NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action


Discussion in Emini and Emicro Index

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Feibel with 219 posts (1,490 thanks)
    2. looks_two trendisyourfriend with 25 posts (58 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Rrrracer with 22 posts (58 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Grantx with 17 posts (58 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Feibel with 6.8 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Grantx with 3.4 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Rrrracer with 2.6 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 trendisyourfriend with 2.3 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 155,087 views
    2. thumb_up 2,094 thanks given
    3. group 161 followers
    1. forum 461 posts
    2. attach_file 200 attachments




Closed Thread
 
Search this Thread

The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action

  #231 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

First of all congratulations; you are able to read the markets using the Wyckoffian/VSA approach and your skills are developing nicely.

In reference to being aggressive, this is merely down to the individual and of course is discretionary, a couple of attempts to initiate a position from a personal viewpoint is fine. Many years ago I would jump in and out of the market 15 plus times a day, hence over trading was a obstacle that I had to overcome and I'm sure this has affected many other traders at some point during their development.

Entry 2: I can clearly see your thought process, a weak pullback after a COB wave, and there lies the problem - is it a change of behaviour? It breaks the apex, yes, and we get a decent move up, however it doesn't break the overnight high, price is still contained, it doesn't accomplish anything of real value. If the market breaks the overnight high from the same drive up and the same pullback occurred, a trade would be instantly executed. The bar near resistance that has a spike in volume is of concern, as we have no upside follow through.
One shouldn't get burned by this trade as a stop would be placed in one of 2 possible locations 1 - directly under the low by a tick, maximum of a point loss, which is fine, or under 1 (2728.00) this for my personal appetite is too much, 6.00 points is 2 to 3 times my average stop loss. Many traders would even place the stop under the low of the day or many professional traders would use mental stops' when dealing with large orders (100's of contracts) we do not want them visible on the ladder/exchange for obvious reasons (stop hunting)

Entry 3: The major concern for me was the no demand rally at resistance, followed by increasing higher volume as we react, this is not healthy. The fact we test resistance after a drive up with 5 times less volume than the previous attempt doesn't instil confidence, and with the lack of structure, I simply let the trade pass - there is always another trade.

It appears you have taken the entry via 3 which is excellent, remember the secret is to become the best version of yourself within the markets, not a cardboard cutout. We are all made and wired differently, if you find internals like TICK, TRIN etc valid and useful, then by all means use them if they help. From a personal perspective I learned early on in my career, that I do not need any other indicators or ''chart jewellery'' it will take a lifetime to near perfect the Wyckoff/VSA approach, I admire the simplicity (if there were such a thing) and beauty of the method, still to this day I consider myself a student of the markets as I continue to learn on day to day basis


Excellent questions, keep up the good work,

F


Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
NT7 Indicator Script Troubleshooting - Camarilla Pivots
NinjaTrader
Better Renko Gaps
The Elite Circle
NexusFi Journal Challenge - April 2024
Feedback and Announcements
New Micros: Ultra 10-Year & Ultra T-Bond -- Live Now
Treasury Notes and Bonds
Deepmoney LLM
Elite Quantitative GenAI/LLM
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Get funded firms 2023/2024 - Any recommendations or word …
59 thanks
Funded Trader platforms
36 thanks
NexusFi site changelog and issues/problem reporting
25 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
19 thanks
The Program
18 thanks
  #232 (permalink)
 
ProLeagueTrading's Avatar
 ProLeagueTrading 
Victoria British Columbia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
Posts: 20 since Feb 2013
Thanks Given: 176
Thanks Received: 43

Feibel,

You're amazing, thanks so much for taking the time to write that detailed response, I don't know if you even realize just how much help you've been making in my trading and I'm sure without a doubt to so many other's who read your thread!

I've spent thousands of dollars on education, software and crazy "jewelry" as you put it but still struggled. But simply by reading your chronicles and thought process here for free it has been such a huge shift in my development and understanding of the markets. I can feel I'm really turning the corner now for good!

Best regards

Follow me on Twitter
Thanked by:
  #233 (permalink)
trader14
Denver, CO
 
Posts: 39 since Apr 2014
Thanks Given: 78
Thanks Received: 65


HI Feibel,

I’ve followed your thread from day one. You do some nice work my friend!

I think you’d agree it takes a lot of work to get to this level of understanding. For those who follow your excellent work I wish them much success on there journey. It’s well worth the effort!!

