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The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action
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The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action

  #21 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Feibel View Post
Wyckoff principles in today's action:

Accumulation
Absorption
Springs x 2
Shortening of the thrust

PDF attached (4 pages)

Today's trading showcases pure Wyckoff at its best. Most important edition of the S&P Chronicles to date

@Feibel your analysis is outstanding. I have only just stumbled onto this thread and boy am I glad I found it!
How long have you been trading for?

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  #22 (permalink)
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Feibel View Post
Wyckoff and VSA principles in today's action:

Shortening of the thrust
Upthrust in previous area of supply
VSA testing - high volume areas

PDF attached (3 pages)

Hi Feibel I think this is a crucial concept to understand and Im hoping that you can explain what you mean by this:


Quoting 
If bar D was a test, it failed as it drew out high volume. I would expect some testing action of bar A, high
volume areas like to be tested by the well funded traders, if indeed they want higher prices, supply has to eradicated and
tested.

Bars A (with large volume) and D push down to test demand but I dont understand how that eliminates supply?

The way I see it is bar A:
1. triggers early short players.
2. Activates long stops.
Wont this have the effect of creating supply?

The way Ive always thought about it is that the funded players are creating liquidity to buy into so that they can get into the market more gracefully without too much notice. So:
send a spike down, traps shorts, trigger stops, create top heavy supply and buy into it. But what you are saying goes against my (very limited) understanding and Id really appreciate your thoughts on it.

Thank you

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  #23 (permalink)
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Grantx View Post
Hi Feibel I think this is a crucial concept to understand and Im hoping that you can explain what you mean by this:



Bars A (with large volume) and D push down to test demand but I dont understand how that eliminates supply?

The way I see it is bar A:
1. triggers early short players.
2. Activates long stops.
Wont this have the effect of creating supply?

The way Ive always thought about it is that the funded players are creating liquidity to buy into so that they can get into the market more gracefully without too much notice. So:
send a spike down, traps shorts, trigger stops, create top heavy supply and buy into it. But what you are saying goes against my (very limited) understanding and Id really appreciate your thoughts on it.

Thank you

Excellent question:

Bar A - is climatic in nature, breaks the channel becomes way oversold etc. It closes firm so we know buyers were present. This bar breaks a support level - we have momentum traders, support and resistance traders, this action induces sellers to become active, which is excellent news for the well funded/professionals. They need supply so they can match
their orders. If for example they had an inventory of 50k contracts to fill, they need sellers to emerge to fulfil their quota.
BUT as we can see bar A had a great deal of volume, before mark up they need to be 100% sure that supply has been eradicated. Bar D is left to the retail market, the professionals have withdrawn any activity. Bar D in an ideal world would have a very small spread, closing on its lows with very low volume. Here we have the opposite, spread is decent and volume has INCREASED, this tells the professionals that supply is in the market. This would be a failed test. Hence we need more testing at lower prices. Bar D doesn't eradicate supply, its testing for supply, which failed as supply was present.

Hope this helps


Last edited by Feibel; June 14th, 2017 at 11:06 AM.
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Thank you for posting such a detailed journal thread. I try to trade a similar method with s/r trading and wyckoff spring / upthrusts as entry signals. I have a question about your charting method for your ES chart. Are you using a continuous regular chart or a back adjusted chart? I am fairly new to futures and I am just getting used to the roll over process. I am curious if you look at absolute price levels and if you back adjust.

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Eug911 View Post
Thank you for posting such a detailed journal thread. I try to trade a similar method with s/r trading and wyckoff spring / upthrusts as entry signals. I have a question about your charting method for your ES chart. Are you using a continuous regular chart or a back adjusted chart? I am fairly new to futures and I am just getting used to the roll over process. I am curious if you look at absolute price levels and if you back adjust.

Appreciate the kind words

From the Chronicles, as you know I like to keep things as simple as possible. Nothing clever or fancy, for that reason I use a regular continuous contract.

