Identifying balance areas - Emini Index Futures Trading | futures.io
futures io futures trading


Identifying balance areas
Started: by thomasblake Views / Replies:545 / 9
Last Reply: Attachments:1

Welcome to futures io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Identifying balance areas

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney, N.S.W., Australia
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 21 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 56 given, 4 received

Identifying balance areas

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).
Hi,

I was just wondering if someone could please tell me if i'm heading in the right direction.

How do you identify "balance areas" on the day time frame? Am I right in the chart below?
It's from the ES yesterday. We one-time frame up for four 30 minute periods and then hit a stopping point, pulling back.
We form an area where two sided trade occurs.

So, the scenarios now (ignoring long-term context and just thinking on the day timeframe.....)
1) Initiative buyers (on the day time frame) take control, we breakout from 2190.75, pullback and head higher
2) We breakout from 2190.75, fail to build volume and acceptance, and responsive sellers take us back to the VPOC of intraday balance and possibly to the balance lows
3) Initiative sellers (on the day time frame) take control, we breakdown from 2188.75, pullback and then head down to the VPOC of the up move and possibly the low of day (unlikely given the bullish sentiment)
3) We breakdown from 2188.75, fail to build volume and acceptance, and head back to the intraday balance VPOC and possibly to the balance highs
4) We continue to rotate and build volume + acceptance in this tight range for the rest of the day.

Image attached below.

Thank-you for your help. Times are in EST. RTH only.

Tom


Last edited by thomasblake; August 16th, 2016 at 04:41 AM. Reason: Add image
Reply With Quote
 
  #2 (permalink)
Quick Summary
Quick Summary Post

Quick Summary is created and edited by users like you... Add FAQ's, Links and other Relevant Information by clicking the edit button in the lower right hand corner of this message.

 
  #3 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Germany
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Other
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, 6E
 
Posts: 2,353 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 3,945 given, 5,690 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



thomasblake View Post
Hi,

I was just wondering if someone could please tell me if i'm heading in the right direction.

How do you identify "balance areas" on the day time frame? Am I right in the chart below?
It's from the ES yesterday. We one-time frame up for four 30 minute periods and then hit a stopping point, pulling back.
We form an area where two sided trade occurs.

So, the scenarios now (ignoring long-term context and just thinking on the day timeframe.....)
1) Initiative buyers (on the day time frame) take control, we breakout from 2190.75, pullback and head higher
2) We breakout from 2190.75, fail to build volume and acceptance, and responsive sellers take us back to the VPOC of intraday balance and possibly to the balance lows
3) Initiative sellers (on the day time frame) take control, we breakdown from 2188.75, pullback and then head down to the VPOC of the up move and possibly the low of day (unlikely given the bullish sentiment)
3) We breakdown from 2188.75, fail to build volume and acceptance, and head back to the intraday balance VPOC and possibly to the balance highs
4) We continue to rotate and build volume + acceptance in this tight range for the rest of the day.

Image attached below.

Thank-you for your help. Times are in EST. RTH only.

Tom

Concerning your question: Yes, "balance areas" are shown by MP / VP TPO peaks - like e.g. PoCs.
From that you can derive standard scenarios (which you did).

Concerning the use of "VPoC" there have been x books some years ago. If you do your own
backtests you will find why the "V" is basically meaningless and why most of these authors
have been sinking into obscurity accordingly.


Last edited by choke35; August 16th, 2016 at 11:47 AM.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to choke35 for this post:
 
  #4 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
New Waverly
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Infinity Futures
Favorite Futures: CL, ES
 
Posts: 17 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2 given, 8 received


choke35 View Post
Concerning the use of "VPoC" there have been x books some years ago. If you do your ownbacktests you will find why the "V" is basically meaningless and why most of these authors
have been sinking into obscurity accordingly.

If I am understanding you correctly, you are suggesting that the VPOC is meaningless? I'm no expert, but in theory, with volume profile, VPOC is one of your most important points. It often acts as a reference point should there be a confirmed reversion much like the mid point and the VWAP.