I’d like to off a bar by bar annotate of how Wyckoff looks at a Friday’s Trading Range.
Below is a 5 min. chart (without volume) as we read price action from left to right.
I must apologize up front, it’s kinda long. But covers price action in detail.

1. A reaction bar out of a range – high end close also tells us it’s a buying bar as well.
2. The re-test of yesterdays high is offering some resistance as we form a springboard.
Price action also gave us a 2 bar spring – anticipate higher prices. A proper long entry after the spring bars close - our risk is about $75.00
3. JOC (jump over creek) from absorption, (a springboard is demand absorbing selling).
4. A terminal spring (a shake out bar) – the CM took out the stops located under the lows of this range.
Please note the close of this bar! It’s a red flag as it closed off the bars high – selling is present and not a reason to take a short position. It’s just a red flag!
I believe the CM does this on purpose. Most see this bar as a bullish type bar and will buy the 4a bar thinking it’s a breakout bar high end close so it’s a bullish market.
They are unable to identify the red flag and are trapped as the marker reverses. This in NOT a Sign of Strength (SOS) A true SOS would ber price action at #12 below.
5. After putting a new high we get a reaction bar indicating more selling – it’s here we can define the trading range, I’ve used the #3 JOC as ICE
WHY? it’s where markup started. The close of this bar is a proper short entry, w/ selling in the background, risk approx. 125 bucks
6. More selling bars - a nice reaction after the #4 red flag – note ... both bars close off the lows, this isn’t supply entering the market. A lower close would indicate supply entering the market. BIG difference!!
The first down bar was key - a warning, the second bar confirmed the first bar warning. WHY? Please see #7.
7. Were back to the #1 bar that started the overnight up move. The bar is unable to close below my horz. line. You have to ask, Is this a spring?
If your still holding a short position - at a minimum cover the short position and lock in profits!! You have a red flag in the background!!
This price action could be labeled as a LPS (last point of supply)
8. Bar 8 is a confirmation of the LPS, notice the bar made a higher high and closed above the last dawn bar (#7) – we now know demand is in control of the market!!
I’m not aggressive, and will wait for a reason to enter a proper long position w/ reasonable risk. This is ending action for a move in the opposite direction.
9. After the LPS we are in an AR (automatic reaction) anticipate a secondary test (ST)
10. The market gave is a nice hing as it retests the LPS.
You can also label this as a two bar spring of the #3 bar
11. The close of this bar is a proper entry... were back to a support area. It’s also the 5th bar of the st (markets typically correct 1~3 / 3~5 bars)
12. A nice reaction with high end closes as price moves back to creek. For this time frame - we have a 4 bar Sign of Strength.
13. Selling once again tries to take control. Demand was unable to move price out of the trading range. The battle is here! Supply must overcome demand, who has nothing to prove, they are in control of the market. We know this from
reading the background. We can identify buying bars, selling bars that were overturned with buying, a spring,, re-test of the spring, a sign of strength. Simply stated this is a market with NO supply.
We are now moving into the right hand side of the TR – anticipate a directional move from this area as we watch price action unfold.
14. Another hinge.
15. A lack of demand. A different reaction from the last hing huh. Demand was unable to take the market higher. So we can anticipate a move lower to find demand or a selling type bar.
16. From the lack of demand position, supply has to take control. This bar’s close is mid range - a lack of supply type bar, it was unable to extend the down move as buying pressure came in and halted the reversal
17. Icing on the cake!! A two bar spring. Once again in a weak position buying is present. An excellent example of a add on market position if long from #11 or entry if you looking to enter the market.
The market just formed another springboard position. A JOC is near!!
18. We are in the right hand side of the TR the last absorption before the JOC and markup.

The JOC (jump over creek)
Markup phase.
19. The weak close on a reaction bar, is a good reason to cover your position.

  #234 (permalink)
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 trendisyourfriend 
Quebec Canada
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
Frequency: Daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 4,527 since Oct 2009
Thanks Given: 4,171
Thanks Received: 6,018

No losing trades since the beginning of this journal, perfect entries/exits each time (no timing issues). Is this realistic given the nature of the beast?

Thanked by:
  #235 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017


trendisyourfriend View Post
No losing trades since the beginning of this journal, perfect entries/exits each time (no timing issues). Is this realistic given the nature of the beast?