Hope this helps

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  #26 (permalink)
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ES 14th June 17

Wyckoff and VSA principles in today's action:

Hidden upthrust
VSA - 2 x No demand setups
Stopping volume

PDF attached (3 pages)

Attached Thumbnails
The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action-es140617-1.pdf  

Last edited by Feibel; June 14th, 2017 at 04:29 PM.
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ES 15th June 17

Wyckoff principles in today's action:

Upthrust (textbook)
Springs x 2
Wyckoff governing principle - Effort vs Result
Change of behaviour
Structural confluences
Buying and selling waves

and a little Trading Psychology

PDF attached (4 pages)

Attached Thumbnails
The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action-es150617-1.pdf  

Last edited by Feibel; June 15th, 2017 at 07:08 PM.
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ES 16th June 17

Wyckoff and VSA principles in today's action:

VSA - no supply setup
First pullback setup
Shortening of the thrust

PDF attached (3 pages)

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Feibel View Post
Wyckoff and VSA principles in today's action:
...

Fantastic trading this week. I am learning something reading your PDFs.

I have a question regarding the last two days (Thursday-Friday) where on both days you identified a no supply test after a run to the downside.

My question is how do you differenciate between a pullback with declining volume and concludes it is good for continuation of the trend or no it is just a test of supply in a downtrend which has become weak and so i expect this pullback to be a trap for those who wishes the trend will keep going?

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On this example below which occured Friday, we have a pullback in the middle near the letter D that kept going down but to me it has the same look as the one you have described as beeing a test of supply. It seems to me it is easy to be wrong on a bar per bar basis.
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Last edited by trendisyourfriend; June 16th, 2017 at 09:01 PM.
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  #30 (permalink)
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@trendisyourfriend

Excellent question:

With the Wyckoff and VSA method the trader gains his edge by reading the whole chart. We focus to the left of the screen and work our way to the right. Looking back through the chronicles I initiate a trade by building a picture of strength or weakness. The bars have to be contextually correct (ie. in the right conditions)

With tests, there must be one vital piece of information. We have to come from IMMEDIATE strength/ a sign of strength.
Example from Thursdays action:
.
Supply to B - (weaknesss)

Rally to A - price action fairly strong closing firm with decent spreads (strength) ,yet volume declining (weakness)

Bar A - upthrust, (weakness)

The reaction from A - looking deep into the first 3 bars, volume has declined (strength), the closes are off the lows neither strength or weakness (merely noted) the market is finding it hard to push down. Compare the nature of the selling pressure here to that of B - worlds apart.

The following bar increases in volume closes weak, right at support (weakness)

Bar C - dips under finds no further supply, reverses to close firm wiping out most of the previous bar. Due to this action we KNOW that buying must of have occurred due to the high volume from the previous bar. This is a spring/2 bar reversal at support, we're unable to test the demand line from our trend channel (strength) buyers are being more aggressive. This is super strength, (immediate strength), many Wyckoff traders would pull the trigger here at the close of C
Sellers had ample opportunity for lower prices, did not capitalise

Bar D -test

Bar E - the bears are unhappy, its the bulls that have gained the info here. Its not that demand is weak, we have demand directly behind us, its that supply is weak. Where have the sellers gone from B and the pullback to C?
I prefer the test at E as we actually dip into the spring bar, testing for supply.
With a test we need an immediate response, this confirms our analysis 100%. Mark up has begun. Here we get a picture perfect response - great price action, (decent spread and increase in volume) Hold the trade, looks like we have found the days low.

A test should have lower volume than the previous 2 bars, small narrow spread and come from immediate strength (there are various VSA test variations. For my trading I use this test as its most useful for my style)

Question 2 - I can see your thought process. For myself there are not enough signs of strength as yet. Buying at A and C. Looking at the bar itself (near D) the spread is almost the same size as C and contextually its in in the wrong place. (background conditions) - The closes are rounding over, does this make sense? yes (supply to the left). This action tells me the market is coming down. Huge effort at E, we would expect downside progress yet the following we reverse to close back above support. 2 bar reversal/spring, label this as you will, it's unimportant, the key is to understand the process. Then bar G a beautiful little test, instant buy. Immediate strength behind us

A spring bar for example anywhere else but at support is just another bar, it has to be used in the correct conditions for the bar in question to have meaning

This process takes time and effort. It's of benefit to go through the charts, build a story of strength or weakness. Look for immediate strength then look for test bars. Used on a daily time frame, this trade is very powerful. Test bars are left for the whole day with no professional involvement, it gives horrible flat trading for the intraday, BUT of huge significance to the large operators. Thinking in multiple time frames is a key to fully understanding the cyclical nature of the markets.

Hope this helps

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