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The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action
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The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action

  #31 (permalink)
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@Feibel

Thanks for the detailed answer. I have never been a big fan of bar per bar reading as i considered it a bit myopic but i find your examples quite refreshing. It's interesting how you can read all of the clues about supply/demand along with strength and weakness from a simple 5 min. chart. If i compare it to other complex frameworks (Volume profile, VWAP, Bookmap, Tape reading, name it). You seem to have adopted the simplicity model in your analysis.

Do you take into consideration the overnight session as well as the high/low of the prior RTH session or just the daily bar only? ANd what about the GAP between RTH sessions? Does it matter to you?

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  #32 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
@Feibel

Thanks for the detailed answer. I have never been a big fan of bar per bar reading as i considered it a bit myopic but i find your examples quite refreshing. It's interesting how you can read all of the clues about supply/demand along with strength and weakness from a simple 5 min. chart. If i compare it to other complex frameworks (Volume profile, VWAP, Bookmap, Tape reading, name it). You seem to have adopted the simplicity model in your analysis.

Do you take into consideration the overnight session as well as the high/low of the prior RTH session or just the daily bar only? ANd what about the GAP between RTH sessions? Does it matter to you?

Throughout my trading career I have adopted a policy that simplicity is best. This works most favourable for my trading style and psychological make up. The key, or of great importance is that I BELIEVE in the method and my ability to execute, there is no doubt in my mind. If I continue to develop, work on my weaknesses, day in, day out, to keep on pushing and growing I will succeed (not comparing to others, but becoming the best version of myself within the market place). This was the main attraction that drew me to this method, there is no need for additional info. Of course over the years we develop our own nuances and gain further insights - this is to be expected through natural growth

Overnight data is important from my perspective as there is enough trading these days (due to the advancement of electronic trading) that provide good levels of support and resistance, I often take positions during the European session.
If one studies the Asian, European and US sessions, there are distinct correlations that can help prepare for the day ahead

Gaps in my opinion are nothing more than an imbalance between demand and supply - if we gap open, I would simply draw the tail from the previous close and analyse as normal.

Hope this helps,


Last edited by Feibel; June 19th, 2017 at 12:53 PM.
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  #33 (permalink)
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ES 19th June 17


Wyckoff principles at play in today's action:

Spring
Upthrust
Imbalance between demand and supply (Gap)

PDF attached (2 pages)

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  #34 (permalink)
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@Feibel

One thing i noticed on a 5min chart after the first and half hour of trading reading vertical volume on a bar per bar basis is difficult as the difference between each bar seems insignificant except when you get a spike on an uptrust or a spring. I was looking at your first entry and was wondering how you manage to always be able to find the perfect entry without adverse excursion. What's your trick?

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  #35 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
@Feibel

One thing i noticed on a 5min chart after the first and half hour of trading reading vertical volume on a bar per bar basis is difficult as the difference between each bar seems insignificant except when you get a spike on an upthrust or a spring. I was looking at your first entry and was wondering how you manage to always be able to find the perfect entry without adverse excursion. What's your trick?

Good question:

A relatively simple answer 1000's of hours of chart experience. The trade was relatively simple.
If we make our story:

Gap Up (major strength)
Holding a level of support during overnight (strength)
Breaking the all time highs with clean price action (major strength)
A huge wave up (major strength)

When the market is this strong we need to be aggressive in nature and find an excuse if you will to jump onboard a weak pullback.

The first bar of weakness was to be expected, the average true range was in play and a psychological number of 2450.00. NOTE - the reaction, there was no supply pressure (volume light, spreads narrow etc) . Compare the upwaves to the downwaves it becomes crystal clear whose in control. We had a level of support in play and only one bar closed under, which was immediately reversed. Combined with the background conditions (of strength) this was our opportunity. Ideally the play is to break the last swing high. This was optimistic due to the average true range (via daily) soon as we see the upthrust (major weakness) exit and reverse.

When we have demand in complete control, its supply that needs to prove itself. We can continue to grind up with low volume. Granted this kind of price is not ideal, but as traders we need to be aware and adapt to different market conditions.

Hope this gives some clarity,

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  #36 (permalink)
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Feibel View Post
Good question:

A relatively simple answer 1000's of hours of chart experience. The trade was relatively simple.
If we make our story:

Gap Up (major strength)
Holding a level of support during overnight (strength)
Breaking the all time highs with clean price action (major strength)
A huge wave up (major strength)

When the market is this strong we need to be aggressive in nature and find an excuse if you will to jump onboard a weak pullback.

The first bar of weakness was to be expected, the average true range was in play and a psychological number of 2450.00. NOTE - the reaction, there was no supply pressure (volume light, spreads narrow etc) . Compare the upwaves to the downwaves it becomes crystal clear whose in control. We had a level of support in play and only one bar closed under, which was immediately reversed. Combined with the background conditions (of strength) this was our opportunity. Ideally the play is to break the last swing high. This was optimistic due to the average true range (via daily) soon as we see the upthrust (major weakness) exit and reverse.

When we have demand in complete control, its supply that needs to prove itself. We can continue to grind up with low volume. Granted this kind of price is not ideal, but as traders we need to be aware and adapt to different market conditions.

Hope this gives some clarity,

Hi @Feibel

Could you explain why the price action at 16:05, 16:10 on your chart would not have also qualified for a long entry?

Thanks in advance

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Sazon View Post
Hi @Feibel

Could you explain why the price action at 16:05, 16:10 on your chart would not have also qualified for a long entry?

Thanks in advance

That's exactly the spot i had in mind. This was the first entry point, he took the second entry. That's what i meant by perfect entry. Unless it is in your plan to always take the second entry.

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  #38 (permalink)
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@Sazon

Excellent observation

The bar in question is a valid entry and with a mere 2.5 point stop underneath support would have been a successful trade. For myself the weakness from bar B was overt, it has the second highest volume on the chart (at that time) spread is fairly large. We had printed 6 bars after B and I was unsure ( I had limit order out and cancelled, not 100% convinced) as the market unfolded another 6 bars and we tried for lower prices on lower volume with a bob back up to close at support was the confirmation I needed. This method is discretionary and I'm sure many traders would of entered at 16:05, if bar B's volume was a 1/3 less (there was a great deal of selling in this bar) I may of entered earlier. Good question

Hope this helps

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  #39 (permalink)
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Hi @Feibel,
What made you hold for more on your 2nd entry from F? What was the indication that there was more to come?
Thank you.

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  #40 (permalink)
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Grantx View Post
Hi @Feibel,
What made you hold for more on your 2nd entry from F? What was the indication that there was more to come?
Thank you.

Main reason the higher time frame being the 15m.

The cluster of closes shows an inability for higher prices for 45mins, and of course we up thrust. As react volume increases which is healthy for our short. From a 15m time frame perspective we want to hold this trade

Via the 5m we have the highest volume for 3 hours (relative to local bars this is 2 to 3 times the size) The upthrust itself, has much better price action, closes weak on it's lows under the previous close etc. On the way down we break the demand line which has held for 2.5 hours. The bar in question does indeed bob back up with a pop in volume. Does this one bar negate all the negativity we've seen? My target first target was D then C, these are better support levels in my opinion.

Picture attached

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