These are fair comments and I too would be sceptical, however........

Right from the get go I have never said this was a journal my exact words from the very first edition ''After reading many a forum about the trials and tribulations of a day trader (usually ending in disaster.) I wanted a thread that gives an insight into one mans process and showcase that it is indeed possible to make money from the markets. This is my approach to the markets, it may or may not help others; after all one mans junk is another mans treasure''

The trading within the Chronicles is how I trade, it may take a couple of attempts on occasion to enter, this is perfectly normal and not reflected in the Chronicles. As previously stated the Chronicles were originally made for my own benefit, there is a third sheet for personal use that is used for development purposes.
In reference to the entries/exits I thank you for the complement, using this methodology and by being able to read the market bar by bar as it unfolds is a skill that most trades do not possess and has to be the biggest advantage of this method ''being precise to the nth degree''

There have been many traders around the world that have sent private emails thanking me for the time and effort I put into constructing the Chronicles, and it appears it has helped many traders to unveil the smoke and mirrors that surround the markets. It's up to YOU the reader to determine whether there is anything of value within the Chronicles.

All the best,

F

  #236 (permalink)
Ozquant
Brisbane Queensland Australia
 
Posts: 220 since Aug 2017
Thanks Given: 167
Thanks Received: 380


trendisyourfriend View Post
No losing trades since the beginning of this journal, perfect entries/exits each time (no timing issues). Is this realistic given the nature of the beast?

Hell NO

  #237 (permalink)
 vimla1918 
New york U.S.
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Trade Station
Trading: ES Stocks
Posts: 4 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 140
Thanks Received: 6

Hi Feibel,

I am following your Chronicals as a learning process of Wyckoff and VSA method , and how it can be applied to your Day trading.
this process seemes to be very logical and feasible to me , and fond to be helpful in my own day trading of ES.

I don't care if these are your Real trade or not

Please continue good work

Thank again

Vimla

  #238 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017

Thank you very much for the kind words;

Trader14 has highlighted a principle that hasn't occurred in the Chronicles as yet. Fridays action (kindly illustrated) is what Wyckoff would call re-accumulation, this more or less has the same structure and principles we would associate with ''normal accumulation'' except for one major element - a selling climax. True 'accumulation' price will be trending down for some time and towards the end of the downtrend volume would expand, spreads will increase and the market prints a selling climax (ultra high volume and wide spread) often closing in the middle/near the highs of the bar. Re-accumulation we are already in an uptrend and the market simply re-accumulates; builds cause for another move up, whilst eradicating weak positions, so the only real difference between the two is the how the accumulation starts. However normal accumulation is a more powerful source of cause and this equates to much better trading opportunities, especially if using higher time frames (4 hrs upward) if swing trading we can hold for a much longer period

Just a couple of observations; technically 17 is not a spring, there is no platform for the spring i.e. a support level, these 2 bars are testing supply to the left. 10 is also very dubious, again I wouldn't classify this as a spring.
Springs are the one of the most bullish powerful setups within the Wyckoffian playbook (technically the concept originated via Bob Evans) you need to see clean support levels that have a decent amount of white space between the touches (distance) and a decent push up that creates the white space (picture an upside down U) with price action adhering to the outside. Of course its never quite so textbook and perfect, but more often than not it will resemble something along those lines

Excellent observations well done! I must say it's refreshing to see fellow Wyckoffians

Hope this helps, all the best

F

  #239 (permalink)
 
Rrrracer's Avatar
 Rrrracer 
On the road
Webinar Host
Trading Nomad
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradingView
Broker: Oanda
Trading: FX
Posts: 2,512 since Feb 2017
Thanks Given: 17,582
Thanks Received: 9,752

Just started checking out Wyckoff and discovered this thread. Looking forward to working through it; thanks @Feibel.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal
Thanked by:
  #240 (permalink)
 Feibel 
Surrey, UK
 
Posts: 215 since Jun 2017


Wyckoff and VSA principles in today's action:

Shakeouts?
Waves
Structure
Overbought
No supply (wave setup)
Shortening of the Thrust
Change of behaviour?

PDF attached (3 pages)

Attached Thumbnails
The S&P Chronicles - An Amalgamation of Wyckoff, VSA and Price Action-es090118-1.pdf  

Closed Thread



Last Updated on September 30, 2020


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts