How many times will you permit yourself to try the same trade location entry if you get stopped out.

3. When you will stop trading for the day. How many losing trades straight off before you call it a day and say the day just isn't working for you and stop. Daily, weekly, monthly loss limits. Whether you will reduce size after a few losses just to get some small positive trades and reassure yourself before going back up to a full position. Will you switch off the computer or remain watching the market after you decide not to trade anymore that day. I would suggest closing the DOM to avoid temptation to try and make the money back, and not bother sim trading either because if you make the money back on sim you will be tempted to carry on past your loss limit next time to make it back. Conversely, on days when it is going well and you feel yourself in sync with the market will you really push it or are you trading with a general profit target in mind, or maximum number of trades a day.

4. Have your broker contact details in your home phone, and mobile for if the power goes down, and your account details so you can call them immediately to get out of a trade if necessary.

5. Try to clearly define what you want to see for you to enter or exit a trade. Decide what you will do if you enter an impulse trade and immediately know you shouldn't be in it, ie hit out straight away accept the small loss or profit.

6. Will you take a few minutes break every so often. Will you allow yourself to look at websites/forums when trading or do you need to focus 100% when your trading platform is open.

7. What are your permitted trade times, which items of news will you be flat for.

8. What premarket analysis do you do. Do you write it down or just think about it. Same for analysis during the day and after the close. Will you write a journal through the day. Will you include a psychological diary of how you felt during the day about certain trades, will it include things you did well, aspects you want to carry forward to work on tomorrow. Will you carry on recording trade details for analysis at a later date.

So basically make a good trading plan so you have as much as possible clear in your head before you start. Entry and exit will always be a little subjective but the rest, especially money management and when to stop you want as clearly defined as possible so you know when you are wrong and have already defined what you will do in that situation. Don't under estimate the psychological difference of using real money to sim and how that might cloud your judgements when you have a trade on. If you have already thought about AND written out a clear plan you will find it much easier to stick to it.
Just my 2 cents off the top of my head. Good luck.

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  #5 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.orderflowdashpro.com 
North Carolina
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Tradestation
Favorite Futures: es
 
Posts: 266 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 62 given, 253 received

I see potential problems.

Why are you proposing this as an all or nothing proposition? Why are you mentioning living expenses? Why not place a few live trades, gain some information, and continue to trade in simulator? Are you using a realistic limit order fill engine or using market orders? Here's an idea, shadow your sim account with a live account for 10 trades and see how the results look.

I think your per trade profit is a little low for $250 stops: however this depends on how everything is accounted for. But, I'd rather see that at around $35 to $40 per trade on sim or at least $15 live. I stress that's just my feeling on the matter and nothing really conclusive.

How are you placing trades? Generally speaking, I think a day trader should be trading off the DOM and reading tape because I don't think the chart trader is precise enough. However, if you use a big enough stop and try for bigger trades then you may do okay ignoring the tape. However, I think some training in the DOM might be useful for execution. A good traders should be able to pick spots where they can get their limits filled but there are times to switch from limit to market.

Also, are you using some discretion or intuitive read of the market or are executing in a mechanical way? I am extremely leery of anyone who trades in a mechanical way without a backtested system because most things will not work in a mechanical way. Beyond that, if you are executing mechanically then there is no reason not to backtest and just trade it as a system. As for compounding returns, it is far more wise to hope to decrease your percentage risk as you increase your account size.

Keep in mind the market can change natures. It may help to psychologically prepare for certain eventualities: trading in bull and bear periods, low and high volatility, and also preparing for real-life problems such as trade execution problems, , platform freezes, mistakes, etc.



DougStewart View Post
With aspirations of being a professional day trader of ES, I started paper trading May 18 this year. I think I’ve been doing well enough to begin live trading (starting with $25k). My living expenses are already covered.