Like I said, I'm no expert so If I'm wrong in my assumptions, please correct me and if at all possible direct me to some useful material regarding the matter. Thanks in advance!

Reply With Quote
 
  #5 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Germany
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Other
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, 6E
 
Posts: 2,353 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 3,945 given, 5,690 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Futures Edge on FIO

What value do you place on the webinars on FIO?

 

awaddle View Post
If I am understanding you correctly, you are suggesting that the VPOC is meaningless? I'm no expert, but in theory, with volume profile, VPOC is one of your most important points. It often acts as a reference point should there be a confirmed reversion much like the mid point and the VWAP.

Like I said, I'm no expert so If I'm wrong in my assumptions, please correct me and if at all possible direct me to some useful material regarding the matter. Thanks in advance!

It always depends on your trading system. But I strongly suggest not to blindly believe the
tons of BS that have been written about POCs, volume POCs, virgin POCs and the like.

The prove is in your numbers - i.e. systematic backtesting will show you if your system (if
you have one) has a meaningful edge using xPOCs. In all other cases a POC is what it is:
One line among many others that shows where a lot of business has happened.
(But as I understand you, you are looking for a predictive egde, not for late indications of
past events.)

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to choke35 for this post:
 
  #6 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
New Waverly
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Infinity Futures
Favorite Futures: CL, ES
 
Posts: 17 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2 given, 8 received


choke35 View Post
It always depends on your trading system. But I strongly suggest not to blindly believe the
tons of BS that have been written about POCs, volume POCs, virgin POCs and the like.

The prove is in your numbers - i.e. systematic backtesting will show you if your system (if
you have one) has a meaningful edge using xPOCs. In all other cases a POC is what it is:
One line among many others that shows where a lot of business has happened.
(But as I understand you, you are looking for a predictive egde, not for late indications of
past events.)

I have certain systems that I run on CL and NQ but neither have anything to do with auction market theory in anyway. For the ES, I use a discretionary approach along side some statistical studies that I have modeled in excel. Maybe it's because of my view of systematic trading and the way in which I use it on other products, but I simply don't see how one could approach volume and market profile in a 100% systematic way. I feel as though auction market theory as a whole is intrinsically discretionary. I like to think it is an art.

At any rate, I appreciate the input. But my use of volume profile seems to be different than yours as I use it to identify levels of importance and once I see the price approaching those levels, I watch the DOM and let it tell me what to do using my own discretion and intuition.

Reply With Quote
 
  #7 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Germany
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Other
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, 6E
 
Posts: 2,353 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 3,945 given, 5,690 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


awaddle View Post
... as I use it to identify levels of importance and once I see the price approaching those levels ...

That's exactly what I meant with "one line among many others". From a theoretical point of view this special kind of
"discretionary" trading is covered in depth by https://futures.io/traders-hideout/7364-random-line-theory.html .
But any approach is ok if it works for you - even reading tea leaves

Reply With Quote
 
  #8 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
New Waverly
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Infinity Futures
Favorite Futures: CL, ES
 
Posts: 17 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2 given, 8 received


choke35 View Post
That's exactly what I meant with "one line among many others". From a theoretical point of view this special kind of
"discretionary" trading is covered in depth by https://futures.io/traders-hideout/7364-random-line-theory.html .
But any approach is ok if it works for you - even reading tea leaves

I read the thread and this is a thought that I have pondered over before. However, I don't see how that is the case given what I am talking about. The reason I intervened here was because you seemed to be dismissing the significance of the VPOC all together when I have seen first hand day after day, generally on a choppy sideways kind of day rather than a trend day, that there is significant, profitable price action that occurs at this level; exploitable, in my case, through signals given on the DOM.

I apologize for the poor spelling and the massive run-on sentence there. lol

And tea leaf reading is an important part of trading!! It's called homework!!

(lol Just kidding of course.)

