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The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action
We falsely think that the Wyckoff's method is to predict future. There are no crystal ball. Such method do not exist and I think it is not anyone's intention. Even if somebody provide this analysis whould you believe in it? Would you rely on it in your trade? Feibel's here on this thread describe the setups for most probable winning situations. You maybe know better than me ( I am new to this) that we are trading during this specific setups. In Wyckoff's method - spring, tests, up-thrusts, apex, climax..... We need to recognize and apply them.
Other methods are maybe less or more effective. Say, trading diversions or donchian bands like in Michael More strategy here in elite journals.
Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:
Effort vs. Result
Structure
Trend Channels
Upthrust (setup)
Confluence
2 bar Top Reversal (setup)
Waves
Comparative Analysis
Classic Wyckoff Setup ''Rally Back to Ice''
Thank you very much. This time I didn't miss the confluence J. thanks to our prior discussions. Seems thinking in terms of wave strength/ weakness makes much more scense. Uptrusts and other formations are not so visible on tick charts.
Market can give some surprise reversal. Europe is quiet now, down. Would take a lot of volume to reverse this train. As a beginner I always expect reversals. I have to fight it within myself, this gambling nature. Phsychology.
@Grantx,
Let me ask you something.
Do you go through charts after the trading day is over? And what do you see there and how does it help you in real-time trading? Or it doesn't help at all?
Personally me previously when I was looking into charts I saw nothing.. "Price went there, then - there, bla-bla-bla, so what?" Now I can understand that this or that kind of behavior MAY lead to such reaction etc. Basically thanks to Feibel I have TERMS and DEFINITIONS I can use. Of course I read a couple books as well as many other information from different sources. And yes: now I can some patterns real-time and react accordingly. What makes me sad - when I miss some formation which I could have used! But this is connected to self-confidence of course. You have to believe your eyes and have strength to react. Since I'm new to trading this part is damn difficult! Also I don't draw all those channels - I just can't hold my position longer than couple minutes.
Of course Wyckoff's method is not a holy grail as any other trading techniques. Everybody from our community is just trying to shape somehow the market.
Completely support the idea of discussing markets online during trading session.
What volume style do you use for tick charts?
What I learned is that on 3500 tick charts volume bars look very similar, there's not much difference in volume size, how could that be?
I had a question brewing in my brain regarding this as well; I know he probably uses a Weis Wave or similar, and I've attempted to use them on tick charts but haven't been able to glean a lot of info from them... I'm sure it's my lack of interpretation skills
Practice is the answer. I am in the same situation, pal. I draw channels, though.
The danger is possibility of talking yourself into unreal picture. See what you want to see, so to speak. Price action, structure and volume - 3 elements. Patience, discipline and courage.
No. I trade a single instrument and know the chart in great detail from the daily all the way down to the one minute chart.
The only reason I look back in time is to determine intraday liquidity zones, high/lows, and to get an overall feel of sentiment.
Attaching a story to price movement is completely useless and a waste of your time. Its guesswork at best. Storytelling is a mechanism of your ego mind that is useful in certain aspects of daily life but is damaging to your trading.
Let me try and explain.
See the attached daily chart of eurusd.
I have 3 levels marked that are absolute and indisputable proof of where price reacted, reasons dont matter.
How does this help going forward?
We already know with 100% certainty that price will achieve one of those levels again.
The why does not matter. The how does. That is where feibels technical analysis comes into play. When you learn to scenario plan, you will be able to implement his method in realtime a lot more effectively.
Eliminating the story telling machinery is like taking a laxative and purging yourself of waste product.
Also, not being able to hold your trades is something you really must work on. Your behaviour response to discomfort is to exit your trade early because removing yourself from a losing trade brings a feeling of relief. This is a bad habit because you are managing your emotions not your trade opportunity. It might make you feel relief short term but when you look back at the day you will kick yourself for not being committed.
Let me put it this way.
1. ALL trading books are about what already happened.
ALL posts at this forum are about what already happened and what we could have done based on that PAST information.
Do you agree with the above? Then why are you reading all the above? And how do Feibel's posts differ from the rest?
2. Currently you are trading some setups, right? So how did you develop it? How did you IDENTIFIED them firsthand in the very beginning when you were just starting? Because if you want to work with something, you have to start with identification first.
Or are you saying that markets are completely random? Then how are you going to operate in such an environment?
I'm not advocating Feibel's posts, but rather trying to understand how you differ information in this thread and all other sources of information?
Thanks for pointing, that is out of question. I'm just practicing selection of trading opportunities and fluent entry at the moment. When confident, shall move to position holding, playing with different contracts size etc..
roadahead I'm not sure where you're going with this. Are you asking a question or trying to educate me? Either way I suggest you start your own journal and clarify your viewpoint.
Cheers