I’ve been using Barry Taylor’s “Better Indicators” and no other “system” to make my entries and exits. Here are my results so far:
31 trading days as of last Friday, June 30th.
356 trades, 205 gainers, 151 losers - 1.36 gainers to losers ratio, average 11.48 trades per day
Profits net commissions $10,108 to date, losses $7,277.30, net profit $2,830.70, profit:loss ratio 1.39
Expectancy” (not sure if I’m using the correct formula, although I’ve seen different formulas in the various sources I’ve studied). I used $200 for R (4 point stop loss).
(% gainers .5758 X $10,108 ÷ no. gainers 205 ÷ $200) – (% losers .4242 X $7,277.30 ÷ 151 ÷ $200) = .040
Or $7.95/trade = .040 X $200

My maximum drawdown has been $1,337. My most losers in a row were 7 trades.

I projected my results using one contract per $8,000 equity (rounded down). Four point stop loss being 2.5% of $8,000 of equity and considered that risk reasonable with the results so far. The projection showed compounding rich results within two~three years.

I will be working to reduce my number of trades while trying to win better than $7.95/trade.
How do you think I’m doing? Am I ready to start trading real money?



Last edited by tpredictor; July 4th, 2017 at 08:06 AM.
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  #6 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Costa Mesa, CA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: emini SP500
 
Posts: 4 since Jan 2017
Thanks: 3 given, 3 received


matthew28 View Post
I would suggest before you start live you write out a trading plan containing your exact details of how you have been trading. Don't just specify what to do but also how to react if or when you find yourself in a situation outside your rules. Example topics to cover might be:

1. When you won't trade, eg. futures markets open but it is a holiday in the US, if you feel unwell, have a bad headache etc.

2. Maximum number of contracts you will trade at a time, and in total if scaling in. What to do if you exceed your limit ie. Exit the extra contracts immediately, don't try to get back to scratch on them if you shouldn't have them on in the first place. How many times will you permit yourself to try the same trade location entry if you get stopped out.

3. When you will stop trading for the day. How many losing trades straight off before you call it a day and say the day just isn't working for you and stop. Daily, weekly, monthly loss limits. Whether you will reduce size after a few losses just to get some small positive trades and reassure yourself before going back up to a full position. Will you switch off the computer or remain watching the market after you decide not to trade anymore that day. I would suggest closing the DOM to avoid temptation to try and make the money back, and not bother sim trading either because if you make the money back on sim you will be tempted to carry on past your loss limit next time to make it back. Conversely, on days when it is going well and you feel yourself in sync with the market will you really push it or are you trading with a general profit target in mind, or maximum number of trades a day.

4. Have your broker contact details in your home phone, and mobile for if the power goes down, and your account details so you can call them immediately to get out of a trade if necessary.

5. Try to clearly define what you want to see for you to enter or exit a trade. Decide what you will do if you enter an impulse trade and immediately know you shouldn't be in it, ie hit out straight away accept the small loss or profit.

6. Will you take a few minutes break every so often. Will you allow yourself to look at websites/forums when trading or do you need to focus 100% when your trading platform is open.

7. What are your permitted trade times, which items of news will you be flat for.

8. What premarket analysis do you do. Do you write it down or just think about it. Same for analysis during the day and after the close. Will you write a journal through the day. Will you include a psychological diary of how you felt during the day about certain trades, will it include things you did well, aspects you want to carry forward to work on tomorrow. Will you carry on recording trade details for analysis at a later date.

So basically make a good trading plan so you have as much as possible clear in your head before you start. Entry and exit will always be a little subjective but the rest, especially money management and when to stop you want as clearly defined as possible so you know when you are wrong and have already defined what you will do in that situation. Don't under estimate the psychological difference of using real money to sim and how that might cloud your judgements when you have a trade on. If you have already thought about AND written out a clear plan you will find it much easier to stick to it.
Just my 2 cents off the top of my head. Good luck.

Damn, Matthew! Thanks for the very thoughtful reply. I do some of the above, but not all, yet. Will try to incorporate your suggestions.

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