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to awaddle for this post:
 
  #9 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
St. Louis
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: equity and fx futures and options
 
Leon of Pizza's Avatar
 
Posts: 29 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 6 given, 16 received

some suggestions


thomasblake View Post
How do you identify "balance areas" on the day time frame? Am I right in the chart below?

Hi Tom, Balance on a daily time frame would encompass a number of days aggregated into a single profile. Its the correct profiling method for this market, imo, but doesn't look like you're deploying it correctly. So, I'm presuming you're preparing tomorrow's strategy for an intraday entry - based on today's profile. If I'm reading the chart correctly, you've plotted a profile for the morning session and another one for the rest of the day and you've identified the various POC, VAH/L for each. Including your mid points, you have 8 inflection points to work with. That's too much info for me. Consider using a simpler tactic: use a single profile for the day, abandon the mid, VAH/L and keep the POC. Add YH/L and any historical S/R prices such as the channel line resistance (anchored to the 4/20 and 7/20 session H) that was testing as you took the pic. That would provide you 4 prices of interest to work with in this example and maybe 5 or 6 if today's trade was within a historical price range. Its a smaller list and therefore better to develop experience and its more diverse because it includes historical prices and at least 2 beyond yesterday's value area. You are unnecessarily restricting your perspective to the least interesting range - tight and inside yesterday's range.

I wouldn't consider a POC to be virgin until at least one new POC develops before the 1st one was tested, so the VPOC's efficacy is higher in trending markets. I pay less heed to a single day's profile in the context of a multi-day flat range and would go to an aggregate of several days. Consider adding price ranges and measured moves. Look for trades at the edges to revert back to the larger aggregate POC. When prices start trending again, then switch back to intraday profiles.

Or, continue to develop the intraday profile strategy, but switch to a product that shows some 2-sided trending price action.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Leon of Pizza for this post:
 
  #10 (permalink)
Elite Member
knoxville tennessee usa
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: nijia trader
Broker/Data: A.M.P. I.Q. ....C.Q.G.
Favorite Futures: ym
 
Posts: 323 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 78 given, 123 received

well that is a good question


one clue i use if the market prints 3 tpo wide or more ,,that is a clue it is starting to balance and a rotational day is what i am looking to trade. if you have a small range IB it is in fact balancing do not fade a brake out of the IB go with the brake out, if you know how to ID the trend you can use a 30min volume profile and take a pull back to the high volume node with a stop under the bar. but be careful with the stop. even if you have strong trend one time framing most of the day. it likes to one tick a 30 min. bar... looking for the stops of new market profile traders...put it 3 ticks under the bar on the ES

Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > > Identifying balance areas

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

Mastering Trading Pysychology w/Brett Steenbarger & Trading Technologies

Elite only

Spring Grains Outlook w/Sean Lusk @ Walsh Trading

Elite only

FIO Video Journal Challenge featuring NinjaTrader ($2,000+ of prizes)

April

Process above all else w/Anthony Crudele @ Futures Radio Show

Elite only

Machine Learning - Quantitative Trading w/Martin Froehler @ Quantiacs

Elite only

Ask Me Anything w/Patrick Rooney @ Trading Technologies

Apr 18

Ask Me Anything w/FuturesTrader71

Apr 19

Machine Learning w/Kris Longmore

Elite only

Market Analysis w/Dave Forss

Apr 25

Introducing iSystems with Stage 5 Trading

Apr 27
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
identifying potential markets for trend following? payooli Beginners and Introductions 15 July 24th, 2016 07:44 AM
Identifying Trend DAys (early) budfox Emini Index Futures Trading 27 June 18th, 2014 02:10 AM
Identifying the kind of day early on DarkPoolTrading Traders Hideout 13 May 23rd, 2012 12:10 AM
Value Areas Big Mike Terms (Glossary) 0 April 22nd, 2012 04:11 PM
Identifying market cycle Azharr Traders Hideout 1 January 28th, 2012 06:11 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:42 AM.

no new posts
Page generated 2017-03-23 in 0.17 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 23.23.49.196