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All The Usual Suspects (Trading Mistakes)
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All The Usual Suspects (Trading Mistakes)

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
Ripon CA
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: ES, TF
Posts: 3 since Dec 2016
Thanks: 1 given, 2 received

All The Usual Suspects (Trading Mistakes)

Hey guys, I am new to the forum and new to day trading. I just scanned all the archived webinars and picked "An Afternoon with Big Mike" from back in 2011. I really did not expect to sit through a 3 hour video but it kept hitting home. If you are new to trading find that one and watch. There was lots of advice for someone like me starting down this road in the hope of becoming profitable. One point clearly made was to start posting wherever you are in the journey, so here I write;

I don't mind studying hard and have spent lots of time trying to figure this business out. I started out like most just wanting to see an example of a trade setup that I might be able to copy. Which indicators should I pay attention to, etc. I see now that every trader goes about this slightly differently but I still needed guidance or somebody to copy to get started. Unfortunately, all I got was confused. Oscillators, ticks, market internals, market profile, support, resistance, pivots, magical Fibonacci predictions, supply & demand points, wow! Lots of people want sell me training that will make me rich in no time at all. I had no idea. The best value has probably been just watching the market move, candle by 5 minute candle so I can start getting a feel for it.

So, I have taken a few trades in ES and CL each. I want to learn to trade these but so far my reasons for getting in where I did, long or short have been terrible. In the case of the ES, I just had a feeling it was going to move my way, which it did, but only for a couple of ticks. In the case of the CL, I was feeling bearish due to the increasing rig counts and the likelihood of more shale oil producers coming on line at over $50 per barrel. Well, that might be true for a 6 to 12 month trade, it is a dumb reason to think a short term day trade will go my way. Mostly, I either watch paralyzed because I am unable to feel confident about what is about to happen next, or I get in and watch until my stop gets triggered. I made some profitable trades early on but they were nothing but dumb luck. I had no idea what I was doing.

I trade options. The math model for options assumes stocks move randomly (barring a little skew). There is definitely a random element to short term movement (barring strong trends) and that fact was at the root of an epiphany on futures trading. I was looking for long trending runs with one contract. I noticed some people here are more successful with more contracts but with a goal of only a few ticks. A goal of just a few ticks is MUCH more likely to be successful. I haven't changed anything yet, but; more contracts for fewer ticks makes sense as long as an element of randomness plays a part in the candle by candle movement of the instrument (chop?). That might be obvious to you guys but for me, it is one more important step in my education.

Next steps for me. Stop changing charts and adding indicators. Each day, I will watch a 5 minute ES chart with obvious support & resistance marked, add in Overnight Lows & Highs and maybe previous days value areas. Then just watch for a reversal near one of those lines or a break-out to go long or short for a few ticks and try to end up with a positive P/L. I am only trading one contract. Not because my account cannot handle more but because I need more experience and confidence before I can handle more.

More to come, LawMur

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Elite Member
philadelphia USA
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: TD Ameritrade, Infinity Futures
Favorite Futures: options, Russell emini futures
Posts: 74 since May 2011
Thanks: 50 given, 51 received

Trading Crude - Strategy to consider

Suggested strategy is - draw a fib between the lowest and highest candle from 4:15 pm to 9 a.m. - have a 5-min opening range study on your chart.
For the fibs, use 1.886 - .1.50 - 1.235 - 1.00 - .886 - 0.0 - -23.6, -50. -886. 1.00, -123.6, -1.886

When price goes above the 5 min OR go long; when below the 5min OR go short - your target is .886/1.886/-1.886 - use a 11 ticks stops.

When price moves above your entry by 3 ticks, move your stop to your entry - as the price continues to move, continue to move you stop.

When you see price "jiggling" do not enter at this point. Accumulation / distribution is taking place in this range. When it breaks above/below the "jiggle" range is your entry. To start you may want to capture 3 ticks, as you get better at the personality of crude oil, look for 11 ticks, then 22 ticks.

I use a 133 tick and 1 min chart vs many who use an 800 /1600 tick and 1/5 min charts.

Best to you in learning to trade crude (CL)

Last edited by trendfriendpa; April 29th, 2017 at 09:01 PM. Reason: Add information
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